Is dollar Rally a mirage???

The US dollar looks to be moving toward the e wave target at 85.05-86.00. Of the B wave triangle… if this is the correct count the US dollar could be in some trouble. E waves will often throw over the trendline and fail… we will see what happens here. 

Dec crude oil…

Dec crude is continuing to slide and the 85.00 -87 price target is looking very attainable at this point to finish the ewave of the triangle. Watching

Sugar invalidation of wave 1 ???

Sugar is approaching an invalidation point for the wave 2 at 1470 . I have covered my position as of the 1st of this week tues and will be waiting for this to play out as the rally this morning has failed miserably. On a side note wave 2's are allowed to completely retrace wave 1 but cannot go under the beginning of wave 1 which in this case is 14.70 on the front month oct contract…

Back from vacation!!!!

After a brief vacation last week I'm back and it looks like there are some things setting up… if you would like any particular market updated counts please feel free to write!

 

Euro …

The euro after sliding last week has formed what appears to be possibly the bottom that I have been waiting for and spoke of about a week ago in one of my posts.  I will be watching for a gap higher this evening as I am still holding long from 132 and again from 13130 today.  Trgts come in at 13350-13450. 

Euro currency

The euro looks to have finished the psh on the downside. Will be taking a long position here 13202. 1st Trgt comes in at 13380-13400.

Sugar… wave 2 in progress intraday?

5 min chart of march sugar looks like 5 waves up completed and we are zig zagging into a w2. 17.55-17.60 first target for wave c to conclude.  A close back near the highs today would set up a w3

Nov beans… new low n reversal?

Is a new low and reversal in the cards today?  I will be adding to positions in nov under 1040. Happy trading. This could be a big one! 

Dec crude oil update. E wave in progress

Above is the weekly chart of crude oil and it looks like the ewave of the triangle is finishing. Targets come in 88 as we are setting up this market for a big run up in my opinion. (Watching this market as of now). 

Sugar… to hold or not to hold! .786

After the continuation grind lower and again down another 6 this morning oct sugar is struggling to even have an up day. Currently we are still looking at a possible deep wave 2. The 1450 on the current oct contract is the .786 level and a common target for wave 2's to travel to. We must not by any means push below the 14.70 area. A perfect situation would be a bounce in a 5 waves starting today. ( The mrch contract .786 is 17.28) and we are currently trading just above that number.  

Wave 2's often are steep zig zags and this last leg down C wave is almost identical in length to the A wave. 

Dow must hold levels…or else!!!

A break of the b wave @ 16518 would not be good as it sets up the 3rd wave lower to around 15010 if wave 3 is just 1.618 of wave 1… on the intra day chart.

The weekly Dow jones has retested the break down around the 16730-16850. Imm my opinion the top has been put in and the e wave lower has begun…

October crude wave 2 almost at an end?

Oct crude on the daily chart is creeping up on the first target of the possible wave 2 end at 94.90.  Watching

Downside target hit on nov soybeans!

The downside target has been hit this morning on nov beans at 1040… and my buy orders were activated…. Onward and upward!!!! 

Softs and some currency.

-Sugar has been trying to break higher but has been unable to do so. We are still in the possible deep wave 2… holding long positions in mrch and may. 

- dec cotton has been grinding higher as of late with a possible start of the wave 4 higher towards 67-69 in a deep correction. Holding long from just under 64.00

- British pound : the pound is now trading at a possible wave 4 level so will be watching this level to hold.

- Euro currency : looks to be in a w4 triangle with the E wave higher still to be completed. With a push lower to possibly 13320. Currently flat as of this writing

Updates… sugar, cotton, corn euro and cable

I will be updating these markets this evening

Thnx

CK

Euro… Mrng update

The euro looks as if we are currently in a w4 flat of wave C… this should be a more complex pattern possibly in the form of a triangle or a flat that should target the 13475-13520 level on the upside. 

Sugar update… did wave 2 complete?

Sugar after completing 5 waves higher from the start of jan looks very much like it has possibly completed a nice shallow double zig zag for a wave 2. A push back to the high of 18.50 sets up the wave 3 and targets 2211 if we get a full wave 3.  This is a risk reward here to my liking and I will be adding to my position in the mrch and May time frame. 

