Trading is done… commodity happy hour.

Dec Corn :  after pushing thru my support numbers managed to close over my last support number of 452 as there is a great chance that a bottom of wave 2 has been seen. ( position holding longs) 

Soy oil : looks to have also run it's course today per my post this week and finished off with a nice rally today. 

Holding small position long

sugar had a miserable week but did manage  a possible shallow wave 2 in the July contract but managed to hold support on the daily chart at 1682. 

the weekly chart is showing a possible finished  ABC of a triangle. Needing the D wave and E (final wave) to complete. If this is the case I would like too see a rally toward 1810 in the week ahead. 

Holding longs…

Have a great weekend… if you have markets you would like me to take a look at please feel free to drop me a note.

CK

Sugar update … July now considered a w2

July sugar has breached the low of 16.82 and by rule wave 4's cannot move into the price area where wave 1 ended. Therefore what Im looking at now appears to be a wave 2.  

Long term sugar chart ...... If I have this correct its gonna be a fun ride.

As you can see from the chart above I can count what I believe to be a wave 1 and then what appears to be a  finished wave 2 that most likely ended at 14.72. we are however below the .786 support at around 17.91. A little something about wave 2's is that we can retrace the entire move up we just cannot violate where wave 1 began back in 5/7/2010 of 13.00. What I would like to see is a move back above that .786 level of 17.91 and have it hold as I believe we are in the very beginning stages of a wave 3 higher which if correct could begin at any time that could target as high as 52.06 if wave 3 is equal to 1.618 of wave 1. I will be watching this market closely as I Will be looking to Add to my positions in march 2015 contract and further out with some out of the money call options.

 A break back over the 20.16 mark and more importantly the 31.85 level which would be counted as the B wave of the zig zag will be our first clue that wave 3 has begun.

Remember if this is a third wave starting it will divide up into a 5 wave impulse pattern that looks to have started at a low of 14.72. Time will tell.

(Note : this is just my opinion on what I'm seeing and by no means is this a recommendation to buy or sell this market)

good trading
CK

Dec soybean oil bottoming out ?

On the daily chart it looks as if we are finishing a wave 2 zig zag or could possibly finish it any day now as we have hit a target where wave A will be equal in length to wave C. The next possible target to would be where wave C would be .618 of wave A. The only way that this count becomes invalidated is if we move just one tick below 37.72 on the daily chart.

Dec Soybean oil

small position taken 3853 basis Dec

Good trading

Dec corn update for june 2 2014

Dec corn has hit my first and second target and closing in on a (.786) of  452 and  a possible deep wave 2 that could possibly end today in a bullish candle morning star reversal pattern.
Below is the daily chart labeled waves that I am currently looking at and is my main count as of this writing.

 

Here is a quick pict and definition of a candle in a star position

Facebook update… B wave complete?

Facebook stock has moved to the 63-64 range in what appears to be an ABC "B "wave and it looks like the C wave lower is ready to begin any time now.

As my last few post on FB say my Price projection is for the C wave to end would be 44.50-47.50 

June Lean hogs putting in the deep wave 4 in a zig zag ?

Ever since we hit the extended wave 3 June lean hogs are putting in a 4th wave on a daily chart in a deep zig zag formation. I will be watching for 106-109 to hold.  wave A will be equal in length to wave C at 109.27.

Intraday set up for nat gas…

Wave 3 is setting up in nat gas intraday and a break over today's high of 4665 basis July targets as high as 503 , 504.  

Buying Christmas corn trade setup

- Here's the candle setup that happened yesterday in Christmas corn on the daily chart

Yesterday's close on dec corn was a positive in both wave counts and candle structure. We have pushed down far enough to qualify as a w2 to 466.  We will wait and see how we play out as I believe we are close to finishing this correction. 

Best case scenario :I would like to see the low from yesterday hold but it's not necessary as .786 support comes in at 452 1/4. 

Holding long from 472,466 and 465. 

