Is crude fixin to get messy.........

 crude oil is just hanging around this 97.50-98.50 range.... looks very much like a complex wave 2 with a series of overlapping waves that looks to be almost complete.88-89 is still my target area for this double zig zag to finish.  

-    afternoon Update: looks like crude could take a shot at 102.00 we are building an ascending triangle on the weekly chart 

come on corn .... lets get this party started

Dec corn has been hanging around teasing me with a possible wave 3 higher for the last couple days. The only thing that would invalidate this count would be a break of the prior low of 435 and would tell me that we are not quite finished with this c leg of an expanded flat for a wave 2. A push down to 452 may entice me to play from the long side here as my risk on the trade diminishes.

DEC CORN DAILY CHART

Is wave 2 complete or do we have more downside to go in sugar?????

Sugar looks to have completed a 5 wave up pattern and now is working on the wave 2 of wave 1.

support comes in at the prior wave 4 @ 15.47 on the front month march contract.

-   If this is wave 2 before a wave 3 targets would reach as high as 18.30-18.50

-  Wave 2's can retrace as low as the entire wave 1.the norm for wave 2's is to retrace .618 to .786 of the first wave. This would be somewhere between the 15.05 and 15.33.


Resting Orders placed above 17.22 on the( Oct) contract and .618 support comes in at 16.28. 


Lets see if we can catch a wave 3

March sugar daily chart

Set up in place for a w3 breakout in dec corn

Dec corn still hanging around the wave 3 breakout level..  

Order placed to buy premium 360.1/2 stop.  Let's see if this works out....

Live cattle..... finishing up the wave 3?

April live cattle look to be very close to finishing up a wave 3 around the 143-144 price range( if the above count is correct. ) for this count to remain correct we should not see prices violate the 13605 level. a correction to the 137.08 level very possible as we look to be in a minor c wave correction.

positions I am currently out of my cattle position at 142 as my short term price obj was met on the downside.

The commercial traders are still heavy net short this market so that 137 print may very well come into play.

A little about wave 1

Wave 1 is an impulse wave that is made up of 5 sub waves as seen in the image above. Notice in this labeling that wave 2 does not go past the start of wave 1. 

The second thing that you should notice is that wave 4 (as shown above) does not penetrate the end of wave 1. If this should happen then your more likely looking at a corrective pattern than an impulse move. 

5th wave trgts for the flying hog mrkt

The hogs are in a 5th wave higher and could in fact hit as high as 108.17 on the June contract. Will be watching this market for signs of a turn as this market is counting as complete at current levels but 5th waves can do  3 things. Two of them have been ruled. 1 more to go. 

Could we be ready to ride a wave 3 in corn

Dec corn set up for a w3 higher? After breaking .786 fib number on the upside yesterday we have set up for a w3. To trgts of 485-487. 

Sugar wave 2 correction down coming???

Sugar could be starting the wave 2 before the wave 3 higher begins…. Targets for the wave 2 come in @ 15.04-15.33. 

Wave 2 coming in the Dow?

The Dow jones this morning looks to have completed the 5 waves lower to complete wave 1… a bounce to around the 15900-16000 is what I expect for a wave 2 in the form of a zig zag.

(Premium bought @ 15300. )

-side note is the commercial traders have bumped up the net longs on this last slide lower. 

sugar ...... lookin sweet ( update)

Sugar looks to be completing the 5th wave of wave 1 to the upside and now i will be watching for a wave 2 if in fact wave 5 of wave 1 is ending today. 

Natural Gas..... targets... will wave 5 of 3 extend???????/

 

My original target of 568 for the wave 3 fell short. So now i will be looking for wave 5 to extend to a price level of 642 on the daily chart.

 

Wave 2's in elliot wave...

Wave 2's in the wave formation :

- Wave 2 : a wave 2 is a corrective wave that usually will retrace .618 to .786 of the prior wave 1 in the form of a zig zag. . Sometimes it will even go as far as 100% of wave 1.  The only rule that must not be broken is that it MUST under no circumstance break the wave 1 starting point. 

These are examples of wave 2 formations and what they look like. For now we will just be concerned about identifying the lower zig zag formation. The best way to do this is to go and look at past charts and see if you can pick them out. EX(the Canadian dollar appears to be putting one in right now on the weekly chart) . The first clue that your count maybe correct is if you break the B wave on the upside if your looking at what you think may be  a wave 2 zig zag.

Is crude getn ready to dump to around 88 a barrel??????

 

Just glancing at the crude oil chart, it almost appears like we are in a double zig zag with the final downturn to start soon. I sure wouldn't mind seeing a push to about 88 as this will be counted as part of a wave 2 . It would also coincide with a trend line on the weekly chart. Right now looks like lower to me .

copper..... might have to roll the dice here....

While doing some chart surfing last night I came up on this chart on copper. it looks as if copper may be in for a bounce after the recent down draft on the daily chart. It looks like we are on a trend line support. could be a 1,2 1,2 but we would need to hold above 3.1350 for this count to be correct.

 

Japanese yen futures … rdy to dive again

Japanese yen looks like we are real close to correcting this little upswing… a big change in commercials decreasing their long position in a rising mrkt( futures). 

Side note. : futures go higher= forex currency moves down. Futures and forex are opposite. So I will be watching for a move higher in forex which means a push lower in futures.  

Has the d wave completed ????? I kinda think it has

Here is a look at the weekly Dow Jones chart..... Needless to say that thisABC and now finishing the D wave we have experienced since 2009 counts as complete!   I will be looking for the indices in general to begin its slide possible back to the 6000 level to finish an E wave.


 I hope I am wrong but this would explain setups I am getting in commodity markets for a big rise in food prices as investors will be looking to put money somewhere if this occurs...(commodities? )

Dec corn wave 3 setup is still there.....

Today we took out .618 level at 454 1/4 now we need to see .786 @ 456 3/4 get taken out and close somewhere near the 4.60 level. If this happens ,  I will be looking for the wave 3  first target of 4.86. 

My alternate count would be a finishing b wave looking for a c wave lower back to 440 where wave A will be equal in length to wave C for a zig zag. 

both these scenarios call for higher prices and the only thing that would change this count would be a break below the low of 435.00.  

Hard red spring wheat bottom?????

Wheat chart (weekly) looks to have possibly completed the wave 2. If this is the correct count . W3 is on the way.....see post from wed jan 29th.

Sugar update....

Sugar appears to be still in a w3 from Friday as seen here on the 90 min chart . A possible corrective 4 could be put in today. I'm looking at a small shallow corrective w4 as w2 was deep. Targets for the 5th wave is just under the 15.90-16 cent level to complete 5 waves higher.