GBP bounce coming?

The British pound is coming up on some support that comes in at 16785 and I'm expecting a bounce back to the 169-170 price target.  

dec corn quick update

above weekly corn

 

Here are two corn charts.The one above is a weekly chart and the one below is a daily. As you can see we are in the final stages of the 5th wave down in what appears to be an expanded flat for a wave 2 as seen on the weekly chart. The question is where will this 5th wave end. it very well could end somewhere in the vicinity of 3.00but do we get a bounce before then. my feeling is yes but we will get a possible wave 4 of the fifth wave and it should correct deep most likely back to around the 4.00 again we will have to wait and see.

interesting to see that both commercials and large specs are long this market. The only ones that are short? u guessed it small specs

sugar update..... deep zig zag for wave 2????

Sugar still is grinding lower as of this morning in a possible wave 2 deep double zig zag.... for this count to remain we will need to see the low that was made on this contract (oct) hold at 15.72 . If we do infact hold then a push back towards the high will set up the wave 3 to the 22-23 mark. but first Lets see if we can get an up day. 

There is a pattern that is repeating with commercials and large traders.... can you see it ?  the small trader is also reaching an extremely short position which again makes me think that the next big move higher is getting ready to play out.

we will see

euro trade update.... still some room on the upside?

As you can see we are pushing lower in the $EC and my buy is still in effect as the commercials are showing a extreme net long position and large traders are showing a extreme net short. what concerns me at this time are the small traders and are at an extreme net short also.  i'm looking for a break back to the upside in the coming days. this actually works well with the current count as i have a triangle forming. The d wave could have possibly completed just over 139 or still has some room back to the upside. a break back over 13515-20 and hold will be our first clue this d wave is not quite over yet.


Current position long from 13375-13360  

Getting your mind ready for trading…let me show you

In trading these markets ,all traders

Need to be able to see the trade and 

Visualize how it should play out.

Everything you want to see happen.

Simply visualizing and picturing ur plan

the way you want it to unfold has a

wonderful effect, and it helps with your

Internal confidence when trading.

The exercises I use are easily learned/applied having a lasting effect on the 

mind. 

Enhancing the trading experience 

          Let me show you how

CK

Cotton dec update and questions answered

Cotton after sliding thru my last support at 63.97 by another 2 full points to just above 62 is looking like this w3 could have concluded. (If you would like my updates for when I get in and when I get out then you will have to email and I can inform you when I take a trade on and off) . Unfortunately I don't know where the bottom may be! I just trade my signals.… That being said I am holding long at just under 64.00. 

The stock market and the dollar will dictate the Feds move!

Its of my opinion and my opinion only that the fed will not only keep the balance sheet the way it is but start adding as the Dow starts it's decent. This will obviously put pressure on the dollar and move it lower. When this move by the fed fails to halt the market decline this is when the about face will occur and interest rates will be forced higher to try to protect the US dollar from further decline. 

This is how I see it playing out in my head . 

British pound to 180?????

British pound appears to be in a wave  3 that could extend up to 180+ Despite all the talk of a strong US dollar. We are however very close to the uptrend line channel that wave 3's normally tend to trade. Trgts come in on the downside @ 16866-16878.  

Position currently long at 16884

Dec cotton trade…

Dec cotton has pushed to the lowest target in a w3 so If this is a reg wave 3 of 1.618 we should see a deep w4 start soon.  Premium bought 63.95 dec

Euro currency low risk trade

The euro is currently at a possible bottom here at 13375 and in my opinion a small risk high reward scenario. Premium bought 13375…

Sugar update…

Sugar still looks to be in the last and final leg down in a c wave of wave 2. Commonly i find that wave 2's especially in commodities will often retrace .786 of w1 and sometimes further. My targets come in from 16.33-16.46 for and end to this w2. 

Unhappy with your current broker????want 2 see a window into how I trade… I will be more than happy to work for you in refining your trading techniques. It will be my pleasure. 

Email: Commoditykid@gmail.com 

Euro currency…bounce coming

Sept euro currency looks to be ready to bounce here possibly back to the 13560. Let's see if we do. 

