Dow must hold levels…or else!!!

A break of the b wave @ 16518 would not be good as it sets up the 3rd wave lower to around 15010 if wave 3 is just 1.618 of wave 1… on the intra day chart.

The weekly Dow jones has retested the break down around the 16730-16850. Imm my opinion the top has been put in and the e wave lower has begun…

October crude wave 2 almost at an end?

Oct crude on the daily chart is creeping up on the first target of the possible wave 2 end at 94.90.  Watching

Downside target hit on nov soybeans!

The downside target has been hit this morning on nov beans at 1040… and my buy orders were activated…. Onward and upward!!!! 

Softs and some currency.

-Sugar has been trying to break higher but has been unable to do so. We are still in the possible deep wave 2… holding long positions in mrch and may. 

- dec cotton has been grinding higher as of late with a possible start of the wave 4 higher towards 67-69 in a deep correction. Holding long from just under 64.00

- British pound : the pound is now trading at a possible wave 4 level so will be watching this level to hold.

- Euro currency : looks to be in a w4 triangle with the E wave higher still to be completed. With a push lower to possibly 13320. Currently flat as of this writing

Updates… sugar, cotton, corn euro and cable

I will be updating these markets this evening

Thnx

CK

Euro… Mrng update

The euro looks as if we are currently in a w4 flat of wave C… this should be a more complex pattern possibly in the form of a triangle or a flat that should target the 13475-13520 level on the upside. 

Sugar update… did wave 2 complete?

Sugar after completing 5 waves higher from the start of jan looks very much like it has possibly completed a nice shallow double zig zag for a wave 2. A push back to the high of 18.50 sets up the wave 3 and targets 2211 if we get a full wave 3.  This is a risk reward here to my liking and I will be adding to my position in the mrch and May time frame. 

GBP bounce coming?

The British pound is coming up on some support that comes in at 16785 and I'm expecting a bounce back to the 169-170 price target.  

dec corn quick update

above weekly corn

 

Here are two corn charts.The one above is a weekly chart and the one below is a daily. As you can see we are in the final stages of the 5th wave down in what appears to be an expanded flat for a wave 2 as seen on the weekly chart. The question is where will this 5th wave end. it very well could end somewhere in the vicinity of 3.00but do we get a bounce before then. my feeling is yes but we will get a possible wave 4 of the fifth wave and it should correct deep most likely back to around the 4.00 again we will have to wait and see.

interesting to see that both commercials and large specs are long this market. The only ones that are short? u guessed it small specs

sugar update..... deep zig zag for wave 2????

Sugar still is grinding lower as of this morning in a possible wave 2 deep double zig zag.... for this count to remain we will need to see the low that was made on this contract (oct) hold at 15.72 . If we do infact hold then a push back towards the high will set up the wave 3 to the 22-23 mark. but first Lets see if we can get an up day. 

There is a pattern that is repeating with commercials and large traders.... can you see it ?  the small trader is also reaching an extremely short position which again makes me think that the next big move higher is getting ready to play out.

we will see

euro trade update.... still some room on the upside?

As you can see we are pushing lower in the $EC and my buy is still in effect as the commercials are showing a extreme net long position and large traders are showing a extreme net short. what concerns me at this time are the small traders and are at an extreme net short also.  i'm looking for a break back to the upside in the coming days. this actually works well with the current count as i have a triangle forming. The d wave could have possibly completed just over 139 or still has some room back to the upside. a break back over 13515-20 and hold will be our first clue this d wave is not quite over yet.


Current position long from 13375-13360  

Getting your mind ready for trading…let me show you

In trading these markets ,all traders

Need to be able to see the trade and 

Visualize how it should play out.

Everything you want to see happen.

Simply visualizing and picturing ur plan

the way you want it to unfold has a

wonderful effect, and it helps with your

Internal confidence when trading.

The exercises I use are easily learned/applied having a lasting effect on the 

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Enhancing the trading experience 

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CK

Cotton dec update and questions answered

Cotton after sliding thru my last support at 63.97 by another 2 full points to just above 62 is looking like this w3 could have concluded. (If you would like my updates for when I get in and when I get out then you will have to email and I can inform you when I take a trade on and off) . Unfortunately I don't know where the bottom may be! I just trade my signals.… That being said I am holding long at just under 64.00. 

The stock market and the dollar will dictate the Feds move!

Its of my opinion and my opinion only that the fed will not only keep the balance sheet the way it is but start adding as the Dow starts it's decent. This will obviously put pressure on the dollar and move it lower. When this move by the fed fails to halt the market decline this is when the about face will occur and interest rates will be forced higher to try to protect the US dollar from further decline. 

This is how I see it playing out in my head . 

British pound to 180?????

British pound appears to be in a wave  3 that could extend up to 180+ Despite all the talk of a strong US dollar. We are however very close to the uptrend line channel that wave 3's normally tend to trade. Trgts come in on the downside @ 16866-16878.  

Position currently long at 16884

Dec cotton trade…

Dec cotton has pushed to the lowest target in a w3 so If this is a reg wave 3 of 1.618 we should see a deep w4 start soon.  Premium bought 63.95 dec

Euro currency low risk trade

The euro is currently at a possible bottom here at 13375 and in my opinion a small risk high reward scenario. Premium bought 13375…

Sugar update…

Sugar still looks to be in the last and final leg down in a c wave of wave 2. Commonly i find that wave 2's especially in commodities will often retrace .786 of w1 and sometimes further. My targets come in from 16.33-16.46 for and end to this w2. 

Unhappy with your current broker????want 2 see a window into how I trade… I will be more than happy to work for you in refining your trading techniques. It will be my pleasure. 

Email: Commoditykid@gmail.com 

Euro currency…bounce coming

Sept euro currency looks to be ready to bounce here possibly back to the 13560. Let's see if we do. 

Weekend look at nat gas

Sept daily nat gas…

Natural gas is holding a .786 at around the 3.77-3.74 area for a possible deep wave 2 of major wave 3.  This flat count would be invalidated on a break below the low made back in nov 2013. As long as we hold and do not break this level wave two could finish at any time…