Aug fats ...... short positions covered and updated count.... its so clear so what was i looking at????

Aug live cattle are currently in the last leg of the 5th wave extended  move higher and I have been miserably short this market for the last month or two and have been dead wrong. As of now the count that makes the most sense is the one that I have listed above. This count shows wave 1 a wave 2, a small impulse for wave 3 higher a deep 4th wave and a 5th wave that  is currently underway. My new target for this final wave to complete is somewhere around the 16360 level. I'm happy to say I'm out of this market and will be watching for this count to complete. Sometimes ya gotta just admit when your wrong. 

dec wheat deep wave 2 coming to an end?

Dec wheat looks like we are finishing up a possible wave 2 that could terminate at any time here and start moving higher. The lowest target I have is around the 485 and if this level comes into play I will be very interested in trading this market from the long side.

check out whats coming.....

I will be starting a subscription service soon for traders that want certain groups of commodities. These groups will be the grains : (corn wheat, beans ). The meats: ( lean hogs ,fats and feeders) and Softs: ( sugar coffee cotton cocoa and OJ. )

 Pricing will be a annual rate and start as low as .50 cents a day per group and you will be only paying for actual days the market is open for trading, which equates to ($125.50 for the year ).More info to come ....

In the mean time if you would like to see what you will be getting with the service and a 2 week trial please email at commoditykid@gmail.com and you will start receiving the updates daily.

a look at the softs commodities mainly sugar and oj ( update)

Orange juice sept contract has traded down to a possible wave 2 level on a flush out of yesterday and today. I will be watching here as we are deep enough for this move to be a wave 2 flat nearly completed with this move down. target comes in at 150.90 and  146.36....

sugar - has tested the .382 level in a wave 4 and its possible we may see a push towards the 1814 basis july in a 5th wave of wave 1. a break above 18.28 and 18.57 sets up the wave 3 to my first target of 22.05.

Aug fats.... they are giving me fits

This market has certainly been great for the longs and my count has been off on this market so I went back to see where I might have been off.  Its a little more clear as we are still in a wave 3  that could target 15060. if we get a full wave 3.
 I am still painfully short this market from the 143 level.we will see if this price target hits.painfully holding short and have resting orders to sell a breach of 15050.

my target remains the same as Im expecting a deep decline in a wave 4 to the 13650-13700 area.

is it finally time to tip the feeders????....heres what i need to see

AUG  feeders have hit my target of 210.35 and actually was limit up hitting 211.00
I still believe that a top is close here to finish wave 5 of wave 3. I need to see a 5 wave push lower intra day to consider selling this mrkt.
IF we are close to correcting we should expect to see a deep zig zag for a wave 4,  as wave 2 was a flat correction. This should target 194.51 and most likely lower to 189.64.  (patience is the key here). still waiting but im getting antsy to short this market.

- I will put up a trade alert if and when I see what im looking for.

Just an obsevation about the corn market

If there is one thing that I have learned trading any market and its a rule i live by trading . Is that if the small trader is heavy/extreme net short any market,  chances are that the market is set up for a reversal to take them out. Im looking this same set up in corn and we could be in for a (20 cent plus) run higher here in the next couple days. I could be wrong but I hope I'm right! Lets watch and see.  holding longs. 

dec corn updated count plus a second option. ( nothing has changed much)

Dec corn after posting some gains last night may have topped into a shallow wave 4 that could trade around in some kind of a complex triangle before moving into a wave 5 lower. The count of last week is still in play until the low of 435 is taken out.
(the alt count is a wave 5 lower and a 1st target of 425.

# holding longs

nov beans daily chart and count

 Chart above showing the wave 1 and wave 2 scenario with wave 3 targets


There are a couple different counts that im playing with here The bullish count  is that wave 1 is finished and a shallow wave 2 has been put in or we are just now starting the 5th wave higher in an extended wave 5 that could target the 1484 level. both of these counts would call for higher prices. (For the wave 5 scenario to play out the 1198 level must not be violated.)

The second scenario is that we have finished 5 waves higher and currently in the B wave of a zig zag for a wave 2 with the c leg lower to come.

The fifth wave scenario I gave is my preferred count as of now just as long as 1198 does not get violated.  a break of 1252 on the upside is going to be the first clue that my count of the 5th wave higher  may be correct.

no position here as of yet
 

Natural gas wave 1 of 5 completed?

Wave 1 of wave 5 looks to have completed and the high we saw of 488 on 6/16 appears to be a b wave of an expanded flat for possible wave 2 of wave 5 which could target as low as 438-443. we are in the vicinity of the .618at 450 and the .786 comes in at 443 n change. this move down from 6/16 looks impulsive and this would be in line with the 3-3-5 wave structure of a expanded flat. I will be watching to see if 448.9 holds

watching this market for now to see how we play out.

My goal for you…

As you can see by my blog here I follow these markets consistently. It's my job and passion to help my clients capitalize on markets in any condition.   Unfortunately,most have only experienced commodity trading as a no win scenario.

 While I would enjoy the opportunity to trade with you and show you this method. What I'm more interested in is that you are learning a method that will help you make sense of any market you trade. To learn a plan of action for yourself, develope that plan and be confident to trade it so that  you are not surprised by any market action. 

You know that gut wrenching feeling you get when the market moves against you on a day to day basis and your hoping it will turn around soon? ( that's you not having a plan) ! It's time to stop that feeling. 

Email me:  ( commoditykid@gmail.com) and let's talk…having a plan and being confident in it makes a world of difference believe me. 

Allow me to show you what took me over 20 years to learn.

CK

What to look forward too in the Week ahead…

The start of a new week will bring somesetups in the commodity market that I will be posting on. 

As I don't have time to post them all, I have had several requests to do an evaluation on the soybean market with a current count that I will update on Monday Mrng. So come check back.

Want an update on a market I haven't covered? I'm just an email away… 

Commoditykid@gmail.com