The federal reserve isnt going to raise rates......

Dec euro $ interest rate vehicle for 2017

Dec euro dollar is looks to be finishing up the wave 5 of 5 of 5and I expect this interest rate decline to stop somewhere in the vicinity of 98.28 and 98.52 if the recent high is taken out.

The U.S. dollar… I don't believe the hype

The dollar appears to be creeping up into the prior wave 4 so let's see if we respect this level… I do believe we are topping here in the 92.50-95.00 range

Natural gas… contracting ending diagonal

The 15min chart above of natural gas looks to be a textbook contracting ending diagonal that could get a throw over of the lower trendline and then a reversal back towards the minimum of 3.20-3.50 area for a w4 before the next slide could resume. 

Orders to buy at 2.76-2.80

The lower chart is the hourly chart and the connecting trendlines are connecting 1 and 3 on the bottom and 2 and 4 on the top… 

canadian dollar....... are we set to move back towards 90?

 Above is a look at the march Canadian dollar and by my count I can clearly see five waves down to and a possible end  to the downside with a move to back towards 90. lowest target would be 8395 per march contract. Lets see where we go

Natural gas… is this w2 over?

Natural gas has currently held the .786 price level for a possible deep wave 2… if this is the case a wave 3 should take over to the upside with a target of the 10-11 range in a 5 wave sequence,and will give plenty of opportunities to buy.  

******Not to mention an extreme long position in the commercials as seen below could turn this market at any time…

Good trading

CK

watching the sugar for some support

sugar is coming up on some support and a possible end to this zig zag for wave 2 @ 1408-1417. ( per march contract.

Also a quick note here…the commercials are at an extreme for net longs here… 

Natural gas… completed 5 waves down?

Nat has has completed what appears to be 5 waves down with the gap down this evening to finish up the c leg lower; if this count is correct the w3 of w3 should take over… I'll be posting a chart a bit later…

 

Position :long nat gas …feb and March contracts from 335-340. 

Good trading

will march corn to bottom in mid jan ??????

 -Above is a look at the daily corn chart for march and the scenarios that could play out . the first scenario if infact corn has completed the wave 4 of the 5th is that we try to make a break back toward the low and and fall short of the contract low. (truncation) .
Second scenario is that wave 5 moves the distance traveled by wave 1 which will breach the low by a couple cents to 325.
The third scenario has 2 targets that that are very close as they come in at 2770-2820.  There is a report on wed so I will be watching this market as I believe a long term bottom could not be far off.
the only thing that would invalidate this current count is that 447.25 cannot be taken out.  time frame for this to occur will be roughly be around the middle of jan for corn to bottom out.

Lets see  how we play out  
good trading
CK

Apple stock topping out???

Apple stock looks to be within a topping range here and I will be starting a short position in the price range from 117-125 as the short side risk to reward is getting very favorable. 

Good trading

CK

march bean oil at a glance

 Was looking at the bean oil chart and it looks interesting.


on the daily chart march bean oil is looking like its currently trading in a corrective wave and could be about finished and ready to resume lower price action.today I will be looking for a rally back to the 3380-3418 area and possibly higher if the high of 35.39 is taken out. im leaning more toward that 3380-3418 resistance holding.( target on the low side comes in at 2827)

good trading
CK

natural gas...... setting up for a push higher

 natural gas has been very choppy as of late and it is looking like we are putting in a wave 2 expanded flat as labeled above in this 60 min intra day chart. this looks to be setting up as a textbook formation and as I watch this possible 3rd wave unfold i will need a push to the 409 level and then a bounce in a 4th wave followed by a decline somewhere in vicinity of 390 to 404. after complete we should see a reversal back to the high of 364 and breakout in a wave 3 to a first target of 540.

good trading
CK
for more trade set ups feel free to write at commoditykid.gmail.com

Is cocoa getting rdy to sprint higher?

Want my count drop me a note…

Japanese yen update…

Almost got the bottom in the Japanese yen son the buy at 8423 per my last post… yen rallying nicely and this final 5th wave lower may have finished out. If so this could be a very nice trade. 

Good trading

CK

Euro currency … update.

                       

                         

My original thought is that we were putting in a 4th wave 3-3-5 expanded flat but it seems that we are in a 5th wave of w3. with a deep 4th to come. Trgts for the 5th wave to end come in at (12325 12273 and max at 12151 .) Or a truncation may occur. All three options are still on the table…Still about s 100 pts from my trgt 

Then we get a 4th wave correction possibly taking us back to the 130 level…. 

updated corn for march contract daily... are we ready to start the 5th wave down ?

 

MARCH CORN

The daily chart of march corn above there are several scenarios that could take place .  We are currently trading at around the 377 area and I would very much like to see march corn take out 400 to complete the upside push and then fail here and retest the low. My targets come in at 326 and then max out at 283.00.  I like the 283 target area a bit more if we can manage to push mrch corn above the 4.00 price as this would align the weekly chart with the daily shown above to the exact price. either way we will be in a 5th wave down and we can do one of 3 things so i am still watching as of now and if targets are reached i will be moving back into the corn market and building a position. 

(for this count to stay validated corn must not breach the wave 1 low of  447 1/4.)

good trading

Japanese yen… adjustment in price target

In my last post I gave a bad target of 8493… after looking over charts this weekend I have lowered my target to 8423… this would be the .618 target of w1-w3.  So we still have about 160-180 points until my downside target is hit.  This is actually in line with with the dollar as we still have room on the $ to move higher to a target of 89.23.  Both the targets are derived from the dec contracts.  

Good trading

CK

japanese yen target .... bottom in sight?

The japanese yenlooks to be very close to putting in a bottom as we are currently closing in on a downside target of 8493 and I will be taking a long position here as I believe the 5th wave will complete here. (again this is a low risk trade as I will be risking about 30-40 points on the downside.)

 as we still have about 90 points on the down side left to go I will be watching for this target to hit.

Cotton thread…low risk buy?

March cotton has possible ended the 5 of 5 of 5 as it held the 58.65 . As the second target for the 5th and final wave lower. It does present a low risk buy with a stop placed below the day's low …

If we happen to break decisively lower the last target comes in at 54.97… we will see what happens…

Good trading

Euro currency 3-3-5 flat for w4?

The euro currency looks as if we could be putting in a complex 4th wave 3-3-5 formation. If this is the case the next move should be higher in a 5 wave sequence to above the  end of the A wave to a target of 128.50-129.50. To finish this flat formation… I will be buying a break over 12507 intraday as this sets up the wave 3…

Sugar trade… weekly n daily analysis

The weekly sugar chart after a sell off to around the 1330 level back on sept 19 2014 did not breach the low made back in May of 2010 setting up a 1-2 1-2 on the weekly and as luck may have it as of today a 1-2,1-2 is setting up on the daily chart…( for this to stay intact prices must not breach the 1589 level on the March contract as that would negate the 1-2,1-2 count on the daily chart.)

 we also have commercials back to the zero line in this market..  I am looking for much higher prices in the coming years so this scenario would call for a break higher in prices to a target of 18.07 on the daily chart in a w3 of 3 of wave 1. 

(Trade: today I will be adding to my positions in the March contract at 16.04 and May contract at 16.34.  ) to negate this formation mrch would have to break below 1589.  We will see what plays out.

Weekly sugar chart above