Natural gas… completed 5 waves down?

Nat has has completed what appears to be 5 waves down with the gap down this evening to finish up the c leg lower; if this count is correct the w3 of w3 should take over… I'll be posting a chart a bit later…

 

Position :long nat gas …feb and March contracts from 335-340. 

Good trading

will march corn to bottom in mid jan ??????

 -Above is a look at the daily corn chart for march and the scenarios that could play out . the first scenario if infact corn has completed the wave 4 of the 5th is that we try to make a break back toward the low and and fall short of the contract low. (truncation) .
Second scenario is that wave 5 moves the distance traveled by wave 1 which will breach the low by a couple cents to 325.
The third scenario has 2 targets that that are very close as they come in at 2770-2820.  There is a report on wed so I will be watching this market as I believe a long term bottom could not be far off.
the only thing that would invalidate this current count is that 447.25 cannot be taken out.  time frame for this to occur will be roughly be around the middle of jan for corn to bottom out.

Lets see  how we play out  
good trading
CK

Apple stock topping out???

Apple stock looks to be within a topping range here and I will be starting a short position in the price range from 117-125 as the short side risk to reward is getting very favorable. 

Good trading

CK

march bean oil at a glance

 Was looking at the bean oil chart and it looks interesting.


on the daily chart march bean oil is looking like its currently trading in a corrective wave and could be about finished and ready to resume lower price action.today I will be looking for a rally back to the 3380-3418 area and possibly higher if the high of 35.39 is taken out. im leaning more toward that 3380-3418 resistance holding.( target on the low side comes in at 2827)

good trading
CK

natural gas...... setting up for a push higher

 natural gas has been very choppy as of late and it is looking like we are putting in a wave 2 expanded flat as labeled above in this 60 min intra day chart. this looks to be setting up as a textbook formation and as I watch this possible 3rd wave unfold i will need a push to the 409 level and then a bounce in a 4th wave followed by a decline somewhere in vicinity of 390 to 404. after complete we should see a reversal back to the high of 364 and breakout in a wave 3 to a first target of 540.

good trading
CK
for more trade set ups feel free to write at commoditykid.gmail.com

Is cocoa getting rdy to sprint higher?

Want my count drop me a note…

Japanese yen update…

Almost got the bottom in the Japanese yen son the buy at 8423 per my last post… yen rallying nicely and this final 5th wave lower may have finished out. If so this could be a very nice trade. 

Good trading

CK

Euro currency … update.

                       

                         

My original thought is that we were putting in a 4th wave 3-3-5 expanded flat but it seems that we are in a 5th wave of w3. with a deep 4th to come. Trgts for the 5th wave to end come in at (12325 12273 and max at 12151 .) Or a truncation may occur. All three options are still on the table…Still about s 100 pts from my trgt 

Then we get a 4th wave correction possibly taking us back to the 130 level…. 

updated corn for march contract daily... are we ready to start the 5th wave down ?

 

MARCH CORN

The daily chart of march corn above there are several scenarios that could take place .  We are currently trading at around the 377 area and I would very much like to see march corn take out 400 to complete the upside push and then fail here and retest the low. My targets come in at 326 and then max out at 283.00.  I like the 283 target area a bit more if we can manage to push mrch corn above the 4.00 price as this would align the weekly chart with the daily shown above to the exact price. either way we will be in a 5th wave down and we can do one of 3 things so i am still watching as of now and if targets are reached i will be moving back into the corn market and building a position. 

(for this count to stay validated corn must not breach the wave 1 low of  447 1/4.)

good trading

Japanese yen… adjustment in price target

In my last post I gave a bad target of 8493… after looking over charts this weekend I have lowered my target to 8423… this would be the .618 target of w1-w3.  So we still have about 160-180 points until my downside target is hit.  This is actually in line with with the dollar as we still have room on the $ to move higher to a target of 89.23.  Both the targets are derived from the dec contracts.  

Good trading

CK

japanese yen target .... bottom in sight?

The japanese yenlooks to be very close to putting in a bottom as we are currently closing in on a downside target of 8493 and I will be taking a long position here as I believe the 5th wave will complete here. (again this is a low risk trade as I will be risking about 30-40 points on the downside.)

 as we still have about 90 points on the down side left to go I will be watching for this target to hit.

Cotton thread…low risk buy?

