Nat gas… extended w5 target

Nat gas took out the B wave at 463.5 on the daily chart and looks like the extended wave 5 is on the way… target comes in at 6.29. 

Dec corn update. Painful slide for me Extended wave 3? lets look at a chart

looking more and more like the up move that we saw from the beginning of jan was in fact a wave 4 of the Longer term expanded flat and we are now getting the 5th and final wave down. As labeled in the chart above we had a wave 1 a wave 2 and wave 3 looks to be unfolding as an extended wave 3 that could push as low as 436.0.  wave 4 should unfold as a complex wave( flat or a triangle   and there is a good chance that we may truncate the 5th lower. I am however still holding long from the low 470's 466 and 452 as this is my current count as of now.

CK  

Nat gas… update

Appears wave 1 of 5 has concluded and we are getting an ABC zig zag for wave 2 of 5.... Wave A from yesterday was 13 cents in length and wave C today is almost to that length as we are down 11 cents. Trgt is in the 4.50 range. 

Trade setup for aug fats…

Aug cattle set up yesterday and last night and I am currently short this mrkt @ 143.00 . Normally not my fav setup but we have hit my extended w3 trgt and I will be looking for a deep corrective wave 4. 

Aug Fats..... completed 5th wave or complex wave 4????

 The cattle market has definitely been on a tear lately but could a correction be coming???
Aug fats look like they are  headed for a correction to a possible low of around the 135-136 area.  As my first target was hit on Friday of 141.65 and 142.00  I'm thinking a correction is coming.

CK

Orange juice update

orange juice is putting in the grinding wave 3 higher on the daily chart and is looking good so far as this count is looking better and better. 1st Target is 182.30 as I am still holding long. As I believe that this market will move much higher over the next few years.

 Good trading
CK

Lumber wave 5 completed?????

Lumber updated count 

Looks as if July Lumber has completed or close to completing the 5th wave down of the C leg as a clear 5 wave pattern is seen. 

On the weekly chart you can see that a push down to 290 would be very possible where wave A would equal wave C  if this is playing out to be a wave 4 triangle.  ( you can see this better on the weekly chart below )   the 200 day moving avg on the weekly chart comes in at 296 n change .  my  targets if a wave 4  triangle would be around the 365 area in a D wave. My only requirements for this trade is we must not move into the price range of 270.20 

Weekly Lumber chart

Trading is done… commodity happy hour.

Dec Corn :  after pushing thru my support numbers managed to close over my last support number of 452 as there is a great chance that a bottom of wave 2 has been seen. ( position holding longs) 

Soy oil : looks to have also run it's course today per my post this week and finished off with a nice rally today. 

Holding small position long

sugar had a miserable week but did manage  a possible shallow wave 2 in the July contract but managed to hold support on the daily chart at 1682. 

the weekly chart is showing a possible finished  ABC of a triangle. Needing the D wave and E (final wave) to complete. If this is the case I would like too see a rally toward 1810 in the week ahead. 

Holding longs…

Have a great weekend… if you have markets you would like me to take a look at please feel free to drop me a note.

CK

Sugar update … July now considered a w2

July sugar has breached the low of 16.82 and by rule wave 4's cannot move into the price area where wave 1 ended. Therefore what Im looking at now appears to be a wave 2.  

Long term sugar chart ...... If I have this correct its gonna be a fun ride.

As you can see from the chart above I can count what I believe to be a wave 1 and then what appears to be a  finished wave 2 that most likely ended at 14.72. we are however below the .786 support at around 17.91. A little something about wave 2's is that we can retrace the entire move up we just cannot violate where wave 1 began back in 5/7/2010 of 13.00. What I would like to see is a move back above that .786 level of 17.91 and have it hold as I believe we are in the very beginning stages of a wave 3 higher which if correct could begin at any time that could target as high as 52.06 if wave 3 is equal to 1.618 of wave 1. I will be watching this market closely as I Will be looking to Add to my positions in march 2015 contract and further out with some out of the money call options.

