FB update ABC correction in the works?

Facebook short term count is that we have finished the the A wave down and currently in the process of the B wave higher in the form of a ABC zig zag. This could target the 63-65 level. 

 After this is completed we should see a psh down to the 51.40 area and possibly lower to the second target of 44.88. That being said I'm not a buyer at these levels. 

2nd target for w4 June pork (deep zig zag)

Lean hogs are closing in on the next target at 115.30-115.80.…for the wave 4. I'm expecting a bounce and even a possible reverse from this level. Watching for now and if the lower targets are hit I will consider buying this market…

Sugar set to move higher????

Sugar may have put a bottom in today… the lowest target intra day is the 1726-28 area. It's starting to look like a wave 4 triangle. With the wave 5 to come.

Current count as of now is we are in a complex w4…

Best case scenario is we have seen wave 1 and wave 2 is finishing up with a w3 targeting 2242 if we get a full wave 3. 

Corn almost finished with w1 ?

Dec corn is setting up beautifully. 

Almost hitting my target of 509 1/2  from the wave 4 triangle breakout. 

 I'm currently long and will be looking for a spot to add to my position on the pullback that could start soon.

 Best case scenario and one I would like to see is that we have a run up to around 533 n change on an extended 5th wave and then the pullback into a w2 zig zag that should target the 470-480 price range. Once we start the correction I can be more precise in drawing my targets. 

Lean hogs … closing in on w4 trgts

June lean hogs are closing in on my 1st target at 11975.

Resting orders to close position at 11975.  

Coffee… are we seeing the w2 starting to form

Coffee looks ready to start the c leg lower after the spike this morning to the 196 area.  Target for the c leg down is the 13518 to the 150 level to finish the wave 2 . First I'm gonna need a break of 166 on the downside to confirm the wave c down  is underway.

Watching for now

Crude setup… will we reverse back higher ?

Crude oil has set up this morning for a long trade on one of my fave setups intra-day… let's see if we start moving higher after this mornings sell off.

Long position June  from 99.66. 

Quick look at Disney stock

$dis has gone far enough and actually thru the 1st wave 3 target of 68.50-69.00 to qualify for a full wave 3.  The second wave 3 "extended" target is 93.20-93.50. I'm still watching this market as I believe we are very close to a top here in the third wave with a w4 target to come in around the 60.00 price range. 

No position as of yet

Guess who awake… and hungry

After scoring new highs we have 5 waves down completed and possibly a w2. A close near the intra day lows or even a breakdown could send us lower to a target of 15449 if a full wave 3. 

Holding short 

Dow futures… will it take out 16540?

Yesterday's post regarding the Dow futures in still in play, but may possibly be invalidated. A push above the 16540 area will do this. If a new high is achieved the daily chart is showing a ABC to finish the 5th wave of wave 3. Trgt where A=C is 16560. 

Side note- Intraday 1 min chart shows a completed or very close to completed 5 waves up.

Positions holding short…

Lumber… where we going from here?

While looking over some charts tonight I came across the lumber chart and it caught my eye. I will be watching this market as I believe this thing could get rolling higher very soon. (Small position opened 332.90) 

Detailed wave counts on this mrkt with targets. Commoditykid@gmail.com n I'll send you my current count.

Facebook… update wave count

Facebook is looking great and I'm looking for the start of the c wave lower to around the 44-47 area as this was the prior wave 4.  (Still Holding short ). 

Order placed to sell under prior low at 59.00

Dow futures wave 2? Or are we moving on up?

Dow futures are still in a possible wave 2 correction… a breach of 16540 would negate this count… let's see how we play out.  I would really enjoy seeing this market put this wave 4 in… a push below 15979 opens the door to further declines. Targets would be the prior wave 4 near 14500. 

Weekly chart

Canada$… is w5 down ready to start?

Looking at the June Canadian dollar. The daily chart looks like a complex wave 4, with the last 5 wave up move happening now. My Upside targets come in at 9125 to 9180  to possibly finish the formation and then the reversal lower.  I will be watching here as I believe we are in the last stages of a c wave that targets the 8597 on the downside. 

Natural gas updated count

Natural gas with the recent push down appears to be in overlapping waves and looks like we are forming a wave 2 of wave 3. Targets for this wave on the downside are 4.248 down to 4.073 

april gold / june gold count modification.

As of this morning my first count invalidated as prices slipped below my 1280.10 price by about 3 bucks. the other related count was that we are still in a wave 4 deep zig zag but wave 1 ended at 1255.10 which would keep this count valid.  The other scenario is that this could very well be wave 2 as it qualifies on being deep enough and a zig zag which wave 2's often are. either way ill be watching for prices to push higher.

-  holding long june from 1293

Count for April gold…w2 or wave 4?

