natural gas

natural gas has a couple formations that look to be playing out ....... I will be looking for prices to reach 209-211 and then bounce towards 2.20 -2.25 where it is possible to see another push down towards 2.00 even. I will be buying this market from 209-211 and looking for the bounce.

sugar to end the wave 4 ?

sugar has had a nice run but I believe the party is about over as several different resistant levels have shown up and they all coincide around the 1460-1470 area is this is correct a push back to the mid 8's is very possible as the 3rd wave was too short and a extended 5th wave is coming soon.
 p.s I will be a full on bear here as the risk is tiny compared to the reward risking no more than a couple hundred dollars on the trade.
CK

Natural gas update

Natural gas has pushed back towards 2.40 and A reversal may be coming back to at least the 2.70 area… 

Sugar update… extended 3rd wave of C expanded flat

Sugar is most definitely in a w3 extention in what I believe to be an expanded flat for a 4th wave. What I would like to see is a gap up open on the daily chart with some kind of bearish candle as we need a 4th wave lower and then a failed attempt at the highs again in a truncated 5th wave to complete the 5th n final wave. I will be looking to sell any rally attempt to 14.60-70 as its my belief a push back to 8 cents is in the cards. 

Natural gas… update target met

Natural gas has come within 1 cent from hitting the target of 240 this morning and I have covered all short positions and now pursuing the long side. As I'm expecting some kind of bullish candle to set up within the next couple days or and a bottom to be put in somewhere in this area of 240.  Let's see where we go.  

Sugar update… an expanded flat has shown up…

We are currently in a w3 up of a c wave in what appears to be an expanded flat for wave 4. This should come to an end between 1340-1480. A full wave 3 would be 1340 so some kind of bearish reversal candle should raise its head soon. Then the 4th toward 1240-1250 and final leg up that could very well fall short of the high that I am anticipating in the next few days. Price obj after completion will be 836 in 5 waves to finish the 5th wave down… 

Sugar update…

Sugar has gone back to retest the highs at 11.70 and on the 60 min chart appears to be some sort of double zig zig zag that has concluded or will make a move towards 1184-1200 and complete this abc up. Either way I am still looking for a push lower to Around 9 cents to finish this abcde 5th wave. 

Dow jones …w2?

Dow dec futures look like they may head higher towards 17k to finish a possible w2. Which also lines up at the 50 day mvg avg. if this is the case a monster w3 down to 12300 could easily materialize. 

dec corn scenario triangle

DEC corn looks to be carving out a triangle and looks to be half way complete as c wave looks to be completed or close to completion. The next 30 cent move should take us back to just above the 360 level where we should see a bounce to completion. if this is the case target zones for dec corn should come in somewhere around the 306-316 area.  (any push back towards the 395-400 per dec I will be selling.)

natural gas expanded triangle for B wave finished

natural gas may have just finished up the B wave expanded triangle. if this is the case we should see a reversal lower in the next couple days as ill be watching for a bearish daily candle to get short this market.

Sugar weekend update: commercials (net short)

Sugar pushed a bit higher on Friday but I'm still of the belief that one more low is around the corner for the sugar market that could take us somewhere around the 9 cent area.( if we get here I'm a full bull) By the looks of the commercial money they are fairly close to an extreme net short position. Let's see what unfolds. Position: waiting and watching as of now and may take a short position on any daily resistance candle. 

Sugar… a new low coming?

Sugar rallied this morning but as of now couldn't hold on as the contracting diagonal is still in play. A push below today's low of 1127 October should set up more pressure to the downside.  Again we will watch and waiting for this formation to complete as it will set up a great buying opportunity at around the 9 cent area if this scenario plays out

Natural gas … min chart expanded flat for wave 2

Natural gas front month 5 min chart has put in what appears to be an expanded flat for wave 2. If this is correct prices should reject the high of the day and begin the downward wave three to a target of 2.605. Let's see what happens. 

Natural gas… waiting for the breakdown

Natural gas looks to be finishing an abc zig zag to end at 271.5. I will be adding to my short position on a break of 265.0 let's see where we go. 

Sugar d wave completing today?

