Natural gas is on Fire....... wheres the next stop....Lets go to the chart....

My first target for natural gas wave 3  is @ 5.68 if wave 3 is 1.618  of wave 1...  of course we could always extend.

Impulsive move down in the Indices

Dow futures blew out the contracting ending diagonal that I was looking for and evidently started the decline early ... next good support comes in at about 300pts lower from here @ 15608 on the daily chart. We really need to hold this level...... still in a wave 3 lower .

Sugar coma… or sugar high???

Ever since hitting my numbers @1518 on front month sugar we have been stuck in a sugar coma… I have a long position at 1607 on the october contract. 

Technically we have met the qualifications for 5 waves down being complete since the run down from the 20 cent price range and the commercials buyers look to have almost gone net positive on buy side. ( which is a plus) A nice 30 point jump to the upside would be nice to end the week.

Will cows keep on soaring? I'm looking for a breather…

 cattle trade is working out so far… we did however over shoot my price targets by about 150 points. Which makes me think It could very well be the finish of the wave 3 of the third wave higher. Now we need a wave 4… trgt still 138.50-139.50

Canadian dollar zig zag for a w2?

The Canadian dollar looks like we are possibly finishing up a zig zag flat for a wave 2. A price break above 104 on the march futures would be a first hint that wave 3 is setting up. It also helps that the commercials are getting close to extreme net long with prices moving lower.

Holy Cow what a rally in the last 30-40 min

Now i need a u turn in the cows...... filled at 142.00 on april contract on the short side....looking for a price fall to 138.50-139.00

Dow Futures..... Ending diagonal building?

Here's a quick picture of a daily Dow futures chart for march. If we can hold here on the Trend line support and make a new high then it appears we would have an ending diagonal that would reach as high as 16880-16900 before a big swift correction.... we will certainly find out sooner than later if this count is any good... 

5 wave pattern illustration in the hog market.

This is a five wave pattern in Lean hogs. (actually the fifth wave looks to have just started and should unfold in a five wave pattern as an impulsive rally. It is usually equal to the length of the first wave that started at the end of march and ended the start of June for wave 1. 

5th wave scenarios give you three possibilities and the first 2 scenarios that come into play are (wave 1 will be equal in length to wave 5,as described already.) or a truncation( not making it to the old wave 3 high and reversing  and closing under the prior wave 4 labeled in the Lean Hog Daily chart above. The third possibility would be the length of wave 1 thru wave 3 multiplied times .382 then .618 As wave 3 extended I'm not looking for this 3rd possibility to play out. (As a rule I refrain from taking a long position 4th waves). I'm expecting this 5th wave to end somewhere around the 96.77 level....this market also has a little pattern that repeats 8 outta 10 times in a certain time frame, but you'll have to drop me a note for that one. 

Target for April Live cattle price

1st obj is at the 141.95-142.38  level for April live cattle. A  possible end to this 5th wave.. ?

Good til cancelled order to sell premium @ 142.00 if we get there...otherwise I will be watching for 5 waves to the downside for a clue that a price top may be in.

Who is gonna eat steak at these prices?

The cattle market has been on a tear higher ever since may of last year and by my wave count an almost completed 5 wave move to the upside. after completion we should see a nice move to the downside.

Another indicator i use along with my count is the commitment of traders. Looks like the commercials are reaching an extreme short position......will be interesting to see if this indicator comes thru again.

Sugar market and the commercial traders.... are they telling us something????

Checking out the commitment of traders report on Friday. It seemed to show that the commercials have just moved to the positive side of the zero line and small traders have moved further onto the short side of the sugar market. usually I look for extremes of the commercials and small speculators for potential trend changes in the market to confirm my wave count. we don't have any extremes as of now but commercials becoming net buyers could be a sign that this market may turn in trend .Below is a chart showing the commercials getting in on the long side.

Sugar premium bought

As my numbers were hit on the front month sugar @ 15.18 to possibly finish the c leg of this zig zag for a wave 2. I bought 1607 on the oct contract. lets see where this takes us.  my stops are placed below 1578 on this trade

good trading
CK

Is one more high needed in hogs before we fall?

lean hogs look like we may need another high before we start down into June and July of this year.

Targets are 96.77 where wave 1 = to wave 5

where does the wheat go from here?????

 front month wheat weekly chart is showing what looks to be an expanded flat for a wave 2 in the wheat market. If this is the case and wave 3 is ready to take over then we could be looking at 11.50 wheat in the not to distant future..



Something Interesting about the commodity markets is all appear to be warning that a bull run in commodities may be just around the corner.

Orange Juice ....... Liquid gold? update

Orange juice still appears to be working on a wave 2 on the weekly chart that could extend as low as 115. I believe that the 97.10was the larger wave 2 low and if this is correct we should not see a price break under this level. Here is a weekly chart for your viewing pleasure.

 Price targets for OJ if this set up holds true and we see a break over 226.95 sets up the wave 3 higher to 359 n change.  

My disclosure: I have no idea where these markets may go and these are just my opinions and should be taken as Just opinions and not fact!!!!! futures trading involves a high level of risk.

Orange juice set to sky rocket in 2014 on crop damage??????

Normally I'm not a big fundamentalist but the charts and the fundamentals seem to be lining up rather nicely.

Longer term price target is the 350  for the wave three if .618 of wave 1.

Could Short term interest rate futures be topping out in the first quarter of this year?

The Euro Dollar interest rate futures are putting in a perfect 5 wave pattern to the upside and are currently working on the 5th wave to possibly extend to 9920-99.40 if wave 1 is equal to wave 5. This could very well be playing out as contracting ending diagonal.

Is sugar about to bottom?

march daily sugar with wave 1 being equal to wave 5 @ 15.63

• If wave 1 is equal in length to wave 5..... sugar should be bottoming within the next couple days as shown in the chart above. If this is the case we will need to see 5 waves to the upside and a break over 19.57 to confirm the E wave has taken hold.

Dow jones futures in a wave 2 flat? we shall see

hourly Dow futures in a wave 2 flat?

Sugar to bottom in feb march ?

Sugar has set up for a nice bull run in the next 3-4 yrs possibly back to the 51-66 cent range. we have put in a A B C and looks to be finishing up a D wave with the E wave higher to follow.