April gold moved as low as 1282.40 as of this writing and has yet to crack that 1280.10 level and the count currently remains as a wave 4. If however we do manage to trade underneath this price of 1280.10 then my count will change to a possible wave 2 zig zag. (Normally Wave 2's usually move 618-.786 of wave 1) this would move the target on the low side to 1227-1262.7. For now though I'm counting this as a deep wave 4   Positions holding long for now. 

Dec corn upside trgts…

Well that was quick -dec corn truncated the 5th wave down intraday to possibly complete the daily triangle and breaking out… upside target for dec corn 509 1/4…

Christmas corn setting up

Dec corn looks looks to be in the wave 3 lower of a corrective c wave of a flat forming that is near completion… Once this formation is complete I will be looking for much higher prices. Lowest downside target is 4681/2-472. 

As you can see buy the intra day 5-min chart the impulse down is plain to see and a push back to 4801/2 to 482 will be needed to move us out of the impulse down and set up one last leg lower. This will set up my trade. 

June lean hogs wave 4 happening?

June lean hogs are seeing a nice rally close to the highs we saw this month. It appears still to be in a complex wave 4 flat correction if we hold the highs. This is still my main count as of this post. 

$cat in a w2?

$cat looks its  putting in a zig zag for a wave 2 and a break under the 67.24 could move this stock back to 40-50 price range…target for the wave 2 to end would be 102 20-102.50. 

April/June gold is a extended wave 5 rdy to start?

April gold on the daily chart looks to be putting in a deep zig zag for a wave 4… if it is a w4 by no means should we move below 1280.10. As wave 3 did not travel it's full distance then a 5th wave extention should be expected. Very good chance I take a shot on the long side here as reward out weighs the risk here in my opinion.  

Positions. Long June contract 1293.50 

Facebook wave 3 down target approaching

Facebook has played out nicely and the wave 3 target is approaching at 60.00. I will be taking profits on half the position. And the other half will let go as I still believe we head lower…

Intraday wave 2 playing out in nat gas?

Looks like a possible 5 waves up on May nat gas and looks like we may be in a corrective wave 2 intraday… a push back to the highs breaking 442 and 443 today sets up a wave 3 higher to around the 4.60 price range if a full wave 3.

Holding long positions and will be adding on June and aug on a break over these levels mentioned above.  

Quick look at May feeders

Looking at May feeders it appears prices are moving in on my target of 18105 to 18115 for an extended wave 3. 

Normally I do not like selling wave 3,s but the risk reward on this trade will be low so I may step in front of this grinding 3 . Still watching for now.

April fats… wave 4 targets

April fats after chopping around some look to finally be heading lower in the wave 4… targets are 140.71 to 138.83 as I am expecting it to be a deep correction. 

Lean hog… we're in the money

Lean hogs appear to be putting in the wave 4 correction and it should be deep and a complex pattern. Targets are 11975 down to 11552. 

Positions :still holding shorts from low 132's

Natural gas n the golden number…

Natural gas almost hit the exact .618 number today at 4.248 on the May contract and held.. It also closed in what looks like a bullish candle so the wave 4 may have completed today and the wave 5 higher should begin soon. I'm also looking for this 5th wave to extend… 

This is my main count as of now. Once levels are broken on the upside I'll be able to draw targets for the 5th wave impulse.

Interest rates… where do we go from here?

On 3/13/14 I posted a shot at a bottom call for short term interest rates … I am revising my count a bit further out as it looks as if we have completed the "A" wave on dec 2016 euro dollars and currently working on the B wave. All we are gonna need now is the c leg that could possibly take the form of a contracting ending diagonal to finally bottom out interest rates in the May June time frame. 

The lowest target for the b wave would be the 9742-45 area but it's very possible that we have seen the low as of this morning on the contract at 9760 1/2.

I'm still watching this contract as I believe  this will be a great position for a long term ride to higher rates. 

No positions as of yet… patience is the key here.  

Targets if this is the correct count would be a test and possible breach of the old highs at 9870- 9880

Coffee… correcting in a w2

Coffee retracing perfectly… (see 3/15 post) 

 Coffee is getting very close to my first target around 162.50-163.00 and I will be taking profits on my short position. The correction appears to be setting up for a bottom and I will be looking to move back to the long side.  Watching for now. 

Cattle trade…wave 4 targets

Live cattle are finally pushing towards my wave 4 targets of 14075 to 13886 in a deep wave 4… ( April contract)) 

Sugar trade …

Great chance sugar has corrected enough in 1 of my fav setups. I'm currently buying as I have reached my target price of low 17's to high 16's. Now I need a quick reversal and a gring higher into the close

Positions: oct 1752,1753 and resting orders at 1745. 

Copper due for a bounce…

May copper looks to have finished the impulse down and I'm looking for a bounce and possibly a bottom in place . 

As you can see from the chart below , commercial traders are at an extreme on the daily chart and a nice bounce looks like it may be just around the corner.

Natural gas still in wave 4?