Weekend look at nat gas

Sept daily nat gas…

Natural gas is holding a .786 at around the 3.77-3.74 area for a possible deep wave 2 of major wave 3.  This flat count would be invalidated on a break below the low made back in nov 2013. As long as we hold and do not break this level wave two could finish at any time… 

Dec cotton… bottoming at 68.00-64.00? ?

After a small bounce from just under 68 back to 69 in dec cotton it appears that the downside target of 64 and an end to this decline comes in play… setting up as we could turn quickly. 

Intra day corn dec

The move up this morning was corrective and 5 waves down intraday can count as complete. Lower trgt comes in at 363 1/2. Order to Buy premium 364.0

Facebook wave B of the expanded flat finishing today?

Looks like we are in 1 of two scenarios? 1st scenario being that the a wave completed at 54 n change and the B wave of the expanded flat wave 4 will finish today with a reversal lower and a C wave should be expected that moves prices well below 54. This is my first and main count, as wave 2 was a simple zig zag. 

2nd scenario would be that we have completed the 4th wave and the wave five could finish shortly. 

Let's see that reversal today

Will this be the headline soon?

As I watch the morning news on cnbc  I hear many different arguments about how the economy getting better as people are moving back to work. As a technical trader I try very hard to concentrate on what is happening on the charts and not so much what people are saying. I must say, again that This chart pattern on the Dow looks to be complete.  I'm fully expecting the E wave lower of this triangle to start at any time now. This move will most likely be a sharp sell off and catch many of these hedge fund traders on the wrong side of the market. We will see how we play out! 

Natural gas…wave 3 finished and rally?

: We are currently still holding around the .786 of the move up from last Nov.  This last push down does look impulsive and I can count 1,2 and a 3 that had a target of 3.81 and 3.74 on the daily chart. If this is the case we should see a possible rally in a 4th wave that should be deep and take us back to the 395-408.  Maybe the rally starts today? 

Nov beans… morning commentary

Nov beans slide continued on mon and tues but like corn the chart reads somewhat different. I can now count 5 waves down as almost being complete as a push down to the 1040  may still possibly materialize. That being said this leg down as shown in the chart above is looking complete and the bull run is ready to resume. All the signs are pointing to much higher prices in the next couple years…

Dec corn… here we go

Dec corn after sliding on Monday and Tues surpassing my targets of 380 on the downside by 10-15 cents. Is not uncommon especially when you get a finishing 5th wave of what I am counting as an expanded flat that started back on May 30th 2011. This market has gone far enough to count as complete and I am adding to my position as I believe the start of a major uptrend is setting up. No doubt this move could catch traders off guard as this move is pricing in a monster crop in my opinion.

nat gas on the .786. will we reverse in a wave 3?

natural gas for aug delivery is currently trading right at the .786 support for a possible end to wave 2. A push back to the 4.89 sets up the wave 3 of wave 3.. to a target of 5.94

Dec corn .... update

Dec corn again even with the gap down lower this morning looks as if wave 3 could terminate at any time now with wave 4 starting to the upside to target the 440-460 price range in a shallow complex pattern possibly in some kind of triangle.  Then all is left is a wave 5 down that can do one of 3 things.

will we get to 1145 in beans ????

 daily November Beans :

I am watching for a push higher in a c leg of an simple zig zag wave 4 that should target as high as 1145 if we get a full wave 4. then all we need is a 5th wave down to complete the formation.

for a more in depth commentary email commoditykid@gmail.com

good trading
CK.

Dec wheat intraday

Here is an intraday chart of dec wheat and it looks as if we are putting in a w2 that could be close to finishing up this morning. We are approaching some support at 566 .  If this is a w2 I'll be watching for a break out over 585 in a wave 3 to trgt of 613-616 if we get a full wave 3. We will see… I will update again today....

Wave 3 lower setup for the $DJI…

Intraday picture of the $DJIA… there is still plenty of time to start this wave 3 lower but a break of the low today sets this trade lower and if it is a w3 then we should target 16873 if a full wave 3. 