Oct sugar…the D wave should be completing today as a perfect A=C and would be 1160. I will be selling here anywhere near 1160 as I'm looking for a resistance candle to form. Possibly setting up an evening star doji or a piercing pattern. Targets of I'm correct in my counting is around the 9 cent area.  At that point I will be a full fledge bull buying on a break of the lower trendline. 

Dec crude…

Oct crude looks as if we are putting in the w2 as we come off and a break under 4321 puts it in a 3rd wave lower toward 3826. Let's see if we break

Euro $ dec 2016 ending diagonal complete

Above is the chart for dec 2016 Eurodollars. It looks as if the ending diagonal has finished so I am expecting a 

Drop to at the least 9803. And possibly lower. We shall see. 

Christmas crude

A reversal today has crude gunning for the 50 day avg at 5059. Hopefully we don't breach this 5213 as I'd like to see crude fail here. 

4th wave triangles in the indices

nasdaq as well as all the other indexes are setting up what appears to be a 4th wave triangle. if this is the case we have another leg lower

soybeans continue their slide..

daily nov bean chart looks as if we are currently in a w3 lower and this target comes in at 803 on the downside.

euro dollar 2017 2016 interest rate futures reversal to higher rates soon?

The EDZ16 and EDz17  have presented the sell signal this morning on the dow meltdown. Currently short this market as of today on the throwover of the ending diagonal on the edz2016 at 9892 risking $ 250 per contract to possibly take a shot at 2500 per contract. Great risk reward trade here in my opinion. 

Crude oil… we bounced alright but not much

Crude oil did bounce but not enough as the next obj on crude comes in at 3778 per dec contract. 

sugar targets for wave c of the ending diagonal .........

sugar looks to be finishing up the c wave of the ending diagonal that most likely will end around the 1000-1020 price range per oct contract. the d wave higher should enter into the price range of the A wave ending @ 1152 then the final push lower to just under 9 cents. here we should see the final bottom in place and a rally back to 14 + should take place . This is my current count as of now and will be watching for this to play out.

will oil hit the target and bounce? looks like it to me

dec crude oil is creeping up on the 4244 trgt and a great risk reward trade. (orders to buy at 4245 and 4240 in and waiting. lets see if we hit and reverse. 

Natural gas… no doji today

Natural gas rallied today as I was hoping for a bearish candle would form. Very possible that tomorrow could set up the bearish candle as we have thrown over the downtrend line of  the wedge pattern which is common in this formation…let's see how we play out! 

Sugar…descending triangle

Has sugar finished the c leg of a contracting ending diagonal or do we see 10.20-10.00 before the d leg up? I was hoping to get to the 10 mark as that would be a perfect ABC for the C leg to finish. A relief bounce  then the final push lower to around 8.50-8.75. ( this happens to be the long term trendline!)  Keep watching here as this should be a great long term trade arising.

Natural gas… topping at 2.878?

Natural gas upside target this morning comes in at 2.878 and I will be looking for some kind of doji bearish candle to be put in today. Might look something like this. As we have the gap higher in place. 

Dec crude

dec crude oil........... are we close to the bottom? lets take a look.

it looks as if we will take a run to the 4244 level as this final wave lower plays out here we have a nice risk to reward play with a potential move back to 65-70 with a relatively low risk. patience is the key here. 

British pound… complex wave 4

The British pound looks to be ready to break out to the upside in a c wave of an abc for a wave 2… targets come in at 15810 which happens to be the upper trend line…

Completed zig zag nat gas on the 5 min chart

Natural gas appears to have completed a zig zag for a wave 2 on the5 min chart,and w3 could be underway with a trgt of (253-254. )Current position short with orders to sell under 2.73. 

canadian dollar bottom appears to be close at hand..... in the final major c wave.

the canadian dollar is setting up as it appears we are in a the last stages of the c leg down of a big zig zag retrace. The chart below shows that we are currently in a 3rd wave of the 5th that can reach as low as 7540 before the bounce into a 4th of a 5th that should end up being some kind of triangle or complex corrective pattern.  extending back towards 78. the final objective would be somewhere around the 7253 area to complete an ABC where A will be equal in length to C. if we happen to get to the 7540 area I may take a long position here with a tight stop of 30 to 40 points as the risk reward is to my liking.