Natural gas looks to still be putting in a w4 corrective wave as they are overlapping and definitely not impulsive… 

It will cease to be a wave 4 if we get a push below the 4244 level. Right now it feels like a deep wave 4 as wave 2 was shallow.  We shall see if this is the correct count and if it is the wave 5 up it should be a doozy

Canadian dollar… 5th wave of c leg

The 5th wave of the c leg in this zig zag for a w2 looks almost complete. How can I tell we have broken into the 5th wave? Anytime you see a triangle forming the probability that you are in a 4th wave is very high. We just demonstrated this on the Canadian dollar and a target of 86.50 to 87 can be drawn. Another clue that we may be finishing up is that the commercials are heavy net long as you can see by the chart above.

June Pork… what goes up must come down

The pork has been relentless but it looks as if the 13227-13240 on the upside  is holding for the time being. A second count having June hogs starting the wave 1 @ 87.02 and ending @ 10212 is still a possibility and moves the wave extension to the 13740 area. My first wave extention will be the primary count @ 132.27-40. 

Positions: still holding short from 132.30 and 132.15. 

Pork top in place last night?

After watching pork for a while we have finally hit a price that may provide some good overhead resistance as my price target for wave 3 of three has been hit at 132.20-30 as stated in my last pork update.

 If this indeed is the correct count then we should see a deep wave 4 to 1st target of 119.10 and second target of 115.00. While wave 3's are dangerous to short the risk reward on this trade seems to be at a great ratio to trade. 

As of this writing we are currently 132.425 on June lean hogs…

Positions : short June from 132.15, 132.30 . 

Cup and handle setup for dec corn

Dec corn looks like after small 5 waves up we are in the process of making a cup and handle formation to bottom corn out. It appears we are in a possible zig zag for a wave 2. Target price for dec corn are 468.1/4. And once complete we should see a nice rally in a wave 3 of wave 1 on the daiIy chart. 

Dec corn daily chart

Coffee ready to retrace?

After a nice move. Coffee may have completed it's run up and ready for a correction after 5 waves higher. 

Position : short premium @ 2.00

Target: 140-150 in a wave 2 position. 

Sugar … have we finished w2 or w4??

My first thought is that we had a completed w1 and possibly still could have. The second scenario is still bullish but in a w4 that possibly completed today after hitting the .382 retrace this morning. 

Either way I believe we are setting up for the next run higher

Second scenario

Sugar has staged a nice rally to the w 3 target of 1848 and now we have been putting in a wave 4 that hit the trgt this morning of 17.57. Now if we get a full wave 5 we should reach somewhere in the vicinity of 19.17 . 

Interest rate bottom call…? I'll take a shot

Where do I think interest rates are going?… I'm gonna take a crack at a interest rate bottom call… for dec 2014 Eurodollar. I'm projecting a top between 98.40 to 98.60 around the 24 of this month. 

Amazon close to a top???? let's take a look

Amazon is most definitely in the final wave 5 higher but where will the 5th wave end and reverse. What I will be looking for is a complete 5 wave pattern higher. My first target is the 410-420 area assuming that this wave 5 does not truncate. A break below 337 will give us clues that this run higher is complete and a correction is coming

Nasdaq…1-2, 1-2 in place?

Nasdaq appears to be putting in a 1-2 1-2. Resistance at 3726 needs to hold if this count is to stand…. I will be selling a break under 13680 if we hold. 

Canadian dollar in w3 of the (c) leg?

Been a while since I last posted on the Canadian dollar so here goes.  

(Click chart to enlarge)

On the daily chart it looks like we are still in a third wave lower to possibly the 8657 level where I'm looking for a bounce in a wave 4. 

Now let's look at the monthly chart…this picture below shows a triangle being formed and and the 3rd leg of this triangle is close to being complete. 

I'm concluding we may see 8650 or so very soon and most likely to 8460-70 before we turn higher back to a target of 99.00 or so.  

Dag "double agriculture long" has wave 2 completed?

Dag (etf) looks like we have finished or very close to finishing the wave 2 and a w3 higher set to take over. For this count to be correct we must not break below the low made back in 2010. 

A break above 15 is the first clue that the w3 has taken over…

Nasdaq wave 2 intra day?

The Nasdaq futures hit an exact .618 in a possible wave 2 intra day in zig zag. A close near the bottom sets up a w3 lower to the 3620-30 level. 

Pork… do we get w3 extension ? Looks like it

June pork looks as if we are gonna get an extension in w3 of wave 3 that could reach as high as 132.20.  My short I had at 118 n change has been covered and will be waiting and watching this mrkt for the level mentioned above. 

Low Risk , high reward opportunity that's setting up.

The opportunity of a lifetime may be just around the corner… a low risk, high reward probability that may be in the final stages of its long term price movement higher. I watching for a new down trend in prices to take over most likely in the next couple months that should last for the next few years. Interested in learning what I am talking about? ( Email for my prediction)