Super sugar…

Sugar appears to be in an impulsive wave 3 of wave 1. If this is the case and correct count we have most likely seen the bottom in the sugar market and the e- wave higher has started.  Targets for the wave 3 of 1 per the oct contract come in at 18.78 on the upside. On a pullback to the low 17 cent range I will be starting a position trade as I believe we will be going much much higher in the next couple years.... 

Facebook 3rd wave coming to a close?

Facebook looks to have completed the 5th wave higher of the 3rd wave. On an overshoot of my 3rd wave last target of 67.80.  ( remember that 3rd waves are made up of 5 internal waves). I'm looking for the deep complex fourth wave correction to begin anytime now with a target of 46.51- 52.08 as seen on the chart below.

march wheat...... marching to my drum

march wheat : as written on 1/29/14 post wheat has corrected into what appears to be a deep wave 4 into the low $ 6 price range. I have taken half my position off from 561 per march and will be waiting for a final push down that may reach to 536 if wave 1 is equal in length to wave 5. 

- The only thing that would negate this final leg down would be a push and break above 720 and signal that this c leg of the expanded flat counts as complete.

Nasdaq… could we reverse any day now?

Nasdaq futures look like we could reverse anyday now as we approach the end of wave 5 and begin the decline in a deep wave 4. When the wave 4 starts we should expect a decline to at least the 3255-3354 level

Corn… are we finally getting the start of the wave 3?

Dec corn after doing nothing last week looks like we may be breaking out this morning into the 3rd wave. Currently holding onto longs… target comes in at 4.85 

Sugar: Wave 3 underway?

As you can see on the 90 min chart above wave 3 possibly has started. This should take place in a 5 wave sequence and a break above 1640 should be confirmation we are ready to move higher towards 17.70-18.00

A simple explanation about wave 3's

Wave 3's as seen above is a 5 wave impulsive pattern and the wave that most traders are looking to catch and ride as the distance is usually 1.618 multiplied by wave 1. And provides a good risk to reward trade. ( a little more rare is that wave 3's extend and can move 2.618 of wave 1. 

April live cattle… finishing w5 of 3

April live cattle hit my first price target @ 142.50 and are closing in on 144 where this 3rd wave should finish. After this advance I'm expecting a steep wave 4 of three to reach Down to the 136..50 -137.00 price range. 

Nasdaq top in view????

Nasdaq looks like familiar pattern is brewing…it's a triangle that often appears in the 5th wave. It is made up of an A,B,C,D and finally an E wave to complete the formation.  It's looking like we are finishing the D wave up. Price target would be 3678-3685 on the upside to finish wave D. Price targets for the E wave to finish would be 3350-3387. 

feeder cattle..... a push back to 172 ?

Looks like we may get a push back higher to the 172 target area on front month march feeders. This would actually be in line with what the Fats are looking like.On the monthly feeder chart am showing that there  a monster correction in commercials net long position while the market was rising. This  usually means a price correction is coming.( I normally like to see this on the daily chart as opposed to the monthly as monthly can drag out ).The current count is we are in a wave 5 on the daily chart in a contracting ending diagonal and a breach above the 171-171.50 area should see a quick reversal to the downside if this count is correct.

Good trading 
CK

Feeder cattle daily chart

Feeder cattle monthly

 

april cattle.. will we hit 142.50-143.00 ????

 April Live cattle are putting in what appears to be a 5th wave. Targets come in at 142.50- 143.82. I will be looking to short this market if these price levels are reached. the reason for the multiple targets are that 5th waves have a couple different scenarios.(For now i will be concentrating on this outcome). If we do reach my targets I am expecting a deep correction to around the 136.30 price range.

Dow futures… sink or swim

Dow futures are closing in on my sale price. 

Order placed to sell premium @16040. 

Let's see if we get done. This is a .618 fib number from the last decline.

Dow mrch futures sitting at 16001 as of this writing.  

Here ya go bulls..... could this be the correct count?

Here's an alternate bullish count for the Dow Jones futures on a weekly chart. As you can see in the chart above and if this count is correct we are currently still in a wave 3 of 3 to the upside that has a possible target of 20,620. While this is not my preferred count, I have to look at every possibility of what is happening.

.618 and .786 the magic numbers for wave 2's

While wave 2's can come in many shapes and forms with shallow and deep corrections.  The number that most always comes into play with wave 2's is .618 fib number.

