has crude finished the D wave higher? is crude gettin ready to slide?

crude looks like we may have finished the D wave higher and ready to start the e wave decline to around the 86.50 level. the time frame is around the Oct time frame to finish this e wave. I'll be watching here as a short position sounds about right

Trade alert for sugar ....... 5 waves down complete?????

Sugar could have finished the flat formation for a wave 2 yesterday and I will be buying a break over the 18.91 area to add to my position and catch this possible wave 3 that if correct should push prices to a 1st target of 22.50 in a full wave 3......

good trading
CK

Who pulled out the rug… ???

Natural gas- natural gas has breached the 429.6 level which was the main count projecting prices to move higher in a w5 extention. With the breach we can conclude that wave 1 of  w3 has finished and now a possible shallow wave 2 in a zig zag. A clue of w3 of wave 3 will be a push over the 460 price.  A close over the 200 day mvg avg at 431 today may convince me to add here.

Corn-  opened lower this morning to my last target of 407.75 ( per last corn post and bounced… still holding longs as of now…

Sugar- ( will update with chart this afternoon.)

Apologize for the lack of charts this morning… will update individually this afternoon. 

Good trading…

Updates this weekend and a recap of…

Nat gas, sugar and corn…updates over the weekend so check back. 

Thanks for the emails… and happy 4th

Just wanted to day thank you for all the responses via email to receive my market commentary and updated counts. I really do enjoy doing this and if you ever need me to look at any markets or have suggestions please feel free to email me. 

Thnks again and happy 4th from orlando fla…

CK

Indices… are we finally topping?

Above is the chart for the Dow jones industrial avg hanging on the D wave completion line. About 400 points over to be exact.  I will be building a short position here as I believe the risk of being long is too great and a top could be put in any day now.  And if I'm correct the e wave is coming next. 

My guess is that this e wave impulse down will catch the majority off gaurd. price target comes in @17130

Good trading

feeder cattle updated count on a longer term chart

after a long time trying figure out where we are in the count by looking at a daily chart I figured i would go back and take a look at from way back to 74 and take a look. This picture becomes a bit more clearer and may shed some light on my marble head... It appears that we are in a wave major wave 3 that has a little more room to work higher has targets upward of 220.14-226.33. as major wave 2 was a flat Im expecting wave 4 to be a deep zig zag to the prior wave 4 of around 133 50 or so. until then I will be watching for these numbers. this also would coincide with the fats running up to my 163 target.

watching for this market to set up

Deep wave 2 for w2 of w5 in Sugar?

Sugar has now hit the .786 retrace for the possible deep wave 2. The target was 1776 and went through it by 5 ticks. It also coincides with the 200 day mvg avg that comes in at 17.79 on the oct contract.  We will see how we open this evening as I will be looking for a higher open this evening, and a possible start to the 3rd wave. 

I feel a reversal coming..... christmas corn

Corn had an exciting day after the report as it slid some 20 plus cents to hit my target of 425 and hold there for the close. I can now count 5 wave lower and a possible reversal in the making as there are only several scenarios for wave 5 and we can scrap two of them as of this post. The daily chart below will show the labeling and what I will be watching for.  I'm looking for the reversal though.We will see what comes about .

Is the US dollar set to slide to 75 possibly and lower?

I think this is very possible as I believe the C wave of  wave D in an ABCDE triangle is playing out.... below is the weekly chart showing the current A B and a possible start of the C wave lower. and if its correct we should be seeing a decline in the dollar to around the 75 level and possibly lower towards 68.

Here is also the monthly chart of the US dollar and you can see a perfect triangle forming! As you know I am bullish commodities and this is part of the reason.....!!!!

Here is the count shown on the monthly chart showing the trade setup and triangle forming. once complete we shouls see a complete collapse down to to a minimum first target of 55-56.

Nat gas 5 waves down of the c wave complete ?

Aug nat gas expanded flat for wave 2 of wave 5 is still in play as the targets for the c wave have hit at around the 440 level . I can also count 5 waves down as being complete on the daily chart. If this is the correct count wave 5 should begin this week. Watching for a gap higher open this evening.  