March cotton has possible ended the 5 of 5 of 5 as it held the 58.65 . As the second target for the 5th and final wave lower. It does present a low risk buy with a stop placed below the day's low …

If we happen to break decisively lower the last target comes in at 54.97… we will see what happens…

Good trading

Euro currency 3-3-5 flat for w4?

The euro currency looks as if we could be putting in a complex 4th wave 3-3-5 formation. If this is the case the next move should be higher in a 5 wave sequence to above the  end of the A wave to a target of 128.50-129.50. To finish this flat formation… I will be buying a break over 12507 intraday as this sets up the wave 3…

Sugar trade… weekly n daily analysis

The weekly sugar chart after a sell off to around the 1330 level back on sept 19 2014 did not breach the low made back in May of 2010 setting up a 1-2 1-2 on the weekly and as luck may have it as of today a 1-2,1-2 is setting up on the daily chart…( for this to stay intact prices must not breach the 1589 level on the March contract as that would negate the 1-2,1-2 count on the daily chart.)

 we also have commercials back to the zero line in this market..  I am looking for much higher prices in the coming years so this scenario would call for a break higher in prices to a target of 18.07 on the daily chart in a w3 of 3 of wave 1. 

(Trade: today I will be adding to my positions in the March contract at 16.04 and May contract at 16.34.  ) to negate this formation mrch would have to break below 1589.  We will see what plays out.

Weekly sugar chart above

Natural gas … contracting ending diagonal?

It appears that we are hovering around 360 level as it has pushed thru the lower part of my target and has reached the next lower band of 3.586 with a slight push thru… to 357.  This is also looking more and more like a contracting ending diagonal for the 5th wave of a c leg and the rally late yesterday was the w2 of 5 and w3 of five could have completed this morning . Now I will be expecting a push back to 363 in a 4th and then the final 5th down to a possible new low and then the reversal.  We will see how this plays out…. Still positively  long! 

Natural gas… update

The c wave of the natural gas market appears to be at an end. Just a note:(Also a bullish candle formation has taken form after a lower open this morning) and a 1-2 intraday appears to have formed and we are in the 3rd wave higher that played out this afternoon. We will have to see but if this is in fact the end of the push lower ,a sprint to higher prices shouldn't be to far off in a wave 3 of 3.

Indices topped the w4 today?

The indices have moved far enough to the upside for a full wave 4 and I am expecting the wave 5 lower to take over  any time now.   Trgt for the downside in the Dow futures comes in at 15695.  

Natural gas… bottom in sight

Natural gas looks like we are creeping up on a bottom that could target 364-370 in  the front month contract. As we are in a low risk , high reward target zone I will be taking a position around these levels via the dec contract. 

Crude oil… I'm jumping in

Dec crude has reached a point that I feel comfortable buying … as the risk reward has moved to a level that I cannot pass over… therefore I am buying this morning  @ 7970.  Let's see where we go…

Good trading

CK

Crude oil… almost there

Crude oil is within a hair of the underlying trend line and I'm expecting a throw over of this lower trend line to finish up this final leg down. We are headed into my buy zone… what I will be waiting for is a 5 wave pattern intra day higher…

wave 3 starting in the indexes.?.... finally time to correct?

 

the wave 3 of wave looks like it has started in the indexes..... as we have broken the .786 on the downside in the $INDU from the rally from 16674. a take out of 16674 sets up the wave 3 lower.  if this is the case 16k should be right around the corner.

CK

Crude… bottom in sight

Crude as seen here on the weekly chart has broken down in what appears to be a B wave triangle. This last push down should be the ewave and I will be watching for a throw over of the bottom trend line in the E wave to complete the formation. Price targets are around the 84.50 level. Eating for this formation to complete. A break back over 96 will be the first clue that the c wave has taken over. 

intra day dow jones 1 and two look complete..... do we get the wave 3?

intra day the dow jones on the rally on friday has pushed up to the .618 level and held. A move now back to the the low of last thursday sets up the wave 3 to a target of 16600 just eyeballing it.I'll post a chart a little later.

positions: staying short

Dow jones 5 min chart…wave 4?

5 min chart of the dow looks like we are carving out the 4th wave and .382 will be approx 17140 or there about. Then I'll watch for the 5th down to finish wave 1. 

Corn… 5 waves down almost complete

As you can see from the chart above it looks as if we are working on the 5th and final wave lower of this expanded flat. Trgts on the downside for wave 3 of the 5th is around the 3.25 price range. I'll be watching for this 4th wave as it should be deep and a complex formation… let's see if we get the 4th this week

5 waves down almost completed on yen?