 This number is calculated by taking the (high minus the low) of the last 5 wave sequence (higher or lower) and multiply by .618. The number you get will be deducted from the high of what you think may be the end of wave 1 in the possible start of the uptrend.

An example would be in the sugar market from a low of 1470 to a high of 16.38. 5 waves up would be a possible wave 1. Now the .618 target would be the (low-high) multiplied by .618 and deducted from the high of 16.38.  

.786 is calculated the same way… 

The only rule we have to keep in mind is that wave 2's can never trade below the start of wave 1. In this ex. Trading just 1 tick below would invalidate this count as a potential 1,2. 

 

So heres what Im seeing for the dow futures.....

  
So here is my current count for the Dow Jones futures based on the weekly and daily charts........

As you can see we have 5 waves down in the Dow for a possible( wave 1) and I have labeled what I believe is happening at the present adding in my projections into or around the start of march finishing in a wave 2 around the 15900-16050 level if we indeed get a full (wave 2 zig zag). This scenario will only change if the high @ 16540 is broken on the upside. 


 1st target if a wave 3 is equal to 1.618 of wave 1 would be @ 14,000
 2nd target if wave 3 is 2.618 of wave 1 is 12,756 (if wave 3 is extended).

 This is a picture of the weekly chart and as you can see its very possible that this E wave move lower is underway which would call for a lower dow over the next couple years.



 

April Fats… is one more high needed?

April fats?  Do we need another high?  I think that may be in the cars. I'm looking for 1 more push higher towards 144.00 before I take a crack at the short side of this market. (Want more in depth price forecasts and scenarios drop me a note)

CK

Sugar… is wave 2 complete????

Sugar 60 min chart looks like we may be in a w2 of the 1st wave as we have met the qualifications for a wave 2 ,moving to almost .618 retrace of the last advance which would be around the 16.33 price area. A break above 1638 sets up the wave 3 higher...

* prices must not breach the low of 14.70 for this count to be intact. 

Cocoa… finishing the 5th wave????

On the daily chart March Cocoa appears to be in the 5th wave. So I will be watching for this market to reverse into a w2.

My target for the wave 5 to finish comes in at 30.00-30..66. If we get a full 5th wave. 

Side note: commercials have a extreme net short position and large traders are at an extreme long here on the daily chart. 

Is crude fixin to get messy.........

 crude oil is just hanging around this 97.50-98.50 range.... looks very much like a complex wave 2 with a series of overlapping waves that looks to be almost complete.88-89 is still my target area for this double zig zag to finish.  

-    afternoon Update: looks like crude could take a shot at 102.00 we are building an ascending triangle on the weekly chart 

come on corn .... lets get this party started

Dec corn has been hanging around teasing me with a possible wave 3 higher for the last couple days. The only thing that would invalidate this count would be a break of the prior low of 435 and would tell me that we are not quite finished with this c leg of an expanded flat for a wave 2. A push down to 452 may entice me to play from the long side here as my risk on the trade diminishes.

DEC CORN DAILY CHART

Is wave 2 complete or do we have more downside to go in sugar?????

Sugar looks to have completed a 5 wave up pattern and now is working on the wave 2 of wave 1.

support comes in at the prior wave 4 @ 15.47 on the front month march contract.

-   If this is wave 2 before a wave 3 targets would reach as high as 18.30-18.50

-  Wave 2's can retrace as low as the entire wave 1.the norm for wave 2's is to retrace .618 to .786 of the first wave. This would be somewhere between the 15.05 and 15.33.


Resting Orders placed above 17.22 on the( Oct) contract and .618 support comes in at 16.28. 


Lets see if we can catch a wave 3

March sugar daily chart

Set up in place for a w3 breakout in dec corn

Dec corn still hanging around the wave 3 breakout level..  

Order placed to buy premium 360.1/2 stop.  Let's see if this works out....

Live cattle..... finishing up the wave 3?

April live cattle look to be very close to finishing up a wave 3 around the 143-144 price range( if the above count is correct. ) for this count to remain correct we should not see prices violate the 13605 level. a correction to the 137.08 level very possible as we look to be in a minor c wave correction.

positions I am currently out of my cattle position at 142 as my short term price obj was met on the downside.

The commercial traders are still heavy net short this market so that 137 print may very well come into play.

A little about wave 1

Wave 1 is an impulse wave that is made up of 5 sub waves as seen in the image above. Notice in this labeling that wave 2 does not go past the start of wave 1. 

The second thing that you should notice is that wave 4 (as shown above) does not penetrate the end of wave 1. If this should happen then your more likely looking at a corrective pattern than an impulse move. 