Weekend look at sugar…

Best case scenario—

we have completed 5 waves up on may 16 and wave 2 ended on June 13th at the prior wave 4 at 1747 as a shallow wave 2. A push back toward the high at 1891 and break of this sets up the wave 3 impulse. Trgt comes in at 2263 if this in fact is the start of the wave 3. 

I can count 1-2-3-4 waves higher from June 13th. Now I just need to see the 5th wave higher this week to complete w1 of the w3. Should be an eventful week!!  

#Holding longs

Aug fats ...... short positions covered and updated count.... its so clear so what was i looking at????

Aug live cattle are currently in the last leg of the 5th wave extended  move higher and I have been miserably short this market for the last month or two and have been dead wrong. As of now the count that makes the most sense is the one that I have listed above. This count shows wave 1 a wave 2, a small impulse for wave 3 higher a deep 4th wave and a 5th wave that  is currently underway. My new target for this final wave to complete is somewhere around the 16360 level. I'm happy to say I'm out of this market and will be watching for this count to complete. Sometimes ya gotta just admit when your wrong. 

dec wheat deep wave 2 coming to an end?

Dec wheat looks like we are finishing up a possible wave 2 that could terminate at any time here and start moving higher. The lowest target I have is around the 485 and if this level comes into play I will be very interested in trading this market from the long side.

check out whats coming.....

I will be starting a subscription service soon for traders that want certain groups of commodities. These groups will be the grains : (corn wheat, beans ). The meats: ( lean hogs ,fats and feeders) and Softs: ( sugar coffee cotton cocoa and OJ. )

 Pricing will be a annual rate and start as low as .50 cents a day per group and you will be only paying for actual days the market is open for trading, which equates to ($125.50 for the year ).More info to come ....

In the mean time if you would like to see what you will be getting with the service and a 2 week trial please email at commoditykid@gmail.com and you will start receiving the updates daily.

a look at the softs commodities mainly sugar and oj ( update)

Orange juice sept contract has traded down to a possible wave 2 level on a flush out of yesterday and today. I will be watching here as we are deep enough for this move to be a wave 2 flat nearly completed with this move down. target comes in at 150.90 and  146.36....

sugar - has tested the .382 level in a wave 4 and its possible we may see a push towards the 1814 basis july in a 5th wave of wave 1. a break above 18.28 and 18.57 sets up the wave 3 to my first target of 22.05.

Aug fats.... they are giving me fits

This market has certainly been great for the longs and my count has been off on this market so I went back to see where I might have been off.  Its a little more clear as we are still in a wave 3  that could target 15060. if we get a full wave 3.
 I am still painfully short this market from the 143 level.we will see if this price target hits.painfully holding short and have resting orders to sell a breach of 15050.

my target remains the same as Im expecting a deep decline in a wave 4 to the 13650-13700 area.

is it finally time to tip the feeders????....heres what i need to see

AUG  feeders have hit my target of 210.35 and actually was limit up hitting 211.00
I still believe that a top is close here to finish wave 5 of wave 3. I need to see a 5 wave push lower intra day to consider selling this mrkt.
IF we are close to correcting we should expect to see a deep zig zag for a wave 4,  as wave 2 was a flat correction. This should target 194.51 and most likely lower to 189.64.  (patience is the key here). still waiting but im getting antsy to short this market.

- I will put up a trade alert if and when I see what im looking for.

Just an obsevation about the corn market

If there is one thing that I have learned trading any market and its a rule i live by trading . Is that if the small trader is heavy/extreme net short any market,  chances are that the market is set up for a reversal to take them out. Im looking this same set up in corn and we could be in for a (20 cent plus) run higher here in the next couple days. I could be wrong but I hope I'm right! Lets watch and see.  holding longs. 

dec corn updated count plus a second option. ( nothing has changed much)

Dec corn after posting some gains last night may have topped into a shallow wave 4 that could trade around in some kind of a complex triangle before moving into a wave 5 lower. The count of last week is still in play until the low of 435 is taken out.
(the alt count is a wave 5 lower and a 1st target of 425.