$DJI… topside target n why I'm a skeptic here

Topside targets come in on the Dow at 17161 however I'm adding to short positions at these levels as the risk is too great to be long from here in my opinion… as this could get ugly quick…

 

I will see how we close this week to see if I want to remain short…. Current short position sold premium sept futures 17060. 

Dec corn n nov beans… higher again?

Higher once again…

Dec corn after hitting the intra day target yesterday has pulled back and any push back to the low of 378 1/4  I will be purchasing once again… holding long

Nov beans- intraday targets come in at 1120 and 1132 . Holding long

Sugar testing the .618… to hold or not to hold?

Oct Sugar is testing the .618 support for a possible wave 2 at 16.93 this morning. We would  like for this number to hold today… holding on to long positions and the only way I would be adding to it is on a break of 18.50 and then on a break of 18.83 for a wave 3 breakout. Wave 2's the majority of the time move to the .618 level in a zig zag and that is what we are looking at as of now…. 

dec corn quick targets this morning

Dec corn 1st target comes in at 391-392 today when and if  targets are hit today I will be watching for a small pullback and then a push higher towards the 4.00 area. want more info on how you can trade with me and learn my methods.... commoditykid@gmail.com lets get started

into a wave 3 intraday on dec wheat?

December wheat looks like we may be starting to head higher and short term my target is 579 1/2  in a full wave 3 intra day.... this is playing out nicely as if I am correct this should be the beginning of a BIG move higher in the next couple years... want more info on how you can learn what I do...email me.... commoditykid@gmail.com

Corn update and potential bottom in place

On 7/10 I posted a 60 min chart showing the downside targets. (3.80-3.95 )They have been hit and I will be looking for the reversal and the bottom to be in place… 

Market that's setting up… I don't get paid unless you profit

Interest rates (euro dollars )are  in the final stages of the push higher in price and lower in rates. If your interested in trading these and seeing what I'm projecting email at (commoditykid@gmail.com) when you trade with me, I personally take no commission unless you win,  how do you get any better than that. 

Dow jones… bull trap on the new high today?

Here we sit at all time highs on the indices but today's push to new high has a very good chance of ending badly. All criteria have been met to satisfy the ending of this bull run in stocks. (This may be more than a pullback ). 

Bean bottom??????

1st chart is the weekly chart for Nov. beans and below it is the daily.  Both of these charts have demonstrated patterns that have preceeded several 4-12 dollar moves in soybeans. I'll be watching for a possible gap open higher on Monday 

It's my contention that the grain markets as well as many other commodities are in the process of bottoming out and will be heading higher in the years to come. 

Reversal in some softs today?????

My last post on sugar was off as the w2 is not finished on the downside.  I am however buying this breakdown here this morning on a .618 fib number on the weekly chart for a possible finished w2. and just short of .618 on the daily chart at 16.93. I would like to see a reversal here and a close back above the yesterday's high.

Cotton thread---- I am also buying cotton this morning under 68 basis dec.. Let's see if we reverse? 

A quick look at Dec cotton..... ready to move higher????

Dec cotton hit 6926 right on the nose this morning and looks to be ready for a rally higher into a wave 4 of this expanded flat correction for a possible wave 2. Price target for the wave 4 come in at 78.

good trading

CK

60 min chart of dec corn is this finally the wave 5 of 5 of 5.......????

Here is what i am seeing on a 60 min chart of dec corn internal wave count of this last leg down and it appears we are in a wave 5 of the last leg down. A possible bounce could be coming possibly before the report on friday from around the 4.00 area to 418 or so. I'm still waiting on this formation to complete and a downside target comes in at 380-395 for completion and then a reversal. possibly in a bearish report this Friday.

Still holding longs and I will be looking to add on a push down to these levels.

CK

has crude finished the D wave higher? is crude gettin ready to slide?

crude looks like we may have finished the D wave higher and ready to start the e wave decline to around the 86.50 level. the time frame is around the Oct time frame to finish this e wave. I'll be watching here as a short position sounds about right

Trade alert for sugar ....... 5 waves down complete?????

Sugar could have finished the flat formation for a wave 2 yesterday and I will be buying a break over the 18.91 area to add to my position and catch this possible wave 3 that if correct should push prices to a 1st target of 22.50 in a full wave 3......

good trading
CK

Who pulled out the rug… ???