 A break back over the 20.16 mark and more importantly the 31.85 level which would be counted as the B wave of the zig zag will be our first clue that wave 3 has begun.

Remember if this is a third wave starting it will divide up into a 5 wave impulse pattern that looks to have started at a low of 14.72. Time will tell.

(Note : this is just my opinion on what I'm seeing and by no means is this a recommendation to buy or sell this market)

good trading
CK

Dec soybean oil bottoming out ?

On the daily chart it looks as if we are finishing a wave 2 zig zag or could possibly finish it any day now as we have hit a target where wave A will be equal in length to wave C. The next possible target to would be where wave C would be .618 of wave A. The only way that this count becomes invalidated is if we move just one tick below 37.72 on the daily chart.

Dec Soybean oil

small position taken 3853 basis Dec

Good trading

Dec corn update for june 2 2014

Dec corn has hit my first and second target and closing in on a (.786) of  452 and  a possible deep wave 2 that could possibly end today in a bullish candle morning star reversal pattern.
Below is the daily chart labeled waves that I am currently looking at and is my main count as of this writing.

 

Here is a quick pict and definition of a candle in a star position

Facebook update… B wave complete?

Facebook stock has moved to the 63-64 range in what appears to be an ABC "B "wave and it looks like the C wave lower is ready to begin any time now.

As my last few post on FB say my Price projection is for the C wave to end would be 44.50-47.50 

June Lean hogs putting in the deep wave 4 in a zig zag ?

Ever since we hit the extended wave 3 June lean hogs are putting in a 4th wave on a daily chart in a deep zig zag formation. I will be watching for 106-109 to hold.  wave A will be equal in length to wave C at 109.27.

Intraday set up for nat gas…

Wave 3 is setting up in nat gas intraday and a break over today's high of 4665 basis July targets as high as 503 , 504.  

Buying Christmas corn trade setup

- Here's the candle setup that happened yesterday in Christmas corn on the daily chart

Yesterday's close on dec corn was a positive in both wave counts and candle structure. We have pushed down far enough to qualify as a w2 to 466.  We will wait and see how we play out as I believe we are close to finishing this correction. 

Best case scenario :I would like to see the low from yesterday hold but it's not necessary as .786 support comes in at 452 1/4. 

Holding long from 472,466 and 465. 

$DJI… main and alternate counts… staying short!!!

Here is count #1 that I'm currently watching and it's in an ending diagonal trade that would call for one more high , possibly to the 16775-17000 before we turn lower toward where the triangle started and most likely much lower. 

The 2nd count is that we have seen the high already as we have 5 wave pattern lower from the high of 16735.50 and we are hanging around .786 level that qualifies as a completed wave 2. The only rule that would disqualify this trade would be a break above 16735.50 to a new high.

Both these counts are in play right now and I am holding short and looking to add to my position as both counts are pointing to a push lower to come soon.

Sugar update… wave 4 flat or w2?

Sugar opened this morning down and extended it's decline under some support of 1705 and 1707. I can now count 5 waves down from the high from 5/14 of 1828  as this is one of my fave set ups to the long side. I'm looking for a reversal to come and possibly coming today.

 This could be counted as a w4 flat and at completion usually preceeded by a w5 extention. I think we will see shortly.

Wave 2 scenario:

 The w4 is still counted as a w4 unless we move into the vicinity of 16.82. If this occurs then the 16.50 range and the advance from 1/28- 3-/3 will be counted as a completed w1. With a w2 underway. 

Current position still holding longs. 

Dow futures… time to sell?

This morning I will be selling the Dow futures June contract 16540  the low side is  Target is 16170-16200. In a c wave to finish the zig zag. 

Bullish doji star on sugar …

Sugar managed to hold on to the 1733-34 area and close in a bullish doji star. 

(A doji morning star is a bullish reversal pattern )

Now what I would like to see is a gap higher open and close higher on tues. It's very possible this was a deep wave 2. 

Holding longs