March Wheat ...... contracting ending diagonal to end around the 540 price range?

Here is another look at the march daily wheat chart. Picture is starting to look like one more low towards 540 might take place after a small bounce back to 560.0.. A small throw over should take place that moves under the trend line and then a sharp rally should ensue if this is the correct count..

Big wave patterns in a bunch of commodities

Looking at the grain markets… we appear to be putting in  large wave patterns that are acting like w2's . Monster wave patterns usually proceed monster price moves. So don't be surprised if you see big moves in commodities over the next couple years.  The fact that everyone is bearish on commodities is an even greater sign in my opinion.  Markets bottom on great supply and over abundance. Then there is a catalyst… what it could be is anyone's guess. Stock market collapse , dollar devaluation , bond rates too low maybe… would make sense…  we will see where we go. 

wave 3 for corn possibly setting up......

Dec corn chart for Jan. 31st 2014

A break over 455 and a close near the high of 460 sets up a wave 3 higher to a price obj of 486 on the Dec. corn daily chart above.

-important fib numbers to watch: .618 @ (4.44 1/2) and .786 @ (4.40 1/2)

- Order placed to buy premium on a break of 4.60 

- Invalidation of this current count would be a break back under the low of 435.0

Sugar… a sweet set up or just a head fake?

Sugar has held the piercing bullish candle low of 1470 that was made on the daily chart on tues. 

Intra-day we are set up for a wave 3 higher to the 1525-1530 price that could very well signal that this was the end of the D wave with the E wave to come. A weekly close above 14.94, 15.08, or even better 15.22 will go a long way as we have bounced off of the lower trendline .  

Front month continuation chart going back to the low in 03.....

Facebook stock topped out yet…???

Facebook is currently trading over the 60.00 level this morning on some better than average add sales… I don't believe this will hold. My target area for this 5th wave would be 64-65 for the TOP to be put in…. 

Canadian dollar w2 playing out (update)

Canadian dollar weekly chart really does look good and ripe to start a wave 3. The .618 retrace would be around the 8770 as wave 2's usually travel too. The second scenario is we could be unfolding in c wave of a triangle and that would cause for a push down to the 84.50-85 level per futures.

Some interesting side notes:

-Commercials are at an extreme bullish here so this could very well bounce. 

- small specs are at a weekly extreme net short

-86.00 level is the prior wave 4

Hard red winter wheat march...... Bottomed in a wave 2?

Hard red winter wheat looks interesting as we are currently sitting on the price where wave A is equal to wave C to complete the zig zag. and right on the .786 fib support number.

buying 4.98

TaRget if this is a zig zag wave 2 would reach as high as 16.00 + over the next couple years

heres my take on wheat........ short and long term

March wheat looks to have finished or very well could be very close to finishing this 3rd of the 5th wave lower.... and im expecting a deep corrective wave 4 to push back over the 6.00 price. As of this writing wheat is trading down 5 cents @ 5.60 n change.

If indeed we are finished with this c leg of this expanded flat in wheat for wave 2  a break over 7.20 will be my first indication that a bottom is in place.

Short term price:  its very possible we could see a test of the 525-530 area as expanded flats typically moves past the point of where wave A ended on july 4th 2011 which would be @ 565.00 as seen on a weekly chart.

 Long Term projections

I believe that much higher prices are coming over the next 3-5 yrs. My price targets for wheat in this  time frame are would be somewhere in the 22.00 price area

Trade today:  (buying march wheat at 561 )

orange juice update...... C leg down to start?

Here is a quick glance at the OJ daily chart for( May). Looks like Juice  might press to the downside into a c leg to the 127.33-132 range. wave A will equal wave C at 133.45 if we unfold as a simple zig zag. It also happens to coincide with the .618 retrace and the .786 where wave 2's most often correct to. 

If however we don't break 138.10  and we  push back toward the high at 150.15 it sets up the wave 3 higher to the 180+ area.

Piercing pattern daily candle on sugar?

Yesterday sugar gapped down on the open and preceded to move higher throughout the day closing near the days high. This is also one of my fav technical indicators to trade. It's called a piercing pattern bullish candle stick. We also had five waves up intra day on a 5 min chart. For this count to stay valid we need to see yesterday's low hold. Support comes in at 14.86 and 14.78 ( we are testing these as I write.

Here's what the peircing pattern looks like.  I have an order to buy on a break over 15.10 per march contract

Is a commodities boom coming? My Top 5

              

Here are my top 5 that I believe are going much higher in the next 3-5 yrs

OJ

Sugar

Natural gas

Corn

Wheat…

I have posted on these markets before and will be updating charts and commentary in the next couple days. 

Sugar … not looking so sweet

Sugar is really dragging out this 5th wave… support comes in at 1450 on the march contract. (Stop was triggered last night @ 15.78 on a position that was long from 16.07 on the oct contract. On sidelines for now as price targets for March contract come in at 14.50 -14.60. 

do you know what wheat is gonna do????? me neither......but ill give it a whirl.

 Here's a glance at march wheat

Can this be a complex wave 2  in the form of a expanded flat? If so we could be on the verge of a big wave 3 to push prices much higher over the next couple yrs.My targets on the downside for this finishing wave 5 come in at  5.23-5.30 per front month contract. Invalidation of this count would be a move under 425.1/4

Corn .... Could we be going to 12.95 + in the next bull run ????

weekly corn chart for Jan 27 2014

Corn looks to be doing one of two things 1.) finishing up a c wave of an exp flat for a wave 2. The last part of this formation consists of a 5 wave pattern down and it looks like we have finished the 3rd wave which leaves us with 4th wave up and 5th wave down to complete the formation. (The alternate would be that we are in a finished ABC zig zag. for the wave 2.) the first scenario would call for a corrective wave higher then one more possible low. The second would call for the wave 3 higher to start soon. Targets would be 12.95 if wave 3 is 1.618 times  wave 1. Invalidation of the current count would be prices declining below 2.96 3/4 set back on 9/30/09. The count would still paint a bullish picture but would call for more correction

 Commercial interest is net long and specs look to have added to the short position. 

April live cattle trade

April cattle short is looking good so far and has almost reached my target of 139.50-138.50... still holding short April position from 142.00 as the cattle on feed report looked somewhat bearish on Friday.  Let me know if anyone needs a copy of the report I'll be more than happy to send it to ya.......

sugar.... who has it right ? commercials or small speculators....

March Sugar 2014 update

Sugar has been everything but exciting the past few trading sessions.Major Resistance levels are around the 16.50 area which appears to be the 4th wave of this final 5th wave down that is still taking place. The commercials have increased there long positions while the small specs have increase their short holdings.Its been my experience that being on the side of the small speculators is hazardous. That being said commercials are often early in their price movement forecasts. So chose wisely!  

positions : still holding long from oct 1607 and resting orders to buy on a break over 17.17  on oct contract.