Natural gas- natural gas has breached the 429.6 level which was the main count projecting prices to move higher in a w5 extention. With the breach we can conclude that wave 1 of  w3 has finished and now a possible shallow wave 2 in a zig zag. A clue of w3 of wave 3 will be a push over the 460 price.  A close over the 200 day mvg avg at 431 today may convince me to add here.

Corn-  opened lower this morning to my last target of 407.75 ( per last corn post and bounced… still holding longs as of now…

Sugar- ( will update with chart this afternoon.)

Apologize for the lack of charts this morning… will update individually this afternoon. 

Good trading…

Updates this weekend and a recap of…

Nat gas, sugar and corn…updates over the weekend so check back. 

Thanks for the emails… and happy 4th

Just wanted to day thank you for all the responses via email to receive my market commentary and updated counts. I really do enjoy doing this and if you ever need me to look at any markets or have suggestions please feel free to email me. 

Thnks again and happy 4th from orlando fla…

CK

Indices… are we finally topping?

Above is the chart for the Dow jones industrial avg hanging on the D wave completion line. About 400 points over to be exact.  I will be building a short position here as I believe the risk of being long is too great and a top could be put in any day now.  And if I'm correct the e wave is coming next. 

My guess is that this e wave impulse down will catch the majority off gaurd. price target comes in @17130

Good trading

feeder cattle updated count on a longer term chart

after a long time trying figure out where we are in the count by looking at a daily chart I figured i would go back and take a look at from way back to 74 and take a look. This picture becomes a bit more clearer and may shed some light on my marble head... It appears that we are in a wave major wave 3 that has a little more room to work higher has targets upward of 220.14-226.33. as major wave 2 was a flat Im expecting wave 4 to be a deep zig zag to the prior wave 4 of around 133 50 or so. until then I will be watching for these numbers. this also would coincide with the fats running up to my 163 target.

watching for this market to set up

Deep wave 2 for w2 of w5 in Sugar?

Sugar has now hit the .786 retrace for the possible deep wave 2. The target was 1776 and went through it by 5 ticks. It also coincides with the 200 day mvg avg that comes in at 17.79 on the oct contract.  We will see how we open this evening as I will be looking for a higher open this evening, and a possible start to the 3rd wave. 

I feel a reversal coming..... christmas corn

Corn had an exciting day after the report as it slid some 20 plus cents to hit my target of 425 and hold there for the close. I can now count 5 wave lower and a possible reversal in the making as there are only several scenarios for wave 5 and we can scrap two of them as of this post. The daily chart below will show the labeling and what I will be watching for.  I'm looking for the reversal though.We will see what comes about .

Is the US dollar set to slide to 75 possibly and lower?

I think this is very possible as I believe the C wave of  wave D in an ABCDE triangle is playing out.... below is the weekly chart showing the current A B and a possible start of the C wave lower. and if its correct we should be seeing a decline in the dollar to around the 75 level and possibly lower towards 68.

Here is also the monthly chart of the US dollar and you can see a perfect triangle forming! As you know I am bullish commodities and this is part of the reason.....!!!!

Here is the count shown on the monthly chart showing the trade setup and triangle forming. once complete we shouls see a complete collapse down to to a minimum first target of 55-56.

Nat gas 5 waves down of the c wave complete ?

Aug nat gas expanded flat for wave 2 of wave 5 is still in play as the targets for the c wave have hit at around the 440 level . I can also count 5 waves down as being complete on the daily chart. If this is the correct count wave 5 should begin this week. Watching for a gap higher open this evening.  

Weekend look at sugar…

Best case scenario—

we have completed 5 waves up on may 16 and wave 2 ended on June 13th at the prior wave 4 at 1747 as a shallow wave 2. A push back toward the high at 1891 and break of this sets up the wave 3 impulse. Trgt comes in at 2263 if this in fact is the start of the wave 3. 

I can count 1-2-3-4 waves higher from June 13th. Now I just need to see the 5th wave higher this week to complete w1 of the w3. Should be an eventful week!!  

#Holding longs