June lean hogs wave 4 happening?

June lean hogs are seeing a nice rally close to the highs we saw this month. It appears still to be in a complex wave 4 flat correction if we hold the highs. This is still my main count as of this post. 

$cat in a w2?

$cat looks its  putting in a zig zag for a wave 2 and a break under the 67.24 could move this stock back to 40-50 price range…target for the wave 2 to end would be 102 20-102.50. 

April/June gold is a extended wave 5 rdy to start?

April gold on the daily chart looks to be putting in a deep zig zag for a wave 4… if it is a w4 by no means should we move below 1280.10. As wave 3 did not travel it's full distance then a 5th wave extention should be expected. Very good chance I take a shot on the long side here as reward out weighs the risk here in my opinion.  

Positions. Long June contract 1293.50 

Facebook wave 3 down target approaching

Facebook has played out nicely and the wave 3 target is approaching at 60.00. I will be taking profits on half the position. And the other half will let go as I still believe we head lower…

Intraday wave 2 playing out in nat gas?

Looks like a possible 5 waves up on May nat gas and looks like we may be in a corrective wave 2 intraday… a push back to the highs breaking 442 and 443 today sets up a wave 3 higher to around the 4.60 price range if a full wave 3.

Holding long positions and will be adding on June and aug on a break over these levels mentioned above.  

Quick look at May feeders

Looking at May feeders it appears prices are moving in on my target of 18105 to 18115 for an extended wave 3. 

Normally I do not like selling wave 3,s but the risk reward on this trade will be low so I may step in front of this grinding 3 . Still watching for now.

April fats… wave 4 targets

April fats after chopping around some look to finally be heading lower in the wave 4… targets are 140.71 to 138.83 as I am expecting it to be a deep correction. 

Lean hog… we're in the money

Lean hogs appear to be putting in the wave 4 correction and it should be deep and a complex pattern. Targets are 11975 down to 11552. 

Positions :still holding shorts from low 132's

Natural gas n the golden number…

Natural gas almost hit the exact .618 number today at 4.248 on the May contract and held.. It also closed in what looks like a bullish candle so the wave 4 may have completed today and the wave 5 higher should begin soon. I'm also looking for this 5th wave to extend… 

This is my main count as of now. Once levels are broken on the upside I'll be able to draw targets for the 5th wave impulse.

Interest rates… where do we go from here?

On 3/13/14 I posted a shot at a bottom call for short term interest rates … I am revising my count a bit further out as it looks as if we have completed the "A" wave on dec 2016 euro dollars and currently working on the B wave. All we are gonna need now is the c leg that could possibly take the form of a contracting ending diagonal to finally bottom out interest rates in the May June time frame. 

The lowest target for the b wave would be the 9742-45 area but it's very possible that we have seen the low as of this morning on the contract at 9760 1/2.

I'm still watching this contract as I believe  this will be a great position for a long term ride to higher rates. 

No positions as of yet… patience is the key here.  

Targets if this is the correct count would be a test and possible breach of the old highs at 9870- 9880

Coffee… correcting in a w2

Coffee retracing perfectly… (see 3/15 post) 

 Coffee is getting very close to my first target around 162.50-163.00 and I will be taking profits on my short position. The correction appears to be setting up for a bottom and I will be looking to move back to the long side.  Watching for now. 

Cattle trade…wave 4 targets

Live cattle are finally pushing towards my wave 4 targets of 14075 to 13886 in a deep wave 4… ( April contract)) 

Sugar trade …

Great chance sugar has corrected enough in 1 of my fav setups. I'm currently buying as I have reached my target price of low 17's to high 16's. Now I need a quick reversal and a gring higher into the close

Positions: oct 1752,1753 and resting orders at 1745. 

Copper due for a bounce…

May copper looks to have finished the impulse down and I'm looking for a bounce and possibly a bottom in place . 

As you can see from the chart below , commercial traders are at an extreme on the daily chart and a nice bounce looks like it may be just around the corner.

Natural gas still in wave 4?

