Bean bottom??????

1st chart is the weekly chart for Nov. beans and below it is the daily.  Both of these charts have demonstrated patterns that have preceeded several 4-12 dollar moves in soybeans. I'll be watching for a possible gap open higher on Monday 

It's my contention that the grain markets as well as many other commodities are in the process of bottoming out and will be heading higher in the years to come. 

Reversal in some softs today?????

My last post on sugar was off as the w2 is not finished on the downside.  I am however buying this breakdown here this morning on a .618 fib number on the weekly chart for a possible finished w2. and just short of .618 on the daily chart at 16.93. I would like to see a reversal here and a close back above the yesterday's high.

Cotton thread---- I am also buying cotton this morning under 68 basis dec.. Let's see if we reverse? 

A quick look at Dec cotton..... ready to move higher????

Dec cotton hit 6926 right on the nose this morning and looks to be ready for a rally higher into a wave 4 of this expanded flat correction for a possible wave 2. Price target for the wave 4 come in at 78.

good trading

CK

60 min chart of dec corn is this finally the wave 5 of 5 of 5.......????

Here is what i am seeing on a 60 min chart of dec corn internal wave count of this last leg down and it appears we are in a wave 5 of the last leg down. A possible bounce could be coming possibly before the report on friday from around the 4.00 area to 418 or so. I'm still waiting on this formation to complete and a downside target comes in at 380-395 for completion and then a reversal. possibly in a bearish report this Friday.

Still holding longs and I will be looking to add on a push down to these levels.

CK

has crude finished the D wave higher? is crude gettin ready to slide?

crude looks like we may have finished the D wave higher and ready to start the e wave decline to around the 86.50 level. the time frame is around the Oct time frame to finish this e wave. I'll be watching here as a short position sounds about right

Trade alert for sugar ....... 5 waves down complete?????

Sugar could have finished the flat formation for a wave 2 yesterday and I will be buying a break over the 18.91 area to add to my position and catch this possible wave 3 that if correct should push prices to a 1st target of 22.50 in a full wave 3......

good trading
CK

Who pulled out the rug… ???

Natural gas- natural gas has breached the 429.6 level which was the main count projecting prices to move higher in a w5 extention. With the breach we can conclude that wave 1 of  w3 has finished and now a possible shallow wave 2 in a zig zag. A clue of w3 of wave 3 will be a push over the 460 price.  A close over the 200 day mvg avg at 431 today may convince me to add here.

Corn-  opened lower this morning to my last target of 407.75 ( per last corn post and bounced… still holding longs as of now…

Sugar- ( will update with chart this afternoon.)

Apologize for the lack of charts this morning… will update individually this afternoon. 

Good trading…

Updates this weekend and a recap of…

Nat gas, sugar and corn…updates over the weekend so check back. 

Thanks for the emails… and happy 4th

Just wanted to day thank you for all the responses via email to receive my market commentary and updated counts. I really do enjoy doing this and if you ever need me to look at any markets or have suggestions please feel free to email me. 

Thnks again and happy 4th from orlando fla…

CK

Indices… are we finally topping?

Above is the chart for the Dow jones industrial avg hanging on the D wave completion line. About 400 points over to be exact.  I will be building a short position here as I believe the risk of being long is too great and a top could be put in any day now.  And if I'm correct the e wave is coming next. 

My guess is that this e wave impulse down will catch the majority off gaurd. price target comes in @17130

Good trading

feeder cattle updated count on a longer term chart

after a long time trying figure out where we are in the count by looking at a daily chart I figured i would go back and take a look at from way back to 74 and take a look. This picture becomes a bit more clearer and may shed some light on my marble head... It appears that we are in a wave major wave 3 that has a little more room to work higher has targets upward of 220.14-226.33. as major wave 2 was a flat Im expecting wave 4 to be a deep zig zag to the prior wave 4 of around 133 50 or so. until then I will be watching for these numbers. this also would coincide with the fats running up to my 163 target.

watching for this market to set up

Deep wave 2 for w2 of w5 in Sugar?