5th wave trgts for the flying hog mrkt

The hogs are in a 5th wave higher and could in fact hit as high as 108.17 on the June contract. Will be watching this market for signs of a turn as this market is counting as complete at current levels but 5th waves can do  3 things. Two of them have been ruled. 1 more to go. 

Could we be ready to ride a wave 3 in corn

Dec corn set up for a w3 higher? After breaking .786 fib number on the upside yesterday we have set up for a w3. To trgts of 485-487. 

Sugar wave 2 correction down coming???

Sugar could be starting the wave 2 before the wave 3 higher begins…. Targets for the wave 2 come in @ 15.04-15.33. 

Wave 2 coming in the Dow?

The Dow jones this morning looks to have completed the 5 waves lower to complete wave 1… a bounce to around the 15900-16000 is what I expect for a wave 2 in the form of a zig zag.

(Premium bought @ 15300. )

-side note is the commercial traders have bumped up the net longs on this last slide lower. 

sugar ...... lookin sweet ( update)

Sugar looks to be completing the 5th wave of wave 1 to the upside and now i will be watching for a wave 2 if in fact wave 5 of wave 1 is ending today. 

Natural Gas..... targets... will wave 5 of 3 extend???????/

 

My original target of 568 for the wave 3 fell short. So now i will be looking for wave 5 to extend to a price level of 642 on the daily chart.

 

Wave 2's in elliot wave...

Wave 2's in the wave formation :

- Wave 2 : a wave 2 is a corrective wave that usually will retrace .618 to .786 of the prior wave 1 in the form of a zig zag. . Sometimes it will even go as far as 100% of wave 1.  The only rule that must not be broken is that it MUST under no circumstance break the wave 1 starting point. 

These are examples of wave 2 formations and what they look like. For now we will just be concerned about identifying the lower zig zag formation. The best way to do this is to go and look at past charts and see if you can pick them out. EX(the Canadian dollar appears to be putting one in right now on the weekly chart) . The first clue that your count maybe correct is if you break the B wave on the upside if your looking at what you think may be  a wave 2 zig zag.

Is crude getn ready to dump to around 88 a barrel??????

 

Just glancing at the crude oil chart, it almost appears like we are in a double zig zag with the final downturn to start soon. I sure wouldn't mind seeing a push to about 88 as this will be counted as part of a wave 2 . It would also coincide with a trend line on the weekly chart. Right now looks like lower to me .

copper..... might have to roll the dice here....

While doing some chart surfing last night I came up on this chart on copper. it looks as if copper may be in for a bounce after the recent down draft on the daily chart. It looks like we are on a trend line support. could be a 1,2 1,2 but we would need to hold above 3.1350 for this count to be correct.

 

Japanese yen futures … rdy to dive again

Japanese yen looks like we are real close to correcting this little upswing… a big change in commercials decreasing their long position in a rising mrkt( futures). 

Side note. : futures go higher= forex currency moves down. Futures and forex are opposite. So I will be watching for a move higher in forex which means a push lower in futures.  

Has the d wave completed ????? I kinda think it has

Here is a look at the weekly Dow Jones chart..... Needless to say that thisABC and now finishing the D wave we have experienced since 2009 counts as complete!   I will be looking for the indices in general to begin its slide possible back to the 6000 level to finish an E wave.


 I hope I am wrong but this would explain setups I am getting in commodity markets for a big rise in food prices as investors will be looking to put money somewhere if this occurs...(commodities? )

Dec corn wave 3 setup is still there.....

Today we took out .618 level at 454 1/4 now we need to see .786 @ 456 3/4 get taken out and close somewhere near the 4.60 level. If this happens ,  I will be looking for the wave 3  first target of 4.86. 

My alternate count would be a finishing b wave looking for a c wave lower back to 440 where wave A will be equal in length to wave C for a zig zag. 

both these scenarios call for higher prices and the only thing that would change this count would be a break below the low of 435.00.  

Hard red spring wheat bottom?????

Wheat chart (weekly) looks to have possibly completed the wave 2. If this is the correct count . W3 is on the way.....see post from wed jan 29th.

Sugar update....

Sugar appears to be still in a w3 from Friday as seen here on the 90 min chart . A possible corrective 4 could be put in today. I'm looking at a small shallow corrective w4 as w2 was deep. Targets for the 5th wave is just under the 15.90-16 cent level to complete 5 waves higher.