  

Natgas… ewave finished of the triangle

Natural gas…waves

Triangle appears to be complete and now a push under the uptrend line is what I'm expecting. Only a break above the c wave would invalidate the count and set up a larger triangle c wave. Let's see where we go. Currently short and targets are 253 and 240 .

Wave 4 triangle playing out in euro$

The euro is looking like a triangle is forming and the current decline is the b wave that could be over soon. 

Natural gas… closing in on the final push up before the fail!

Natural gas after finishing up the d wave of a possible triangle is working on the E wave that could end as soon as tomorrow with a throwover of the upper downtrend line. Trgt if this is what we are seeing play out will be around the 2.00 level. # short position taken here @ 282 per sept and orders in at 284…

British pound chart 1hr. W4 target hit

The pound has reached the w4 target between 15550-15560. Let's watch for this 5th wave lower

natural gas waves......

Natural gas has been chopping around in what appears to be a channel/wedge/triangle whatever you would like to call it. I am currently flat as i believe that a push down to lower levels could come to fruition. in the form of this triangle we should push to a low of 260 and then a bounce to finish the triangle and thrust lower to around 2.00 level. my second thought is that we push to a new low around the 240 area then bounce into D wave of an ending diagonal which leaves us with a last E wave thrust down to bottom out natural gas prices and push us back to 3.35-40 area quickly.

Natgas… 1,2 1,2

Currently sitting at the .786 fib number of a possible wave 2 of w3 flat. A break over 295 sets up the w3. Could reverse tomorrow! 

corn close to a bottom?

 Corn to bottom soon? I think its close.






Corn looks to be putting in a bottom in a wave 2 zig zag with a bottom close at hand . If the 356 level doesn't hold I will be watching the 338-341 1/2 to hold and reverse. A break of 398 1/2 will set up the w3 to the 5.00 level

japanese yen diagonal is no more...... here are my new targets

June Japanese Yen

The june japanese yen has invalidated my ending diagonal count and im expecting a breakdown
to the 7935-7950 area. Intraday i will be watching for a motive wave with a five wave structure moving higher.  Lets see if we can hold this yen.

Expanded flat in nat gas for wave 2?

Last week natural gas too another spill towards the low and as we have 5 waves up to around 3.15 we have 2 scenarios setting up. My first one and the one I'm going to follow as of now is an A B C expanded flat. With the c wave finishing on Friday last week. A gap open higher this evening and some sort of inside or doji candle would be a good start. Either way it's a low risk high reward trade.

Has the euro bottomed? I kinda think so......

June euro daily chart

  The euro looks to have put in a 1.2 1.2 so far and i will be watching for a green candle  and a subsequent break of the b wave to set up the wave 3 higher. we will see what happens here. as all the currencies are lining up

japanese yen formation complete?????

 Japanese yen has possibly completed the 5th wave with maybe a bit more down to go but for this formation to stay valid it must not move beyond 8019 on the June futures contract. (this could bottom this evening. )  I'm currently waiting for a conformation green candle day before jumping in here. Maybe some kind of spinning top doji

Silver carving out and B triangle ...... with a breakdown coming??????

Silver in a B wave triangle?

silver looks to be in a 4th wave down of a b triangle to end at 1582-83 then a small rally up in a 5th wave a-b-c pattern and back down to a thrust out of the triangle to end at 1270-1275.

orange juice.... 1 more leg down to touch new lows and then spring back?

Sept orange juice " contracting ending diagonal. "

Orange juice looks to be putting a text book contracting ending diagonal with wave 1, wave 2 wave 3 complete and working on the 4th wave with a 5th and final wave down to come that should go no lower than 10684 on the final push down. after complete we should see a immediate upward thrust back toward 12840 and possibly higher. an invalidation would only occur if prices break above the 12190 level and below the 10684 price. A break above 12190 would change the count to a wave 1 wave 2 with the 3rd wave to come.

Yen… the last push higher…

Daily Japanese yen 

The yen looks as if a final push higher to the 12260-70 area may just around the corner. Will be keeping an eye on this market as this final push should present a great opportunity on the short side.

Natural gas… bottom in place at 2.475?

