sugar ...... lookin sweet ( update)

Sugar looks to be completing the 5th wave of wave 1 to the upside and now i will be watching for a wave 2 if in fact wave 5 of wave 1 is ending today. 

Natural Gas..... targets... will wave 5 of 3 extend???????/

 

My original target of 568 for the wave 3 fell short. So now i will be looking for wave 5 to extend to a price level of 642 on the daily chart.

 

Wave 2's in elliot wave...

Wave 2's in the wave formation :

- Wave 2 : a wave 2 is a corrective wave that usually will retrace .618 to .786 of the prior wave 1 in the form of a zig zag. . Sometimes it will even go as far as 100% of wave 1.  The only rule that must not be broken is that it MUST under no circumstance break the wave 1 starting point. 

These are examples of wave 2 formations and what they look like. For now we will just be concerned about identifying the lower zig zag formation. The best way to do this is to go and look at past charts and see if you can pick them out. EX(the Canadian dollar appears to be putting one in right now on the weekly chart) . The first clue that your count maybe correct is if you break the B wave on the upside if your looking at what you think may be  a wave 2 zig zag.

Is crude getn ready to dump to around 88 a barrel??????

 

Just glancing at the crude oil chart, it almost appears like we are in a double zig zag with the final downturn to start soon. I sure wouldn't mind seeing a push to about 88 as this will be counted as part of a wave 2 . It would also coincide with a trend line on the weekly chart. Right now looks like lower to me .

copper..... might have to roll the dice here....

While doing some chart surfing last night I came up on this chart on copper. it looks as if copper may be in for a bounce after the recent down draft on the daily chart. It looks like we are on a trend line support. could be a 1,2 1,2 but we would need to hold above 3.1350 for this count to be correct.

 

Japanese yen futures … rdy to dive again

Japanese yen looks like we are real close to correcting this little upswing… a big change in commercials decreasing their long position in a rising mrkt( futures). 

Side note. : futures go higher= forex currency moves down. Futures and forex are opposite. So I will be watching for a move higher in forex which means a push lower in futures.  

Has the d wave completed ????? I kinda think it has

Here is a look at the weekly Dow Jones chart..... Needless to say that thisABC and now finishing the D wave we have experienced since 2009 counts as complete!   I will be looking for the indices in general to begin its slide possible back to the 6000 level to finish an E wave.


 I hope I am wrong but this would explain setups I am getting in commodity markets for a big rise in food prices as investors will be looking to put money somewhere if this occurs...(commodities? )

Dec corn wave 3 setup is still there.....

Today we took out .618 level at 454 1/4 now we need to see .786 @ 456 3/4 get taken out and close somewhere near the 4.60 level. If this happens ,  I will be looking for the wave 3  first target of 4.86. 

My alternate count would be a finishing b wave looking for a c wave lower back to 440 where wave A will be equal in length to wave C for a zig zag. 

both these scenarios call for higher prices and the only thing that would change this count would be a break below the low of 435.00.  

Hard red spring wheat bottom?????

Wheat chart (weekly) looks to have possibly completed the wave 2. If this is the correct count . W3 is on the way.....see post from wed jan 29th.

Sugar update....

Sugar appears to be still in a w3 from Friday as seen here on the 90 min chart . A possible corrective 4 could be put in today. I'm looking at a small shallow corrective w4 as w2 was deep. Targets for the 5th wave is just under the 15.90-16 cent level to complete 5 waves higher.

 

March Wheat ...... contracting ending diagonal to end around the 540 price range?

Here is another look at the march daily wheat chart. Picture is starting to look like one more low towards 540 might take place after a small bounce back to 560.0.. A small throw over should take place that moves under the trend line and then a sharp rally should ensue if this is the correct count..

Big wave patterns in a bunch of commodities

Looking at the grain markets… we appear to be putting in  large wave patterns that are acting like w2's . Monster wave patterns usually proceed monster price moves. So don't be surprised if you see big moves in commodities over the next couple years.  The fact that everyone is bearish on commodities is an even greater sign in my opinion.  Markets bottom on great supply and over abundance. Then there is a catalyst… what it could be is anyone's guess. Stock market collapse , dollar devaluation , bond rates too low maybe… would make sense…  we will see where we go. 

wave 3 for corn possibly setting up......