On the weekly chart it looks as if 5 waves down is close to completing or complete. The lower trgts would be around the 89.00-90.00 level.  So I will be watching for a bottom and a zig zag for a wave 2.

Extremes

There are several markets that have been showing reversal signs including the indices( as we are currently in the target zones for short positions , grains and the dollar… charts and updates to follow. 

Hourly s&p chart another setup to sell?

An hourly chart shows a nice 1-2-3-possible 4 and the 5th wave up to come. Targets on the topside will be 2020-2030 if we get a full w 5 if we have in fact finished the corrective 4th wave. 

The two blue dots connect the beginning and end of w3 and a push down to 1980 would be the .382 but we have move far enough for the w4. This final leg may finish on news from the fed…

Remember wave 5's can truncate, move in equal length of wave 1 or extend. We will see… staying aggressively short! 

Request for lumber count

Lumber looks to be testing the 328-330 level in a flat formation for wave 2,and a test of this level is definitely possible.( per nov contract)  this looks to be a triangle of some sort for a wave 4 wedge or triangle of a completed 1-2-3 down and almost completed w4 with the 5th down to come. 

Longer term- the picture looks bullish and a wave 2 zig zag looks to have completed and a push back to the highs sets up the w3 higher. 320-330 should protect the downside as a w4 triangle looks to be playing out on the weekly chart with the 5th higher to come.  

Good trading

CK

Sugar… target hit oct… mrch w1 invalidation?

Sugar has hit another target on the downside at 14.33 and again I will be making an effort to get long here as I believe a bottom is close at hand. I will be getting long the back mths of mrch May time frame as it he charts here are still managing to hold into a possible wave 2.  Although mrch is 1 tick away from invalidating at 1659. The next target will be down near the 1630 level. Let's see if we hold here…

Targets for dec crude…

The last wave of the corrective b wave is setting up perfectly and I will be purchasing the dec crude contract at the target range from 85-88 … 

Sugar- short and sour

All bets are off on oct sugar now and this move looks impulsive lower and target comes in at 1433 if wave 3 is 1.618 of wave 1…. 

Watching for now. 

Morning sugar… sweet or sour?

Front month sugar is really playing with invalidating the wave one that started back on the 28th of jan at 1470. Until this happens though the count remains intact as a deep wave 2 that must complete or invalidate this count…. As I have seen many wave 2's act like this in my trading career a push back over the 15 via oct contract will be needed to close back over the weekly trend line… 

Also as oct is at a discount to march and May contract by almost 2 cents. There is a great likely hood that if this is the bottom and we do hold that we start to close that gap… 

Position:

Long position taken today at 1473 oct with a 7 pt stop) as I wanna be out on a decisive break of 1470. Very low risk trade. Let's see if we are right. Should know very soon!  

Good trading

Is dollar Rally a mirage???

The US dollar looks to be moving toward the e wave target at 85.05-86.00. Of the B wave triangle… if this is the correct count the US dollar could be in some trouble. E waves will often throw over the trendline and fail… we will see what happens here. 

Dec crude oil…

Dec crude is continuing to slide and the 85.00 -87 price target is looking very attainable at this point to finish the ewave of the triangle. Watching

Sugar invalidation of wave 1 ???

Sugar is approaching an invalidation point for the wave 2 at 1470 . I have covered my position as of the 1st of this week tues and will be waiting for this to play out as the rally this morning has failed miserably. On a side note wave 2's are allowed to completely retrace wave 1 but cannot go under the beginning of wave 1 which in this case is 14.70 on the front month oct contract…

Back from vacation!!!!

After a brief vacation last week I'm back and it looks like there are some things setting up… if you would like any particular market updated counts please feel free to write!

 

Euro …

The euro after sliding last week has formed what appears to be possibly the bottom that I have been waiting for and spoke of about a week ago in one of my posts.  I will be watching for a gap higher this evening as I am still holding long from 132 and again from 13130 today.  Trgts come in at 13350-13450. 

Euro currency

The euro looks to have finished the psh on the downside. Will be taking a long position here 13202. 1st Trgt comes in at 13380-13400.

Sugar… wave 2 in progress intraday?

5 min chart of march sugar looks like 5 waves up completed and we are zig zagging into a w2. 17.55-17.60 first target for wave c to conclude.  A close back near the highs today would set up a w3

Nov beans… new low n reversal?

Is a new low and reversal in the cards today?  I will be adding to positions in nov under 1040. Happy trading. This could be a big one! 

