Cotton dec update and questions answered

Cotton after sliding thru my last support at 63.97 by another 2 full points to just above 62 is looking like this w3 could have concluded. (If you would like my updates for when I get in and when I get out then you will have to email and I can inform you when I take a trade on and off) . Unfortunately I don't know where the bottom may be! I just trade my signals.… That being said I am holding long at just under 64.00. 

The stock market and the dollar will dictate the Feds move!

Its of my opinion and my opinion only that the fed will not only keep the balance sheet the way it is but start adding as the Dow starts it's decent. This will obviously put pressure on the dollar and move it lower. When this move by the fed fails to halt the market decline this is when the about face will occur and interest rates will be forced higher to try to protect the US dollar from further decline. 

This is how I see it playing out in my head . 

British pound to 180?????

British pound appears to be in a wave  3 that could extend up to 180+ Despite all the talk of a strong US dollar. We are however very close to the uptrend line channel that wave 3's normally tend to trade. Trgts come in on the downside @ 16866-16878.  

Position currently long at 16884

Dec cotton trade…

Dec cotton has pushed to the lowest target in a w3 so If this is a reg wave 3 of 1.618 we should see a deep w4 start soon.  Premium bought 63.95 dec

Euro currency low risk trade

The euro is currently at a possible bottom here at 13375 and in my opinion a small risk high reward scenario. Premium bought 13375…

Sugar update…

Sugar still looks to be in the last and final leg down in a c wave of wave 2. Commonly i find that wave 2's especially in commodities will often retrace .786 of w1 and sometimes further. My targets come in from 16.33-16.46 for and end to this w2. 

Unhappy with your current broker????want 2 see a window into how I trade… I will be more than happy to work for you in refining your trading techniques. It will be my pleasure. 

Email: Commoditykid@gmail.com 

Euro currency…bounce coming

Sept euro currency looks to be ready to bounce here possibly back to the 13560. Let's see if we do. 

Weekend look at nat gas

Sept daily nat gas…

Natural gas is holding a .786 at around the 3.77-3.74 area for a possible deep wave 2 of major wave 3.  This flat count would be invalidated on a break below the low made back in nov 2013. As long as we hold and do not break this level wave two could finish at any time… 

Dec cotton… bottoming at 68.00-64.00? ?

After a small bounce from just under 68 back to 69 in dec cotton it appears that the downside target of 64 and an end to this decline comes in play… setting up as we could turn quickly. 

Intra day corn dec

The move up this morning was corrective and 5 waves down intraday can count as complete. Lower trgt comes in at 363 1/2. Order to Buy premium 364.0

Facebook wave B of the expanded flat finishing today?

Looks like we are in 1 of two scenarios? 1st scenario being that the a wave completed at 54 n change and the B wave of the expanded flat wave 4 will finish today with a reversal lower and a C wave should be expected that moves prices well below 54. This is my first and main count, as wave 2 was a simple zig zag. 

2nd scenario would be that we have completed the 4th wave and the wave five could finish shortly. 

Let's see that reversal today

Will this be the headline soon?

As I watch the morning news on cnbc  I hear many different arguments about how the economy getting better as people are moving back to work. As a technical trader I try very hard to concentrate on what is happening on the charts and not so much what people are saying. I must say, again that This chart pattern on the Dow looks to be complete.  I'm fully expecting the E wave lower of this triangle to start at any time now. This move will most likely be a sharp sell off and catch many of these hedge fund traders on the wrong side of the market. We will see how we play out! 

Natural gas…wave 3 finished and rally?

: We are currently still holding around the .786 of the move up from last Nov.  This last push down does look impulsive and I can count 1,2 and a 3 that had a target of 3.81 and 3.74 on the daily chart. If this is the case we should see a possible rally in a 4th wave that should be deep and take us back to the 395-408.  Maybe the rally starts today? 

Nov beans… morning commentary

Nov beans slide continued on mon and tues but like corn the chart reads somewhat different. I can now count 5 waves down as almost being complete as a push down to the 1040  may still possibly materialize. That being said this leg down as shown in the chart above is looking complete and the bull run is ready to resume. All the signs are pointing to much higher prices in the next couple years…

Dec corn… here we go

Dec corn after sliding on Monday and Tues surpassing my targets of 380 on the downside by 10-15 cents. Is not uncommon especially when you get a finishing 5th wave of what I am counting as an expanded flat that started back on May 30th 2011. This market has gone far enough to count as complete and I am adding to my position as I believe the start of a major uptrend is setting up. No doubt this move could catch traders off guard as this move is pricing in a monster crop in my opinion.

nat gas on the .786. will we reverse in a wave 3?

natural gas for aug delivery is currently trading right at the .786 support for a possible end to wave 2. A push back to the 4.89 sets up the wave 3 of wave 3.. to a target of 5.94

Dec corn .... update

Dec corn again even with the gap down lower this morning looks as if wave 3 could terminate at any time now with wave 4 starting to the upside to target the 440-460 price range in a shallow complex pattern possibly in some kind of triangle.  Then all is left is a wave 5 down that can do one of 3 things.

will we get to 1145 in beans ????

 daily November Beans :

I am watching for a push higher in a c leg of an simple zig zag wave 4 that should target as high as 1145 if we get a full wave 4. then all we need is a 5th wave down to complete the formation.

for a more in depth commentary email commoditykid@gmail.com

good trading
CK.

Dec wheat intraday

Here is an intraday chart of dec wheat and it looks as if we are putting in a w2 that could be close to finishing up this morning. We are approaching some support at 566 .  If this is a w2 I'll be watching for a break out over 585 in a wave 3 to trgt of 613-616 if we get a full wave 3. We will see… I will update again today....

Wave 3 lower setup for the $DJI…

Intraday picture of the $DJIA… there is still plenty of time to start this wave 3 lower but a break of the low today sets this trade lower and if it is a w3 then we should target 16873 if a full wave 3.