# holding longs

nov beans daily chart and count

 Chart above showing the wave 1 and wave 2 scenario with wave 3 targets


There are a couple different counts that im playing with here The bullish count  is that wave 1 is finished and a shallow wave 2 has been put in or we are just now starting the 5th wave higher in an extended wave 5 that could target the 1484 level. both of these counts would call for higher prices. (For the wave 5 scenario to play out the 1198 level must not be violated.)

The second scenario is that we have finished 5 waves higher and currently in the B wave of a zig zag for a wave 2 with the c leg lower to come.

The fifth wave scenario I gave is my preferred count as of now just as long as 1198 does not get violated.  a break of 1252 on the upside is going to be the first clue that my count of the 5th wave higher  may be correct.

no position here as of yet
 

Natural gas wave 1 of 5 completed?

Wave 1 of wave 5 looks to have completed and the high we saw of 488 on 6/16 appears to be a b wave of an expanded flat for possible wave 2 of wave 5 which could target as low as 438-443. we are in the vicinity of the .618at 450 and the .786 comes in at 443 n change. this move down from 6/16 looks impulsive and this would be in line with the 3-3-5 wave structure of a expanded flat. I will be watching to see if 448.9 holds

watching this market for now to see how we play out.

My goal for you…

As you can see by my blog here I follow these markets consistently. It's my job and passion to help my clients capitalize on markets in any condition.   Unfortunately,most have only experienced commodity trading as a no win scenario.

 While I would enjoy the opportunity to trade with you and show you this method. What I'm more interested in is that you are learning a method that will help you make sense of any market you trade. To learn a plan of action for yourself, develope that plan and be confident to trade it so that  you are not surprised by any market action. 

You know that gut wrenching feeling you get when the market moves against you on a day to day basis and your hoping it will turn around soon? ( that's you not having a plan) ! It's time to stop that feeling. 

Email me:  ( commoditykid@gmail.com) and let's talk…having a plan and being confident in it makes a world of difference believe me. 

Allow me to show you what took me over 20 years to learn.

CK

What to look forward too in the Week ahead…

The start of a new week will bring somesetups in the commodity market that I will be posting on. 

As I don't have time to post them all, I have had several requests to do an evaluation on the soybean market with a current count that I will update on Monday Mrng. So come check back.

Want an update on a market I haven't covered? I'm just an email away… 

Commoditykid@gmail.com 

dec corn update are we looking at the 4th wave up of the 5th wave?

Looking at Dec corn on the daily chart below with this last push down looks impulsive and possible finished just above my 336 call to finish a w3 of the 5th wave and a  Wave 4 higher now to target 466-475 maybe brewing.... as wave 2 was a simple deep zig zag.  Ill be watching for wave 4 to be a flat or some kind of shallow triangle correction. 

my second thought is that this a wave 2 but it appears to impulsive with no overlapping waves. holding long for now. Any questions or markets you would like me to take a look at please feel free to ask. commoditykid@gmail.com

Nat gas update… w2 intraday?

Nat gas appears to be putting in a double zig zag intraday for a possible wave 2. 455 will be where wave a=wave c .  If that does happen the sept trade stop may get taken out where we put it in 8 cents lower from my fill yesterday. Hopefully c wave falls short. 

The big corn bottom… are we there yet?

Haven't posted on corn in a bit so here it is.

Looks as if corn could turn higher in the coming weeks and trade into a w4 and a possible truncated w5 down. Either way I believe a significant bottom maybe close at hand after almost hitting my 336.0 number on 6/17 as I stated in my last post. Updated market count on dec and march corn are available via email. 

Positions: Still holding long in dec and most likely will add in mrch.

Good trading

One on one training…

Interested in one on one training? I'll show you how it works. Just email me and We can get started. Commoditykid@gmail.com

Low risk trade setup…

2 markets set up for low risk trade.  Here's one… currently order to buy mini sept nat gas @ 467. See if we get hit. (Risk is 8 cents if filled). 

sept coffee wave 1 complete and zig zagging in wave 2?

