dec corn update are we looking at the 4th wave up of the 5th wave?

Looking at Dec corn on the daily chart below with this last push down looks impulsive and possible finished just above my 336 call to finish a w3 of the 5th wave and a  Wave 4 higher now to target 466-475 maybe brewing.... as wave 2 was a simple deep zig zag.  Ill be watching for wave 4 to be a flat or some kind of shallow triangle correction. 

my second thought is that this a wave 2 but it appears to impulsive with no overlapping waves. holding long for now. Any questions or markets you would like me to take a look at please feel free to ask. commoditykid@gmail.com

Nat gas update… w2 intraday?

Nat gas appears to be putting in a double zig zag intraday for a possible wave 2. 455 will be where wave a=wave c .  If that does happen the sept trade stop may get taken out where we put it in 8 cents lower from my fill yesterday. Hopefully c wave falls short. 

The big corn bottom… are we there yet?

Haven't posted on corn in a bit so here it is.

Looks as if corn could turn higher in the coming weeks and trade into a w4 and a possible truncated w5 down. Either way I believe a significant bottom maybe close at hand after almost hitting my 336.0 number on 6/17 as I stated in my last post. Updated market count on dec and march corn are available via email. 

Positions: Still holding long in dec and most likely will add in mrch.

Good trading

One on one training…

Interested in one on one training? I'll show you how it works. Just email me and We can get started. Commoditykid@gmail.com

Low risk trade setup…

2 markets set up for low risk trade.  Here's one… currently order to buy mini sept nat gas @ 467. See if we get hit. (Risk is 8 cents if filled). 

sept coffee wave 1 complete and zig zagging in wave 2?

Sept coffee is looking like we are putting in the last leg of deep zig zag for a wave 2 and targets come in at (158.20 = .618)  and 163 n change( A=C). Wave 2's usually retrace .618 of wave 1 there are however exceptions as they can retrace the entire move of wave 1. price must not break the low of where wave 1 started. While I don't think this is going to be the case markets usually do what you don't think they will do and coffee is notorious for that! I will be watching this market to try and time an entry. If this is a wave 2 and (I hope its a deep wave 2 ) next will be an exciting wave 3.
 
Good trading
CK

Aug feeders top in place ?

Feeders have extended the wave 3 to 3.00 of the distance traveled from wave 1   And the target came in at 210.35. I will be watching for a top to be in here and a wave 4 to begin. 

Aug fats..... will they ever stop?

the cattle market has been on an unbelievable tear but I'm still looking for this wave 3 to terminate and retrace into a wave 4 which could target as low as 136. As  you can see on the daily chart below, a throw over of the trend line to the upside may have finished this markets momentum.as I can count 5 waves higher with wave 1 of the 3rd wave extending.( I'll be watching for 5 waves down intra day on this market and a test of that broken uptrend line at 14550.

 

Facebook… rdy to slip n fall

Facebook looks like we are set to finally see this C wave down to the prior wave 4 of 47-48 and possibly lower to the 45 level. Count still remains in tact from the last update and I'm holding short. 

Grain update.. has wave 2 ended ?

DEC Wheat

The grain market ( corn and wheat) after a slide last week could have bottomed in a wave 2 on Friday. As you can see the chart labeled below on Dec wheat ,we have touched the .786 support level to finish the possible wave 2. Now i will be watching for an Intra day 5 wave move to higher prices and a possible break of  659/3/4 as my first clue that wave 3 may be underway. This is my main count as of now. Invalidation would be a push below 577 3/4 on the daily chart. we will see what happens here.

Small position long from 625 this morning basis dec.

Nat gas… extended w5 target

Nat gas took out the B wave at 463.5 on the daily chart and looks like the extended wave 5 is on the way… target comes in at 6.29. 