$DJI… main and alternate counts… staying short!!!

Here is count #1 that I'm currently watching and it's in an ending diagonal trade that would call for one more high , possibly to the 16775-17000 before we turn lower toward where the triangle started and most likely much lower. 

The 2nd count is that we have seen the high already as we have 5 wave pattern lower from the high of 16735.50 and we are hanging around .786 level that qualifies as a completed wave 2. The only rule that would disqualify this trade would be a break above 16735.50 to a new high.

Both these counts are in play right now and I am holding short and looking to add to my position as both counts are pointing to a push lower to come soon.

Sugar update… wave 4 flat or w2?

Sugar opened this morning down and extended it's decline under some support of 1705 and 1707. I can now count 5 waves down from the high from 5/14 of 1828  as this is one of my fave set ups to the long side. I'm looking for a reversal to come and possibly coming today.

 This could be counted as a w4 flat and at completion usually preceeded by a w5 extention. I think we will see shortly.

Wave 2 scenario:

 The w4 is still counted as a w4 unless we move into the vicinity of 16.82. If this occurs then the 16.50 range and the advance from 1/28- 3-/3 will be counted as a completed w1. With a w2 underway. 

Current position still holding longs. 

Dow futures… time to sell?

This morning I will be selling the Dow futures June contract 16540  the low side is  Target is 16170-16200. In a c wave to finish the zig zag. 

Bullish doji star on sugar …

Sugar managed to hold on to the 1733-34 area and close in a bullish doji star. 

(A doji morning star is a bullish reversal pattern )

Now what I would like to see is a gap higher open and close higher on tues. It's very possible this was a deep wave 2. 

Holding longs

Sugar must hold levels…

Sugar after a strong rally last week has been on slide and what I thought was a completed triangle has yet to complete… for the current count to invalidate we would need to push below the high of 16.82 which is still a ways off. Today's support comes in at 17.33 which could still be a wave 2 intraday but 1705 and more so 1707 needs to hold and reverse. 

Current count is still in play as a w4 triangle but a break of these levels would set up a move to the 16.50 area

C leg of wave 4 flat… are we fi

Natural gas has hit my target of 437.0 this afternoon and slid to just under 435.50 as of this writing.  While it is possible to move back to the low around 429.3 we must not go/penetrate the 4286 price as this would negate the wave 4 flat formation scenario and take the extended 5th wave off the table. 

If this does happen to play out this way a wave 2 of wave 3 will be in the cards…

Dec wheat… 1st part of the correction complete?

Dec wheat looks to have completed 5 waves higher and I will be looking for a w2 in a zig zag formation .… 1st target comes in at 648.

 It also looks like the first leg of the possible zig zag lower is close to completing. Trgt to complete would be around the 670 price range. Tough to tell at this stage. This is what I would like to see play out.  a break of 686 3/4 would open the door to 670

No position as of yet

Sugar intra day update… wave 2 intraday?

After a nice rally last week we see sugar slide and are currently trading at 1751-52 on July contract which is exactly .618 of the move up from 1705 to 1825. If this is in fact a wave 2 (intraday) of the 5th wave then a reversal back to the high should take place very soon setting up the wave 3 higher. 

Holding long positions and will be watching to see if we get the reversal to set up the wave 3

Dec corn… 1st target hit

Dec corn has hit the first target of 472…where wave A= wave C. 

Position taken (dec )buying premium 472.0. To start new position… next lower target comes in 466. 

Dec corn… w2 in progress ?

Dec corn looks to have completed wave 1 and now look to be working on a wave 2. Most likely in a zig zag or possibly in an expanded flat. Will watch how this plays out. 

Observation : all the grain markets look like they are putting in w2's. 

Nat gas… update

Nat gas is looking like the 4th wave  of the c leg down could be in progress. Now the question is do we truncate the 5th wave. It looks like there is a good chance of it happening, as I believe a 5th wave extension higher is coming soon.