Sept coffee is looking like we are putting in the last leg of deep zig zag for a wave 2 and targets come in at (158.20 = .618)  and 163 n change( A=C). Wave 2's usually retrace .618 of wave 1 there are however exceptions as they can retrace the entire move of wave 1. price must not break the low of where wave 1 started. While I don't think this is going to be the case markets usually do what you don't think they will do and coffee is notorious for that! I will be watching this market to try and time an entry. If this is a wave 2 and (I hope its a deep wave 2 ) next will be an exciting wave 3.
 
Good trading
CK

Aug feeders top in place ?

Feeders have extended the wave 3 to 3.00 of the distance traveled from wave 1   And the target came in at 210.35. I will be watching for a top to be in here and a wave 4 to begin. 

Aug fats..... will they ever stop?

the cattle market has been on an unbelievable tear but I'm still looking for this wave 3 to terminate and retrace into a wave 4 which could target as low as 136. As  you can see on the daily chart below, a throw over of the trend line to the upside may have finished this markets momentum.as I can count 5 waves higher with wave 1 of the 3rd wave extending.( I'll be watching for 5 waves down intra day on this market and a test of that broken uptrend line at 14550.

 

Facebook… rdy to slip n fall

Facebook looks like we are set to finally see this C wave down to the prior wave 4 of 47-48 and possibly lower to the 45 level. Count still remains in tact from the last update and I'm holding short. 

Grain update.. has wave 2 ended ?

DEC Wheat

The grain market ( corn and wheat) after a slide last week could have bottomed in a wave 2 on Friday. As you can see the chart labeled below on Dec wheat ,we have touched the .786 support level to finish the possible wave 2. Now i will be watching for an Intra day 5 wave move to higher prices and a possible break of  659/3/4 as my first clue that wave 3 may be underway. This is my main count as of now. Invalidation would be a push below 577 3/4 on the daily chart. we will see what happens here.

Small position long from 625 this morning basis dec.

Nat gas… extended w5 target

Nat gas took out the B wave at 463.5 on the daily chart and looks like the extended wave 5 is on the way… target comes in at 6.29. 

Dec corn update. Painful slide for me Extended wave 3? lets look at a chart

looking more and more like the up move that we saw from the beginning of jan was in fact a wave 4 of the Longer term expanded flat and we are now getting the 5th and final wave down. As labeled in the chart above we had a wave 1 a wave 2 and wave 3 looks to be unfolding as an extended wave 3 that could push as low as 436.0.  wave 4 should unfold as a complex wave( flat or a triangle   and there is a good chance that we may truncate the 5th lower. I am however still holding long from the low 470's 466 and 452 as this is my current count as of now.

CK  

Nat gas… update

Appears wave 1 of 5 has concluded and we are getting an ABC zig zag for wave 2 of 5.... Wave A from yesterday was 13 cents in length and wave C today is almost to that length as we are down 11 cents. Trgt is in the 4.50 range. 

Trade setup for aug fats…

Aug cattle set up yesterday and last night and I am currently short this mrkt @ 143.00 . Normally not my fav setup but we have hit my extended w3 trgt and I will be looking for a deep corrective wave 4. 

Aug Fats..... completed 5th wave or complex wave 4????

 The cattle market has definitely been on a tear lately but could a correction be coming???
Aug fats look like they are  headed for a correction to a possible low of around the 135-136 area.  As my first target was hit on Friday of 141.65 and 142.00  I'm thinking a correction is coming.

CK

Orange juice update

orange juice is putting in the grinding wave 3 higher on the daily chart and is looking good so far as this count is looking better and better. 1st Target is 182.30 as I am still holding long. As I believe that this market will move much higher over the next few years.

 Good trading
CK

Lumber wave 5 completed?????

Lumber updated count 

Looks as if July Lumber has completed or close to completing the 5th wave down of the C leg as a clear 5 wave pattern is seen. 

