Friday, May 23, 2014

Dow futures… time to sell?




This morning I will be selling the Dow futures June contract 16540  the low side is  Target is 16170-16200. In a c wave to finish the zig zag. 


Bullish doji star on sugar …

Sugar managed to hold on to the 1733-34 area and close in a bullish doji star. 

(A doji morning star is a bullish reversal pattern )

Now what I would like to see is a gap higher open and close higher on tues. It's very possible this was a deep wave 2. 

Holding longs





Sugar must hold levels…

Sugar after a strong rally last week has been on slide and what I thought was a completed triangle has yet to complete… for the current count to invalidate we would need to push below the high of 16.82 which is still a ways off. Today's support comes in at 17.33 which could still be a wave 2 intraday but 1705 and more so 1707 needs to hold and reverse. 

Current count is still in play as a w4 triangle but a break of these levels would set up a move to the 16.50 area

Thursday, May 22, 2014

C leg of wave 4 flat… are we fi

Natural gas has hit my target of 437.0 this afternoon and slid to just under 435.50 as of this writing.  While it is possible to move back to the low around 429.3 we must not go/penetrate the 4286 price as this would negate the wave 4 flat formation scenario and take the extended 5th wave off the table. 

If this does happen to play out this way a wave 2 of wave 3 will be in the cards…


Dec wheat… 1st part of the correction complete?


Dec wheat looks to have completed 5 waves higher and I will be looking for a w2 in a zig zag formation .… 1st target comes in at 648.

 It also looks like the first leg of the possible zig zag lower is close to completing. Trgt to complete would be around the 670 price range. Tough to tell at this stage. This is what I would like to see play out.  a break of 686 3/4 would open the door to 670

No position as of yet

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Sugar intra day update… wave 2 intraday?



After a nice rally last week we see sugar slide and are currently trading at 1751-52 on July contract which is exactly .618 of the move up from 1705 to 1825. If this is in fact a wave 2 (intraday) of the 5th wave then a reversal back to the high should take place very soon setting up the wave 3 higher. 

Holding long positions and will be watching to see if we get the reversal to set up the wave 3


Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Dec corn… 1st target hit


Dec corn has hit the first target of 472…where wave A= wave C. 

Position taken (dec )buying premium 472.0. To start new position… next lower target comes in 466. 

Monday, May 19, 2014

Dec corn… w2 in progress ?

Dec corn looks to have completed wave 1 and now look to be working on a wave 2. Most likely in a zig zag or possibly in an expanded flat. Will watch how this plays out. 

Observation : all the grain markets look like they are putting in w2's. 

Nat gas… update


Nat gas is looking like the 4th wave  of the c leg down could be in progress. Now the question is do we truncate the 5th wave. It looks like there is a good chance of it happening, as I believe a 5th wave extension higher is coming soon.