Natural gas looks to still be putting in a w4 corrective wave as they are overlapping and definitely not impulsive… 

It will cease to be a wave 4 if we get a push below the 4244 level. Right now it feels like a deep wave 4 as wave 2 was shallow.  We shall see if this is the correct count and if it is the wave 5 up it should be a doozy

Canadian dollar… 5th wave of c leg

The 5th wave of the c leg in this zig zag for a w2 looks almost complete. How can I tell we have broken into the 5th wave? Anytime you see a triangle forming the probability that you are in a 4th wave is very high. We just demonstrated this on the Canadian dollar and a target of 86.50 to 87 can be drawn. Another clue that we may be finishing up is that the commercials are heavy net long as you can see by the chart above.

June Pork… what goes up must come down

The pork has been relentless but it looks as if the 13227-13240 on the upside  is holding for the time being. A second count having June hogs starting the wave 1 @ 87.02 and ending @ 10212 is still a possibility and moves the wave extension to the 13740 area. My first wave extention will be the primary count @ 132.27-40. 

Positions: still holding short from 132.30 and 132.15. 

Pork top in place last night?

After watching pork for a while we have finally hit a price that may provide some good overhead resistance as my price target for wave 3 of three has been hit at 132.20-30 as stated in my last pork update.

 If this indeed is the correct count then we should see a deep wave 4 to 1st target of 119.10 and second target of 115.00. While wave 3's are dangerous to short the risk reward on this trade seems to be at a great ratio to trade. 

As of this writing we are currently 132.425 on June lean hogs…

Positions : short June from 132.15, 132.30 . 

Cup and handle setup for dec corn

Dec corn looks like after small 5 waves up we are in the process of making a cup and handle formation to bottom corn out. It appears we are in a possible zig zag for a wave 2. Target price for dec corn are 468.1/4. And once complete we should see a nice rally in a wave 3 of wave 1 on the daiIy chart. 

Dec corn daily chart

Coffee ready to retrace?

After a nice move. Coffee may have completed it's run up and ready for a correction after 5 waves higher. 

Position : short premium @ 2.00

Target: 140-150 in a wave 2 position. 

Sugar … have we finished w2 or w4??

My first thought is that we had a completed w1 and possibly still could have. The second scenario is still bullish but in a w4 that possibly completed today after hitting the .382 retrace this morning. 

Either way I believe we are setting up for the next run higher

Second scenario

Sugar has staged a nice rally to the w 3 target of 1848 and now we have been putting in a wave 4 that hit the trgt this morning of 17.57. Now if we get a full wave 5 we should reach somewhere in the vicinity of 19.17 . 

Interest rate bottom call…? I'll take a shot

Where do I think interest rates are going?… I'm gonna take a crack at a interest rate bottom call… for dec 2014 Eurodollar. I'm projecting a top between 98.40 to 98.60 around the 24 of this month. 

Amazon close to a top???? let's take a look

Amazon is most definitely in the final wave 5 higher but where will the 5th wave end and reverse. What I will be looking for is a complete 5 wave pattern higher. My first target is the 410-420 area assuming that this wave 5 does not truncate. A break below 337 will give us clues that this run higher is complete and a correction is coming

Nasdaq…1-2, 1-2 in place?

Nasdaq appears to be putting in a 1-2 1-2. Resistance at 3726 needs to hold if this count is to stand…. I will be selling a break under 13680 if we hold. 

Canadian dollar in w3 of the (c) leg?

Been a while since I last posted on the Canadian dollar so here goes.  

(Click chart to enlarge)

On the daily chart it looks like we are still in a third wave lower to possibly the 8657 level where I'm looking for a bounce in a wave 4. 

Now let's look at the monthly chart…this picture below shows a triangle being formed and and the 3rd leg of this triangle is close to being complete. 

I'm concluding we may see 8650 or so very soon and most likely to 8460-70 before we turn higher back to a target of 99.00 or so.  

Dag "double agriculture long" has wave 2 completed?

Dag (etf) looks like we have finished or very close to finishing the wave 2 and a w3 higher set to take over. For this count to be correct we must not break below the low made back in 2010. 

A break above 15 is the first clue that the w3 has taken over…

Nasdaq wave 2 intra day?

The Nasdaq futures hit an exact .618 in a possible wave 2 intra day in zig zag. A close near the bottom sets up a w3 lower to the 3620-30 level. 