Sugar has now hit the .786 retrace for the possible deep wave 2. The target was 1776 and went through it by 5 ticks. It also coincides with the 200 day mvg avg that comes in at 17.79 on the oct contract.  We will see how we open this evening as I will be looking for a higher open this evening, and a possible start to the 3rd wave. 

I feel a reversal coming..... christmas corn

Corn had an exciting day after the report as it slid some 20 plus cents to hit my target of 425 and hold there for the close. I can now count 5 wave lower and a possible reversal in the making as there are only several scenarios for wave 5 and we can scrap two of them as of this post. The daily chart below will show the labeling and what I will be watching for.  I'm looking for the reversal though.We will see what comes about .

Is the US dollar set to slide to 75 possibly and lower?

I think this is very possible as I believe the C wave of  wave D in an ABCDE triangle is playing out.... below is the weekly chart showing the current A B and a possible start of the C wave lower. and if its correct we should be seeing a decline in the dollar to around the 75 level and possibly lower towards 68.

Here is also the monthly chart of the US dollar and you can see a perfect triangle forming! As you know I am bullish commodities and this is part of the reason.....!!!!

Here is the count shown on the monthly chart showing the trade setup and triangle forming. once complete we shouls see a complete collapse down to to a minimum first target of 55-56.

Nat gas 5 waves down of the c wave complete ?

Aug nat gas expanded flat for wave 2 of wave 5 is still in play as the targets for the c wave have hit at around the 440 level . I can also count 5 waves down as being complete on the daily chart. If this is the correct count wave 5 should begin this week. Watching for a gap higher open this evening.  

Weekend look at sugar…

Best case scenario—

we have completed 5 waves up on may 16 and wave 2 ended on June 13th at the prior wave 4 at 1747 as a shallow wave 2. A push back toward the high at 1891 and break of this sets up the wave 3 impulse. Trgt comes in at 2263 if this in fact is the start of the wave 3. 

I can count 1-2-3-4 waves higher from June 13th. Now I just need to see the 5th wave higher this week to complete w1 of the w3. Should be an eventful week!!  

#Holding longs

Aug fats ...... short positions covered and updated count.... its so clear so what was i looking at????

Aug live cattle are currently in the last leg of the 5th wave extended  move higher and I have been miserably short this market for the last month or two and have been dead wrong. As of now the count that makes the most sense is the one that I have listed above. This count shows wave 1 a wave 2, a small impulse for wave 3 higher a deep 4th wave and a 5th wave that  is currently underway. My new target for this final wave to complete is somewhere around the 16360 level. I'm happy to say I'm out of this market and will be watching for this count to complete. Sometimes ya gotta just admit when your wrong. 

dec wheat deep wave 2 coming to an end?

Dec wheat looks like we are finishing up a possible wave 2 that could terminate at any time here and start moving higher. The lowest target I have is around the 485 and if this level comes into play I will be very interested in trading this market from the long side.

check out whats coming.....

I will be starting a subscription service soon for traders that want certain groups of commodities. These groups will be the grains : (corn wheat, beans ). The meats: ( lean hogs ,fats and feeders) and Softs: ( sugar coffee cotton cocoa and OJ. )

 Pricing will be a annual rate and start as low as .50 cents a day per group and you will be only paying for actual days the market is open for trading, which equates to ($125.50 for the year ).More info to come ....

In the mean time if you would like to see what you will be getting with the service and a 2 week trial please email at commoditykid@gmail.com and you will start receiving the updates daily.

a look at the softs commodities mainly sugar and oj ( update)

Orange juice sept contract has traded down to a possible wave 2 level on a flush out of yesterday and today. I will be watching here as we are deep enough for this move to be a wave 2 flat nearly completed with this move down. target comes in at 150.90 and  146.36....

sugar - has tested the .382 level in a wave 4 and its possible we may see a push towards the 1814 basis july in a 5th wave of wave 1. a break above 18.28 and 18.57 sets up the wave 3 to my first target of 22.05.