Dec corn update. Painful slide for me Extended wave 3? lets look at a chart

looking more and more like the up move that we saw from the beginning of jan was in fact a wave 4 of the Longer term expanded flat and we are now getting the 5th and final wave down. As labeled in the chart above we had a wave 1 a wave 2 and wave 3 looks to be unfolding as an extended wave 3 that could push as low as 436.0.  wave 4 should unfold as a complex wave( flat or a triangle   and there is a good chance that we may truncate the 5th lower. I am however still holding long from the low 470's 466 and 452 as this is my current count as of now.

CK  

Nat gas… update

Appears wave 1 of 5 has concluded and we are getting an ABC zig zag for wave 2 of 5.... Wave A from yesterday was 13 cents in length and wave C today is almost to that length as we are down 11 cents. Trgt is in the 4.50 range. 

Trade setup for aug fats…

Aug cattle set up yesterday and last night and I am currently short this mrkt @ 143.00 . Normally not my fav setup but we have hit my extended w3 trgt and I will be looking for a deep corrective wave 4. 

Aug Fats..... completed 5th wave or complex wave 4????

 The cattle market has definitely been on a tear lately but could a correction be coming???
Aug fats look like they are  headed for a correction to a possible low of around the 135-136 area.  As my first target was hit on Friday of 141.65 and 142.00  I'm thinking a correction is coming.

CK

Orange juice update

orange juice is putting in the grinding wave 3 higher on the daily chart and is looking good so far as this count is looking better and better. 1st Target is 182.30 as I am still holding long. As I believe that this market will move much higher over the next few years.

 Good trading
CK

Lumber wave 5 completed?????

Lumber updated count 

Looks as if July Lumber has completed or close to completing the 5th wave down of the C leg as a clear 5 wave pattern is seen. 

On the weekly chart you can see that a push down to 290 would be very possible where wave A would equal wave C  if this is playing out to be a wave 4 triangle.  ( you can see this better on the weekly chart below )   the 200 day moving avg on the weekly chart comes in at 296 n change .  my  targets if a wave 4  triangle would be around the 365 area in a D wave. My only requirements for this trade is we must not move into the price range of 270.20 

Weekly Lumber chart

Trading is done… commodity happy hour.

Dec Corn :  after pushing thru my support numbers managed to close over my last support number of 452 as there is a great chance that a bottom of wave 2 has been seen. ( position holding longs) 

Soy oil : looks to have also run it's course today per my post this week and finished off with a nice rally today. 

Holding small position long

sugar had a miserable week but did manage  a possible shallow wave 2 in the July contract but managed to hold support on the daily chart at 1682. 

the weekly chart is showing a possible finished  ABC of a triangle. Needing the D wave and E (final wave) to complete. If this is the case I would like too see a rally toward 1810 in the week ahead. 

Holding longs…

Have a great weekend… if you have markets you would like me to take a look at please feel free to drop me a note.

CK

Sugar update … July now considered a w2

July sugar has breached the low of 16.82 and by rule wave 4's cannot move into the price area where wave 1 ended. Therefore what Im looking at now appears to be a wave 2.  

Long term sugar chart ...... If I have this correct its gonna be a fun ride.

As you can see from the chart above I can count what I believe to be a wave 1 and then what appears to be a  finished wave 2 that most likely ended at 14.72. we are however below the .786 support at around 17.91. A little something about wave 2's is that we can retrace the entire move up we just cannot violate where wave 1 began back in 5/7/2010 of 13.00. What I would like to see is a move back above that .786 level of 17.91 and have it hold as I believe we are in the very beginning stages of a wave 3 higher which if correct could begin at any time that could target as high as 52.06 if wave 3 is equal to 1.618 of wave 1. I will be watching this market closely as I Will be looking to Add to my positions in march 2015 contract and further out with some out of the money call options.

 A break back over the 20.16 mark and more importantly the 31.85 level which would be counted as the B wave of the zig zag will be our first clue that wave 3 has begun.

Remember if this is a third wave starting it will divide up into a 5 wave impulse pattern that looks to have started at a low of 14.72. Time will tell.

(Note : this is just my opinion on what I'm seeing and by no means is this a recommendation to buy or sell this market)

good trading
CK