Natural gas has been sliding as of late and a potential bottom looks to be in place as of this writing in a possible 3-3- part of an expanded flat for w4. (Position: long June 2.53 ) . I'm looking for a push back to the 3.35-3.40 area

Go pro stock… short term bottom?

Go pro stock looks like we may get a push back toward 55-56… to the prior 4th wave in some sort of a zig zag for the 4th wave…currently taking a long position here…as the risk reward is a little over 10-1. 

Natural gas…1,2 1,2 is no more…

After the gap down today natural gas is looking more and more like this is either a 4th wave triangle of the c leg or a possible contracting ending diagonal 5th wave . If it is in fact the latter then it would target around 2.47 to complete the c wave of C with the d wave and  the e wave to come testing the old lows of 191-2.00. To invalidate this count a break over 3.03 would be needed. 

Japanese yen… upward spike?

The yen looks as if we are in a 4th wave of the 3rd of the 5th that should reach as high as 125-126 … (4th waves tend to be triangles). Let's see where we go

natural gas 1,2 1,2........

(Daily )April natural gas

Natural gas has a 1, 2, 1,2 setting up and today may be the day we reverse back to the upside. target on the low side is 2.756 and a break of 304 is needed to set up the  nice run to a target of 348 in a wave 3.

The dollar… setting up to disappoint ?

Again the U.S. Dollar has been chopping around and putting in a triangle formation, with commercials ( smart money )net short.  

Again everyone is under the delusion that the fed is going to raise rates on there own terms and not the markets. 

Apple… 5 waves down intra day

A breach of 125.57 sets up the wave 3 to a target of 124… also a psh down in Apple could take the Nasdaq to close about where we opened which would set up a bearish doji evening star candle to end the week in the Nasdaq.

 

Natural gas… contracting ending diagonal

Natural gas looks to be putting in the final psh down in an e wave today of a contracting ending diagonal. Trgts on the low side are 2.50-2.53 as we will usually get some sort of throw over the lower trendline…. A quick reversal back to the highs of the diagonal should occur 3.33 trgt. 

Nat gas… when is this bounce coming?

Natural gas has been in a corrective phase and looks like a double zig zag and yesterday we hit the 2.67 area and this is where wave c will be equal to wave A * 1.382.  ( note: extremes on the commercial longs for both daily and weekly charts) 

Crude oil… terminal thrust out of the triangle complete?

The thrust out of the triangle may have very well completed today as the target came in at 45.50-45.70. Let's see where we go… my thoughts are up! 

The federal reserve isnt going to raise rates......

Dec euro $ interest rate vehicle for 2017

Dec euro dollar is looks to be finishing up the wave 5 of 5 of 5and I expect this interest rate decline to stop somewhere in the vicinity of 98.28 and 98.52 if the recent high is taken out.

The U.S. dollar… I don't believe the hype

The dollar appears to be creeping up into the prior wave 4 so let's see if we respect this level… I do believe we are topping here in the 92.50-95.00 range

Natural gas… contracting ending diagonal

The 15min chart above of natural gas looks to be a textbook contracting ending diagonal that could get a throw over of the lower trendline and then a reversal back towards the minimum of 3.20-3.50 area for a w4 before the next slide could resume. 

Orders to buy at 2.76-2.80

The lower chart is the hourly chart and the connecting trendlines are connecting 1 and 3 on the bottom and 2 and 4 on the top… 

canadian dollar....... are we set to move back towards 90?

 Above is a look at the march Canadian dollar and by my count I can clearly see five waves down to and a possible end  to the downside with a move to back towards 90. lowest target would be 8395 per march contract. Lets see where we go

Natural gas… is this w2 over?

Natural gas has currently held the .786 price level for a possible deep wave 2… if this is the case a wave 3 should take over to the upside with a target of the 10-11 range in a 5 wave sequence,and will give plenty of opportunities to buy.  

******Not to mention an extreme long position in the commercials as seen below could turn this market at any time…

Good trading

CK

watching the sugar for some support

sugar is coming up on some support and a possible end to this zig zag for wave 2 @ 1408-1417. ( per march contract.

Also a quick note here…the commercials are at an extreme for net longs here…