Dec crude oil update. E wave in progress

Above is the weekly chart of crude oil and it looks like the ewave of the triangle is finishing. Targets come in 88 as we are setting up this market for a big run up in my opinion. (Watching this market as of now). 

Sugar… to hold or not to hold! .786

After the continuation grind lower and again down another 6 this morning oct sugar is struggling to even have an up day. Currently we are still looking at a possible deep wave 2. The 1450 on the current oct contract is the .786 level and a common target for wave 2's to travel to. We must not by any means push below the 14.70 area. A perfect situation would be a bounce in a 5 waves starting today. ( The mrch contract .786 is 17.28) and we are currently trading just above that number.  

Wave 2's often are steep zig zags and this last leg down C wave is almost identical in length to the A wave. 

Dow must hold levels…or else!!!

A break of the b wave @ 16518 would not be good as it sets up the 3rd wave lower to around 15010 if wave 3 is just 1.618 of wave 1… on the intra day chart.

The weekly Dow jones has retested the break down around the 16730-16850. Imm my opinion the top has been put in and the e wave lower has begun…

October crude wave 2 almost at an end?

Oct crude on the daily chart is creeping up on the first target of the possible wave 2 end at 94.90.  Watching

Downside target hit on nov soybeans!

The downside target has been hit this morning on nov beans at 1040… and my buy orders were activated…. Onward and upward!!!! 

Softs and some currency.

-Sugar has been trying to break higher but has been unable to do so. We are still in the possible deep wave 2… holding long positions in mrch and may. 

- dec cotton has been grinding higher as of late with a possible start of the wave 4 higher towards 67-69 in a deep correction. Holding long from just under 64.00

- British pound : the pound is now trading at a possible wave 4 level so will be watching this level to hold.

- Euro currency : looks to be in a w4 triangle with the E wave higher still to be completed. With a push lower to possibly 13320. Currently flat as of this writing

Updates… sugar, cotton, corn euro and cable

I will be updating these markets this evening

Thnx

CK

Euro… Mrng update

The euro looks as if we are currently in a w4 flat of wave C… this should be a more complex pattern possibly in the form of a triangle or a flat that should target the 13475-13520 level on the upside. 

Sugar update… did wave 2 complete?

Sugar after completing 5 waves higher from the start of jan looks very much like it has possibly completed a nice shallow double zig zag for a wave 2. A push back to the high of 18.50 sets up the wave 3 and targets 2211 if we get a full wave 3.  This is a risk reward here to my liking and I will be adding to my position in the mrch and May time frame. 

GBP bounce coming?

The British pound is coming up on some support that comes in at 16785 and I'm expecting a bounce back to the 169-170 price target.  

dec corn quick update

above weekly corn

 

Here are two corn charts.The one above is a weekly chart and the one below is a daily. As you can see we are in the final stages of the 5th wave down in what appears to be an expanded flat for a wave 2 as seen on the weekly chart. The question is where will this 5th wave end. it very well could end somewhere in the vicinity of 3.00but do we get a bounce before then. my feeling is yes but we will get a possible wave 4 of the fifth wave and it should correct deep most likely back to around the 4.00 again we will have to wait and see.

interesting to see that both commercials and large specs are long this market. The only ones that are short? u guessed it small specs

sugar update..... deep zig zag for wave 2????

Sugar still is grinding lower as of this morning in a possible wave 2 deep double zig zag.... for this count to remain we will need to see the low that was made on this contract (oct) hold at 15.72 . If we do infact hold then a push back towards the high will set up the wave 3 to the 22-23 mark. but first Lets see if we can get an up day. 

There is a pattern that is repeating with commercials and large traders.... can you see it ?  the small trader is also reaching an extremely short position which again makes me think that the next big move higher is getting ready to play out.

we will see

euro trade update.... still some room on the upside?

As you can see we are pushing lower in the $EC and my buy is still in effect as the commercials are showing a extreme net long position and large traders are showing a extreme net short. what concerns me at this time are the small traders and are at an extreme net short also.  i'm looking for a break back to the upside in the coming days. this actually works well with the current count as i have a triangle forming. The d wave could have possibly completed just over 139 or still has some room back to the upside. a break back over 13515-20 and hold will be our first clue this d wave is not quite over yet.


Current position long from 13375-13360  

Getting your mind ready for trading…let me show you

In trading these markets ,all traders

Need to be able to see the trade and 

Visualize how it should play out.