On the weekly chart you can see that a push down to 290 would be very possible where wave A would equal wave C  if this is playing out to be a wave 4 triangle.  ( you can see this better on the weekly chart below )   the 200 day moving avg on the weekly chart comes in at 296 n change .  my  targets if a wave 4  triangle would be around the 365 area in a D wave. My only requirements for this trade is we must not move into the price range of 270.20 

Weekly Lumber chart

Trading is done… commodity happy hour.

Dec Corn :  after pushing thru my support numbers managed to close over my last support number of 452 as there is a great chance that a bottom of wave 2 has been seen. ( position holding longs) 

Soy oil : looks to have also run it's course today per my post this week and finished off with a nice rally today. 

Holding small position long

sugar had a miserable week but did manage  a possible shallow wave 2 in the July contract but managed to hold support on the daily chart at 1682. 

the weekly chart is showing a possible finished  ABC of a triangle. Needing the D wave and E (final wave) to complete. If this is the case I would like too see a rally toward 1810 in the week ahead. 

Holding longs…

Have a great weekend… if you have markets you would like me to take a look at please feel free to drop me a note.

CK

Sugar update … July now considered a w2

July sugar has breached the low of 16.82 and by rule wave 4's cannot move into the price area where wave 1 ended. Therefore what Im looking at now appears to be a wave 2.  

Long term sugar chart ...... If I have this correct its gonna be a fun ride.

As you can see from the chart above I can count what I believe to be a wave 1 and then what appears to be a  finished wave 2 that most likely ended at 14.72. we are however below the .786 support at around 17.91. A little something about wave 2's is that we can retrace the entire move up we just cannot violate where wave 1 began back in 5/7/2010 of 13.00. What I would like to see is a move back above that .786 level of 17.91 and have it hold as I believe we are in the very beginning stages of a wave 3 higher which if correct could begin at any time that could target as high as 52.06 if wave 3 is equal to 1.618 of wave 1. I will be watching this market closely as I Will be looking to Add to my positions in march 2015 contract and further out with some out of the money call options.

 A break back over the 20.16 mark and more importantly the 31.85 level which would be counted as the B wave of the zig zag will be our first clue that wave 3 has begun.

Remember if this is a third wave starting it will divide up into a 5 wave impulse pattern that looks to have started at a low of 14.72. Time will tell.

(Note : this is just my opinion on what I'm seeing and by no means is this a recommendation to buy or sell this market)

good trading
CK

Dec soybean oil bottoming out ?

On the daily chart it looks as if we are finishing a wave 2 zig zag or could possibly finish it any day now as we have hit a target where wave A will be equal in length to wave C. The next possible target to would be where wave C would be .618 of wave A. The only way that this count becomes invalidated is if we move just one tick below 37.72 on the daily chart.

Dec Soybean oil

small position taken 3853 basis Dec

Good trading

Dec corn update for june 2 2014

Dec corn has hit my first and second target and closing in on a (.786) of  452 and  a possible deep wave 2 that could possibly end today in a bullish candle morning star reversal pattern.
Below is the daily chart labeled waves that I am currently looking at and is my main count as of this writing.

 

Here is a quick pict and definition of a candle in a star position

Facebook update… B wave complete?

Facebook stock has moved to the 63-64 range in what appears to be an ABC "B "wave and it looks like the C wave lower is ready to begin any time now.

As my last few post on FB say my Price projection is for the C wave to end would be 44.50-47.50 

June Lean hogs putting in the deep wave 4 in a zig zag ?

Ever since we hit the extended wave 3 June lean hogs are putting in a 4th wave on a daily chart in a deep zig zag formation. I will be watching for 106-109 to hold.  wave A will be equal in length to wave C at 109.27.

Intraday set up for nat gas…

Wave 3 is setting up in nat gas intraday and a break over today's high of 4665 basis July targets as high as 503 , 504.  

Buying Christmas corn trade setup

- Here's the candle setup that happened yesterday in Christmas corn on the daily chart

Yesterday's close on dec corn was a positive in both wave counts and candle structure. We have pushed down far enough to qualify as a w2 to 466.  We will wait and see how we play out as I believe we are close to finishing this correction. 

