Thursday, February 27, 2014

April live cattle… I'm not panicking





April cattle pushed thru the second target for this 5th wave of the wave 3.  The next resistance level comes in at 146.15-146.30. After this wave three is complete I'm expecting a deep wave 4 to somewhere around the 139 price range. 

Current positions: short April from 144. ( holding) 

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Natural gas trade …

Looks like nat gas is putting in the wave 2 of the third wave and we are hovering right at the .618 retracement of the last run up. 
- Bought premium 447 via the May contract. 

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Flying pork update and 2nd and third targets for wave 5

Flying June  pigs are extending the 5th wave… here are my targets .my 1st target was around the 108.17-108.50 as posted a while back. Here are the rest of my targets if they really squeeze these shorts. I will start with the most probable target( between 110.485 and 111.425). Max target is 114.30. I'm rdy to short this market on a break of these upper levels.


Natural gas correction targets.

Natural gas looks to have completed five waves up so now I will be looking for a retracement to around the 4.25-4.37 price range. 1st scenario:  If we have a wave 1, wave 2 and wave 3 completed on the May contract then this wave 4 should be a deep correction but should not move below the 4.24 level. This is my main count for now.

Small specs as you can see from the chart above are heavy net long so a deep corrective wave 4  to be in the cards. 


Monday, February 24, 2014

Long term interest rate play





Short term Interest rates (euro dollars )appear to be making one last run at the highs ( low yield ) around the 98.74 area on dec 2016 contract in a final wave 5 of 5 of 5. To end low interest rates for quite sometime. 
5th waves can be tricky as they can develope  in  3 possibilities. I believe that we will retest the highs as the economy sputters along and the fed cranks up the money machine again. A breach of 96.95 on the downside would invalidate this count higher as the 5th wave would be over and higher rates will be in the way…

I will be starting a long term" short" euro dollar interest rate position if and when my targets get hit.

Super sugar…

Sugar appears to be in an impulsive wave 3 of wave 1. If this is the case and correct count we have most likely seen the bottom in the sugar market and the e- wave higher has started.  Targets for the wave 3 of 1 per the oct contract come in at 18.78 on the upside. On a pullback to the low 17 cent range I will be starting a position trade as I believe we will be going much much higher in the next couple years....