Everything you want to see happen.

Simply visualizing and picturing ur plan

the way you want it to unfold has a

wonderful effect, and it helps with your

Internal confidence when trading.

The exercises I use are easily learned/applied having a lasting effect on the 

mind. 

Enhancing the trading experience 

          Let me show you how

CK

Cotton dec update and questions answered

Cotton after sliding thru my last support at 63.97 by another 2 full points to just above 62 is looking like this w3 could have concluded. (If you would like my updates for when I get in and when I get out then you will have to email and I can inform you when I take a trade on and off) . Unfortunately I don't know where the bottom may be! I just trade my signals.… That being said I am holding long at just under 64.00. 

The stock market and the dollar will dictate the Feds move!

Its of my opinion and my opinion only that the fed will not only keep the balance sheet the way it is but start adding as the Dow starts it's decent. This will obviously put pressure on the dollar and move it lower. When this move by the fed fails to halt the market decline this is when the about face will occur and interest rates will be forced higher to try to protect the US dollar from further decline. 

This is how I see it playing out in my head . 

British pound to 180?????

British pound appears to be in a wave  3 that could extend up to 180+ Despite all the talk of a strong US dollar. We are however very close to the uptrend line channel that wave 3's normally tend to trade. Trgts come in on the downside @ 16866-16878.  

Position currently long at 16884

Dec cotton trade…

Dec cotton has pushed to the lowest target in a w3 so If this is a reg wave 3 of 1.618 we should see a deep w4 start soon.  Premium bought 63.95 dec

Euro currency low risk trade

The euro is currently at a possible bottom here at 13375 and in my opinion a small risk high reward scenario. Premium bought 13375…

Sugar update…

Sugar still looks to be in the last and final leg down in a c wave of wave 2. Commonly i find that wave 2's especially in commodities will often retrace .786 of w1 and sometimes further. My targets come in from 16.33-16.46 for and end to this w2. 

Unhappy with your current broker????want 2 see a window into how I trade… I will be more than happy to work for you in refining your trading techniques. It will be my pleasure. 

Email: Commoditykid@gmail.com 

Euro currency…bounce coming

Sept euro currency looks to be ready to bounce here possibly back to the 13560. Let's see if we do. 

Weekend look at nat gas

Sept daily nat gas…

Natural gas is holding a .786 at around the 3.77-3.74 area for a possible deep wave 2 of major wave 3.  This flat count would be invalidated on a break below the low made back in nov 2013. As long as we hold and do not break this level wave two could finish at any time… 

Dec cotton… bottoming at 68.00-64.00? ?

After a small bounce from just under 68 back to 69 in dec cotton it appears that the downside target of 64 and an end to this decline comes in play… setting up as we could turn quickly. 

Intra day corn dec

The move up this morning was corrective and 5 waves down intraday can count as complete. Lower trgt comes in at 363 1/2. Order to Buy premium 364.0

Facebook wave B of the expanded flat finishing today?

Looks like we are in 1 of two scenarios? 1st scenario being that the a wave completed at 54 n change and the B wave of the expanded flat wave 4 will finish today with a reversal lower and a C wave should be expected that moves prices well below 54. This is my first and main count, as wave 2 was a simple zig zag. 

2nd scenario would be that we have completed the 4th wave and the wave five could finish shortly. 

Let's see that reversal today

Will this be the headline soon?

As I watch the morning news on cnbc  I hear many different arguments about how the economy getting better as people are moving back to work. As a technical trader I try very hard to concentrate on what is happening on the charts and not so much what people are saying. I must say, again that This chart pattern on the Dow looks to be complete.  I'm fully expecting the E wave lower of this triangle to start at any time now. This move will most likely be a sharp sell off and catch many of these hedge fund traders on the wrong side of the market. We will see how we play out! 

Natural gas…wave 3 finished and rally?

: We are currently still holding around the .786 of the move up from last Nov.  This last push down does look impulsive and I can count 1,2 and a 3 that had a target of 3.81 and 3.74 on the daily chart. If this is the case we should see a possible rally in a 4th wave that should be deep and take us back to the 395-408.  Maybe the rally starts today? 

Nov beans… morning commentary

Nov beans slide continued on mon and tues but like corn the chart reads somewhat different. I can now count 5 waves down as almost being complete as a push down to the 1040  may still possibly materialize. That being said this leg down as shown in the chart above is looking complete and the bull run is ready to resume. All the signs are pointing to much higher prices in the next couple years…