Dec corn chart for Jan. 31st 2014

A break over 455 and a close near the high of 460 sets up a wave 3 higher to a price obj of 486 on the Dec. corn daily chart above.

-important fib numbers to watch: .618 @ (4.44 1/2) and .786 @ (4.40 1/2)

- Order placed to buy premium on a break of 4.60 

- Invalidation of this current count would be a break back under the low of 435.0

Sugar… a sweet set up or just a head fake?

Sugar has held the piercing bullish candle low of 1470 that was made on the daily chart on tues. 

Intra-day we are set up for a wave 3 higher to the 1525-1530 price that could very well signal that this was the end of the D wave with the E wave to come. A weekly close above 14.94, 15.08, or even better 15.22 will go a long way as we have bounced off of the lower trendline .  

Front month continuation chart going back to the low in 03.....

Facebook stock topped out yet…???

Facebook is currently trading over the 60.00 level this morning on some better than average add sales… I don't believe this will hold. My target area for this 5th wave would be 64-65 for the TOP to be put in…. 

Canadian dollar w2 playing out (update)

Canadian dollar weekly chart really does look good and ripe to start a wave 3. The .618 retrace would be around the 8770 as wave 2's usually travel too. The second scenario is we could be unfolding in c wave of a triangle and that would cause for a push down to the 84.50-85 level per futures.

Some interesting side notes:

-Commercials are at an extreme bullish here so this could very well bounce. 

- small specs are at a weekly extreme net short

-86.00 level is the prior wave 4

Hard red winter wheat march...... Bottomed in a wave 2?

Hard red winter wheat looks interesting as we are currently sitting on the price where wave A is equal to wave C to complete the zig zag. and right on the .786 fib support number.

buying 4.98

TaRget if this is a zig zag wave 2 would reach as high as 16.00 + over the next couple years

heres my take on wheat........ short and long term

March wheat looks to have finished or very well could be very close to finishing this 3rd of the 5th wave lower.... and im expecting a deep corrective wave 4 to push back over the 6.00 price. As of this writing wheat is trading down 5 cents @ 5.60 n change.

If indeed we are finished with this c leg of this expanded flat in wheat for wave 2  a break over 7.20 will be my first indication that a bottom is in place.

Short term price:  its very possible we could see a test of the 525-530 area as expanded flats typically moves past the point of where wave A ended on july 4th 2011 which would be @ 565.00 as seen on a weekly chart.

 Long Term projections

I believe that much higher prices are coming over the next 3-5 yrs. My price targets for wheat in this  time frame are would be somewhere in the 22.00 price area

Trade today:  (buying march wheat at 561 )

orange juice update...... C leg down to start?

Here is a quick glance at the OJ daily chart for( May). Looks like Juice  might press to the downside into a c leg to the 127.33-132 range. wave A will equal wave C at 133.45 if we unfold as a simple zig zag. It also happens to coincide with the .618 retrace and the .786 where wave 2's most often correct to. 

If however we don't break 138.10  and we  push back toward the high at 150.15 it sets up the wave 3 higher to the 180+ area.

Piercing pattern daily candle on sugar?

Yesterday sugar gapped down on the open and preceded to move higher throughout the day closing near the days high. This is also one of my fav technical indicators to trade. It's called a piercing pattern bullish candle stick. We also had five waves up intra day on a 5 min chart. For this count to stay valid we need to see yesterday's low hold. Support comes in at 14.86 and 14.78 ( we are testing these as I write.

Here's what the peircing pattern looks like.  I have an order to buy on a break over 15.10 per march contract

Is a commodities boom coming? My Top 5

              

Here are my top 5 that I believe are going much higher in the next 3-5 yrs

OJ

Sugar

Natural gas

Corn

Wheat…

I have posted on these markets before and will be updating charts and commentary in the next couple days. 

