Friday, May 23, 2014

Dow futures… time to sell?




This morning I will be selling the Dow futures June contract 16540  the low side is  Target is 16170-16200. In a c wave to finish the zig zag. 


Bullish doji star on sugar …

Sugar managed to hold on to the 1733-34 area and close in a bullish doji star. 

(A doji morning star is a bullish reversal pattern )

Now what I would like to see is a gap higher open and close higher on tues. It's very possible this was a deep wave 2. 

Holding longs





Sugar must hold levels…

Sugar after a strong rally last week has been on slide and what I thought was a completed triangle has yet to complete… for the current count to invalidate we would need to push below the high of 16.82 which is still a ways off. Today's support comes in at 17.33 which could still be a wave 2 intraday but 1705 and more so 1707 needs to hold and reverse. 

Current count is still in play as a w4 triangle but a break of these levels would set up a move to the 16.50 area

Thursday, May 22, 2014

C leg of wave 4 flat… are we fi

Natural gas has hit my target of 437.0 this afternoon and slid to just under 435.50 as of this writing.  While it is possible to move back to the low around 429.3 we must not go/penetrate the 4286 price as this would negate the wave 4 flat formation scenario and take the extended 5th wave off the table. 

If this does happen to play out this way a wave 2 of wave 3 will be in the cards…


Dec wheat… 1st part of the correction complete?


Dec wheat looks to have completed 5 waves higher and I will be looking for a w2 in a zig zag formation .… 1st target comes in at 648.

 It also looks like the first leg of the possible zig zag lower is close to completing. Trgt to complete would be around the 670 price range. Tough to tell at this stage. This is what I would like to see play out.  a break of 686 3/4 would open the door to 670

No position as of yet

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Sugar intra day update… wave 2 intraday?



After a nice rally last week we see sugar slide and are currently trading at 1751-52 on July contract which is exactly .618 of the move up from 1705 to 1825. If this is in fact a wave 2 (intraday) of the 5th wave then a reversal back to the high should take place very soon setting up the wave 3 higher. 

Holding long positions and will be watching to see if we get the reversal to set up the wave 3


Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Dec corn… 1st target hit


Dec corn has hit the first target of 472…where wave A= wave C. 

Position taken (dec )buying premium 472.0. To start new position… next lower target comes in 466. 

Monday, May 19, 2014

Dec corn… w2 in progress ?

Dec corn looks to have completed wave 1 and now look to be working on a wave 2. Most likely in a zig zag or possibly in an expanded flat. Will watch how this plays out. 

Observation : all the grain markets look like they are putting in w2's. 

Nat gas… update


Nat gas is looking like the 4th wave  of the c leg down could be in progress. Now the question is do we truncate the 5th wave. It looks like there is a good chance of it happening, as I believe a 5th wave extension higher is coming soon.  

Friday, May 16, 2014

OJ targets hit…

OJ targets were hit this morning and I'm currently buying premium at 155.00 per sept contract. We will see where we go, I'm thinking up

A few markets that could be setting up

So in the past few weeks we have several markets that could be in the last stages of their decline. OJ nat gas and corn. 
First off dec corn is creeping up on my 1st target zone for wave 2 that comes in @ 466-472. 

OJ is also creeping up on a downside trgt of 154-155 per sept contract. Intraday what I'd like to see is w4 up and then w5 down to set up the buy at 154-155. 

And finally nat gas has completed 1-2-3-4 waves down and working on the 5th wave lower. 5 th waves are tough so I will be watching the intraday for 5 waves down to finish the last leg of the flat or we may end this final 5th wave in an ABC. A push back towards yesterday's low could very well get me to add to positions

Didn't have time to run charts , but I will be updating these markets frequently. 

Thursday, May 15, 2014

Wave 3 grinder in OJ ????




Orange juice looks like a nice grinding wave 3 and 1st targets come in around the 183-184. If this is in fact the case this will drive the bears crazy… 

Holding long positions

Dec corn wave 2 forming?

After playing around near the highs Dec corn looks like we are starting the C leg down of the w2. 1st Target comes in at 466 1/4. I will be waiting for this market to set up for the start of the w3 higher as I believe it's gonna be a good one. 

(If wave C is equal to wave A then my target moves up a tad to 472.00. )

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Facebook c wave starting soon?

Facebook looks to have completed the A and B waves and now a break below 54.66 should be followed by a drop to the 44-47.50 price range in a C wave to complete the 4th wave. I will be looking to take profits at this level on remaining $FB shorts. 



Sugar Rush… is the 5th wave underway?





The triangle looks to have finished with the false breakdown in an e wave then reversal. 1st target comes in @19.51 and that would break the prior wave 4 opening the door to 23-24. 

Monday, May 12, 2014

Nat gas…Wave 4 flat correction ?

Nat gas looks to be in a w4 flat…I'm looking for a possible target to come in around 325-330 if this count is correct I will be looking for a 5th wave extention higher to possibly start soon. 

Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Sugar trade.… will the E wave finish today??

Sugar still looks to be drawing out this wave 4 triangle with the E wave possibly ending yesterday as we broke thru the bottom trendline at 17.27 on the July contract. If this is a head fake to the downside (which ewaves will sometimes do)we should see a reverse and close back over that 17.27 level in the next few days. If not then prices cannot penetrate under 16.82. 



If we get this scenario then we most likely are looking at a w2 of the first wave. 

As of now the wave 4 is still in play…

Monday, May 5, 2014

Intermission

Will be taking a small break and do some turkey hunting… I'll be posting later on in the week.,as I'm still watching for the sugar market and natural gas to begin heading higher. Wave Counts pointing higher for both markets are still in play. 

Trade well

CK

Saturday, May 3, 2014

Is the cup finally completed on corn??

Corn looks to have completed wave 1 and now I will be looking for 5 waves lower for a wave A.  Then a wave B, followed by the final wave C down to a possible 1st target of 4.45 1/4. Let's see how we play out. 

Friday, May 2, 2014

Interest rate futures C wave to begin?

Interest rate futures are (per my last post ) and a possible bottom at or around  the 1st of June are moving in the right direction and interest rates are moving lower. Today's number may very well get this c leg impulse started so I believe it's not gonna be as good as some are projecting. 
As you can see a decisive break above 125 will be my first clue that the c wave is underway.