natural gas 1,2 1,2........

(Daily )April natural gas

Natural gas has a 1, 2, 1,2 setting up and today may be the day we reverse back to the upside. target on the low side is 2.756 and a break of 304 is needed to set up the  nice run to a target of 348 in a wave 3.

The dollar… setting up to disappoint ?

Again the U.S. Dollar has been chopping around and putting in a triangle formation, with commercials ( smart money )net short.  

Again everyone is under the delusion that the fed is going to raise rates on there own terms and not the markets. 

Apple… 5 waves down intra day

A breach of 125.57 sets up the wave 3 to a target of 124… also a psh down in Apple could take the Nasdaq to close about where we opened which would set up a bearish doji evening star candle to end the week in the Nasdaq.

 

Natural gas… contracting ending diagonal

Natural gas looks to be putting in the final psh down in an e wave today of a contracting ending diagonal. Trgts on the low side are 2.50-2.53 as we will usually get some sort of throw over the lower trendline…. A quick reversal back to the highs of the diagonal should occur 3.33 trgt. 

Nat gas… when is this bounce coming?

Natural gas has been in a corrective phase and looks like a double zig zag and yesterday we hit the 2.67 area and this is where wave c will be equal to wave A * 1.382.  ( note: extremes on the commercial longs for both daily and weekly charts) 

Crude oil… terminal thrust out of the triangle complete?

The thrust out of the triangle may have very well completed today as the target came in at 45.50-45.70. Let's see where we go… my thoughts are up! 

The federal reserve isnt going to raise rates......

Dec euro $ interest rate vehicle for 2017

Dec euro dollar is looks to be finishing up the wave 5 of 5 of 5and I expect this interest rate decline to stop somewhere in the vicinity of 98.28 and 98.52 if the recent high is taken out.

The U.S. dollar… I don't believe the hype

The dollar appears to be creeping up into the prior wave 4 so let's see if we respect this level… I do believe we are topping here in the 92.50-95.00 range

Natural gas… contracting ending diagonal

The 15min chart above of natural gas looks to be a textbook contracting ending diagonal that could get a throw over of the lower trendline and then a reversal back towards the minimum of 3.20-3.50 area for a w4 before the next slide could resume. 

Orders to buy at 2.76-2.80

The lower chart is the hourly chart and the connecting trendlines are connecting 1 and 3 on the bottom and 2 and 4 on the top… 

canadian dollar....... are we set to move back towards 90?

 Above is a look at the march Canadian dollar and by my count I can clearly see five waves down to and a possible end  to the downside with a move to back towards 90. lowest target would be 8395 per march contract. Lets see where we go

Natural gas… is this w2 over?

Natural gas has currently held the .786 price level for a possible deep wave 2… if this is the case a wave 3 should take over to the upside with a target of the 10-11 range in a 5 wave sequence,and will give plenty of opportunities to buy.  

******Not to mention an extreme long position in the commercials as seen below could turn this market at any time…

Good trading

CK

watching the sugar for some support

sugar is coming up on some support and a possible end to this zig zag for wave 2 @ 1408-1417. ( per march contract.

Also a quick note here…the commercials are at an extreme for net longs here… 

Natural gas… completed 5 waves down?

Nat has has completed what appears to be 5 waves down with the gap down this evening to finish up the c leg lower; if this count is correct the w3 of w3 should take over… I'll be posting a chart a bit later…

 

Position :long nat gas …feb and March contracts from 335-340. 

Good trading

will march corn to bottom in mid jan ??????

 -Above is a look at the daily corn chart for march and the scenarios that could play out . the first scenario if infact corn has completed the wave 4 of the 5th is that we try to make a break back toward the low and and fall short of the contract low. (truncation) .
Second scenario is that wave 5 moves the distance traveled by wave 1 which will breach the low by a couple cents to 325.
The third scenario has 2 targets that that are very close as they come in at 2770-2820.  There is a report on wed so I will be watching this market as I believe a long term bottom could not be far off.
the only thing that would invalidate this current count is that 447.25 cannot be taken out.  time frame for this to occur will be roughly be around the middle of jan for corn to bottom out.

Lets see  how we play out  
good trading
CK

Apple stock topping out???

Apple stock looks to be within a topping range here and I will be starting a short position in the price range from 117-125 as the short side risk to reward is getting very favorable. 

Good trading

CK

march bean oil at a glance

 Was looking at the bean oil chart and it looks interesting.


on the daily chart march bean oil is looking like its currently trading in a corrective wave and could be about finished and ready to resume lower price action.today I will be looking for a rally back to the 3380-3418 area and possibly higher if the high of 35.39 is taken out. im leaning more toward that 3380-3418 resistance holding.( target on the low side comes in at 2827)

good trading
CK

natural gas...... setting up for a push higher

 natural gas has been very choppy as of late and it is looking like we are putting in a wave 2 expanded flat as labeled above in this 60 min intra day chart. this looks to be setting up as a textbook formation and as I watch this possible 3rd wave unfold i will need a push to the 409 level and then a bounce in a 4th wave followed by a decline somewhere in vicinity of 390 to 404. after complete we should see a reversal back to the high of 364 and breakout in a wave 3 to a first target of 540.

good trading
CK
for more trade set ups feel free to write at commoditykid.gmail.com

Is cocoa getting rdy to sprint higher?

Want my count drop me a note…

Japanese yen update…

Almost got the bottom in the Japanese yen son the buy at 8423 per my last post… yen rallying nicely and this final 5th wave lower may have finished out. If so this could be a very nice trade. 

Good trading

CK

Euro currency … update.

                       

                         

My original thought is that we were putting in a 4th wave 3-3-5 expanded flat but it seems that we are in a 5th wave of w3. with a deep 4th to come. Trgts for the 5th wave to end come in at (12325 12273 and max at 12151 .) Or a truncation may occur. All three options are still on the table…Still about s 100 pts from my trgt 

Then we get a 4th wave correction possibly taking us back to the 130 level….