Sugar … not looking so sweet

Sugar is really dragging out this 5th wave… support comes in at 1450 on the march contract. (Stop was triggered last night @ 15.78 on a position that was long from 16.07 on the oct contract. On sidelines for now as price targets for March contract come in at 14.50 -14.60. 

do you know what wheat is gonna do????? me neither......but ill give it a whirl.

 Here's a glance at march wheat

Can this be a complex wave 2  in the form of a expanded flat? If so we could be on the verge of a big wave 3 to push prices much higher over the next couple yrs.My targets on the downside for this finishing wave 5 come in at  5.23-5.30 per front month contract. Invalidation of this count would be a move under 425.1/4

Corn .... Could we be going to 12.95 + in the next bull run ????

weekly corn chart for Jan 27 2014

Corn looks to be doing one of two things 1.) finishing up a c wave of an exp flat for a wave 2. The last part of this formation consists of a 5 wave pattern down and it looks like we have finished the 3rd wave which leaves us with 4th wave up and 5th wave down to complete the formation. (The alternate would be that we are in a finished ABC zig zag. for the wave 2.) the first scenario would call for a corrective wave higher then one more possible low. The second would call for the wave 3 higher to start soon. Targets would be 12.95 if wave 3 is 1.618 times  wave 1. Invalidation of the current count would be prices declining below 2.96 3/4 set back on 9/30/09. The count would still paint a bullish picture but would call for more correction

 Commercial interest is net long and specs look to have added to the short position. 

April live cattle trade

April cattle short is looking good so far and has almost reached my target of 139.50-138.50... still holding short April position from 142.00 as the cattle on feed report looked somewhat bearish on Friday.  Let me know if anyone needs a copy of the report I'll be more than happy to send it to ya.......

sugar.... who has it right ? commercials or small speculators....

March Sugar 2014 update

Sugar has been everything but exciting the past few trading sessions.Major Resistance levels are around the 16.50 area which appears to be the 4th wave of this final 5th wave down that is still taking place. The commercials have increased there long positions while the small specs have increase their short holdings.Its been my experience that being on the side of the small speculators is hazardous. That being said commercials are often early in their price movement forecasts. So chose wisely!  

positions : still holding long from oct 1607 and resting orders to buy on a break over 17.17  on oct contract.

Natural gas is on Fire....... wheres the next stop....Lets go to the chart....

My first target for natural gas wave 3  is @ 5.68 if wave 3 is 1.618  of wave 1...  of course we could always extend.

Impulsive move down in the Indices

Dow futures blew out the contracting ending diagonal that I was looking for and evidently started the decline early ... next good support comes in at about 300pts lower from here @ 15608 on the daily chart. We really need to hold this level...... still in a wave 3 lower .

Sugar coma… or sugar high???

Ever since hitting my numbers @1518 on front month sugar we have been stuck in a sugar coma… I have a long position at 1607 on the october contract. 

Technically we have met the qualifications for 5 waves down being complete since the run down from the 20 cent price range and the commercials buyers look to have almost gone net positive on buy side. ( which is a plus) A nice 30 point jump to the upside would be nice to end the week.

Will cows keep on soaring? I'm looking for a breather…

 cattle trade is working out so far… we did however over shoot my price targets by about 150 points. Which makes me think It could very well be the finish of the wave 3 of the third wave higher. Now we need a wave 4… trgt still 138.50-139.50

Canadian dollar zig zag for a w2?

The Canadian dollar looks like we are possibly finishing up a zig zag flat for a wave 2. A price break above 104 on the march futures would be a first hint that wave 3 is setting up. It also helps that the commercials are getting close to extreme net long with prices moving lower.

Holy Cow what a rally in the last 30-40 min

Now i need a u turn in the cows...... filled at 142.00 on april contract on the short side....looking for a price fall to 138.50-139.00

Dow Futures..... Ending diagonal building?