Best case scenario :I would like to see the low from yesterday hold but it's not necessary as .786 support comes in at 452 1/4. 

Holding long from 472,466 and 465. 

$DJI… main and alternate counts… staying short!!!

Here is count #1 that I'm currently watching and it's in an ending diagonal trade that would call for one more high , possibly to the 16775-17000 before we turn lower toward where the triangle started and most likely much lower. 

The 2nd count is that we have seen the high already as we have 5 wave pattern lower from the high of 16735.50 and we are hanging around .786 level that qualifies as a completed wave 2. The only rule that would disqualify this trade would be a break above 16735.50 to a new high.

Both these counts are in play right now and I am holding short and looking to add to my position as both counts are pointing to a push lower to come soon.

Sugar update… wave 4 flat or w2?

Sugar opened this morning down and extended it's decline under some support of 1705 and 1707. I can now count 5 waves down from the high from 5/14 of 1828  as this is one of my fave set ups to the long side. I'm looking for a reversal to come and possibly coming today.

 This could be counted as a w4 flat and at completion usually preceeded by a w5 extention. I think we will see shortly.

Wave 2 scenario:

 The w4 is still counted as a w4 unless we move into the vicinity of 16.82. If this occurs then the 16.50 range and the advance from 1/28- 3-/3 will be counted as a completed w1. With a w2 underway. 

Current position still holding longs. 

Dow futures… time to sell?

This morning I will be selling the Dow futures June contract 16540  the low side is  Target is 16170-16200. In a c wave to finish the zig zag. 

Bullish doji star on sugar …

Sugar managed to hold on to the 1733-34 area and close in a bullish doji star. 

(A doji morning star is a bullish reversal pattern )

Now what I would like to see is a gap higher open and close higher on tues. It's very possible this was a deep wave 2. 

Holding longs

Sugar must hold levels…

Sugar after a strong rally last week has been on slide and what I thought was a completed triangle has yet to complete… for the current count to invalidate we would need to push below the high of 16.82 which is still a ways off. Today's support comes in at 17.33 which could still be a wave 2 intraday but 1705 and more so 1707 needs to hold and reverse. 

Current count is still in play as a w4 triangle but a break of these levels would set up a move to the 16.50 area

C leg of wave 4 flat… are we fi

Natural gas has hit my target of 437.0 this afternoon and slid to just under 435.50 as of this writing.  While it is possible to move back to the low around 429.3 we must not go/penetrate the 4286 price as this would negate the wave 4 flat formation scenario and take the extended 5th wave off the table. 

If this does happen to play out this way a wave 2 of wave 3 will be in the cards…

Dec wheat… 1st part of the correction complete?

Dec wheat looks to have completed 5 waves higher and I will be looking for a w2 in a zig zag formation .… 1st target comes in at 648.

 It also looks like the first leg of the possible zig zag lower is close to completing. Trgt to complete would be around the 670 price range. Tough to tell at this stage. This is what I would like to see play out.  a break of 686 3/4 would open the door to 670

No position as of yet

Sugar intra day update… wave 2 intraday?

After a nice rally last week we see sugar slide and are currently trading at 1751-52 on July contract which is exactly .618 of the move up from 1705 to 1825. If this is in fact a wave 2 (intraday) of the 5th wave then a reversal back to the high should take place very soon setting up the wave 3 higher. 

Holding long positions and will be watching to see if we get the reversal to set up the wave 3

Dec corn… 1st target hit

Dec corn has hit the first target of 472…where wave A= wave C. 

Position taken (dec )buying premium 472.0. To start new position… next lower target comes in 466. 

Dec corn… w2 in progress ?

Dec corn looks to have completed wave 1 and now look to be working on a wave 2. Most likely in a zig zag or possibly in an expanded flat. Will watch how this plays out. 

Observation : all the grain markets look like they are putting in w2's. 

Nat gas… update

Nat gas is looking like the 4th wave  of the c leg down could be in progress. Now the question is do we truncate the 5th wave. It looks like there is a good chance of it happening, as I believe a 5th wave extension higher is coming soon.