Here's a quick picture of a daily Dow futures chart for march. If we can hold here on the Trend line support and make a new high then it appears we would have an ending diagonal that would reach as high as 16880-16900 before a big swift correction.... we will certainly find out sooner than later if this count is any good... 

5 wave pattern illustration in the hog market.

This is a five wave pattern in Lean hogs. (actually the fifth wave looks to have just started and should unfold in a five wave pattern as an impulsive rally. It is usually equal to the length of the first wave that started at the end of march and ended the start of June for wave 1. 

5th wave scenarios give you three possibilities and the first 2 scenarios that come into play are (wave 1 will be equal in length to wave 5,as described already.) or a truncation( not making it to the old wave 3 high and reversing  and closing under the prior wave 4 labeled in the Lean Hog Daily chart above. The third possibility would be the length of wave 1 thru wave 3 multiplied times .382 then .618 As wave 3 extended I'm not looking for this 3rd possibility to play out. (As a rule I refrain from taking a long position 4th waves). I'm expecting this 5th wave to end somewhere around the 96.77 level....this market also has a little pattern that repeats 8 outta 10 times in a certain time frame, but you'll have to drop me a note for that one. 

Target for April Live cattle price

1st obj is at the 141.95-142.38  level for April live cattle. A  possible end to this 5th wave.. ?

Good til cancelled order to sell premium @ 142.00 if we get there...otherwise I will be watching for 5 waves to the downside for a clue that a price top may be in.

Who is gonna eat steak at these prices?

The cattle market has been on a tear higher ever since may of last year and by my wave count an almost completed 5 wave move to the upside. after completion we should see a nice move to the downside.

Another indicator i use along with my count is the commitment of traders. Looks like the commercials are reaching an extreme short position......will be interesting to see if this indicator comes thru again.

Sugar market and the commercial traders.... are they telling us something????

Checking out the commitment of traders report on Friday. It seemed to show that the commercials have just moved to the positive side of the zero line and small traders have moved further onto the short side of the sugar market. usually I look for extremes of the commercials and small speculators for potential trend changes in the market to confirm my wave count. we don't have any extremes as of now but commercials becoming net buyers could be a sign that this market may turn in trend .Below is a chart showing the commercials getting in on the long side.

Sugar premium bought

As my numbers were hit on the front month sugar @ 15.18 to possibly finish the c leg of this zig zag for a wave 2. I bought 1607 on the oct contract. lets see where this takes us.  my stops are placed below 1578 on this trade

good trading
CK

Is one more high needed in hogs before we fall?

lean hogs look like we may need another high before we start down into June and July of this year.

Targets are 96.77 where wave 1 = to wave 5

where does the wheat go from here?????

 front month wheat weekly chart is showing what looks to be an expanded flat for a wave 2 in the wheat market. If this is the case and wave 3 is ready to take over then we could be looking at 11.50 wheat in the not to distant future..



Something Interesting about the commodity markets is all appear to be warning that a bull run in commodities may be just around the corner.

Orange Juice ....... Liquid gold? update

Orange juice still appears to be working on a wave 2 on the weekly chart that could extend as low as 115. I believe that the 97.10was the larger wave 2 low and if this is correct we should not see a price break under this level. Here is a weekly chart for your viewing pleasure.

 Price targets for OJ if this set up holds true and we see a break over 226.95 sets up the wave 3 higher to 359 n change.  

My disclosure: I have no idea where these markets may go and these are just my opinions and should be taken as Just opinions and not fact!!!!! futures trading involves a high level of risk.

Orange juice set to sky rocket in 2014 on crop damage??????

Normally I'm not a big fundamentalist but the charts and the fundamentals seem to be lining up rather nicely.

Longer term price target is the 350  for the wave three if .618 of wave 1.

Could Short term interest rate futures be topping out in the first quarter of this year?

The Euro Dollar interest rate futures are putting in a perfect 5 wave pattern to the upside and are currently working on the 5th wave to possibly extend to 9920-99.40 if wave 1 is equal to wave 5. This could very well be playing out as contracting ending diagonal.