Pork… do we get w3 extension ? Looks like it

June pork looks as if we are gonna get an extension in w3 of wave 3 that could reach as high as 132.20.  My short I had at 118 n change has been covered and will be waiting and watching this mrkt for the level mentioned above. 

Low Risk , high reward opportunity that's setting up.

The opportunity of a lifetime may be just around the corner… a low risk, high reward probability that may be in the final stages of its long term price movement higher. I watching for a new down trend in prices to take over most likely in the next couple months that should last for the next few years. Interested in learning what I am talking about? ( Email for my prediction)

Pork update… major w3 resistance!

Obviously Pork is still in a w3 of wave 3 higher and has surpassed my resistance lines for a normal third wave of w3.( remember : third waves are made up of 5 waves) The next resistance comes in at 122.40 on the June contract on the major wave 3 target. 

Wave 1 higher complete in sugar today?

Wave 1 in sugar looks to be near completion as my target for October was 1 tick from being hit at 18.78. I will be looking for a wave 2 in the form of a zig zag that would target 17.51-17.28  if we get a full corrective wave 2. 

Very good chance Lean hogs (June) topped today

June lean hogs have topped out today I believe… the wave 4 of three should extend down to the 107-110 level in a quick and deep zig zag. 

Short premium this morning at 11850

Facebook… sale of a lifetime? I think so

Facebook has moved to the 71.20 area for the second time which is the 2.618 of wave 1. This wave 3 extention is rare as w3's usuall go 1.618 of wave 1. 

I'm a seller here!  

April fats… are we in an extended wave 3???

April cattle hit my target of 14615-14630 yesterday and it appears that we are still in the wave 3 higher. I'm still holding short from 144 but the potential for this wave 3 to extend to 149.95 is definitely still there.  I would like to see a break under143.75 to confirm that wave 4 is underway to targets of 140.40 to 138.50. 

June hogs… shorts getting squeezed…wave 3 of 3?

Here's an altered count for June hogs… appears we are in a third wave of the wave 3 . If wave 3 is 1.618 of wave 1 then the wave 3 of 3  target comes in at 117.98. 

Still watching this market as I'm dying to get short but shorting wave 3's are suicidal. 

Oct sugar…closing in on w3 target

Oct Sugar is closing in on the wave 3 target of 1778 to possibly finish the wave 3 of wave 1. Since the wave 2 was shallowim expecting wave 4 of wave 1 to retrace  a full .382 of wave 3. In a complex pattern. (Possibly a triangle)

We have to complete the wave 3 first. As I am looking for a super spike in sugar I will be buying any pullbacks into the high 17's and lower.  

Coffee… 5 waves up completed?

May coffee looks to have completed 3 waves higher on the daily chart and a correction into a deep wave 4 should be coming soon  Trgts are 153.68- 145.26. We should not over lap 144.15 if we are in the 4th wave. This my preferred count as of this writing. 

April live cattle… I'm not panicking

April cattle pushed thru the second target for this 5th wave of the wave 3.  The next resistance level comes in at 146.15-146.30. After this wave three is complete I'm expecting a deep wave 4 to somewhere around the 139 price range. 

Current positions: short April from 144. ( holding) 

Natural gas trade …

Looks like nat gas is putting in the wave 2 of the third wave and we are hovering right at the .618 retracement of the last run up. 

- Bought premium 447 via the May contract. 

Flying pork update and 2nd and third targets for wave 5

Flying June  pigs are extending the 5th wave… here are my targets .my 1st target was around the 108.17-108.50 as posted a while back. Here are the rest of my targets if they really squeeze these shorts. I will start with the most probable target( between 110.485 and 111.425). Max target is 114.30. I'm rdy to short this market on a break of these upper levels.

Natural gas correction targets.

Natural gas looks to have completed five waves up so now I will be looking for a retracement to around the 4.25-4.37 price range. 1st scenario:  If we have a wave 1, wave 2 and wave 3 completed on the May contract then this wave 4 should be a deep correction but should not move below the 4.24 level. This is my main count for now.

Small specs as you can see from the chart above are heavy net long so a deep corrective wave 4  to be in the cards. 

Long term interest rate play

Short term Interest rates (euro dollars )appear to be making one last run at the highs ( low yield ) around the 98.74 area on dec 2016 contract in a final wave 5 of 5 of 5. To end low interest rates for quite sometime. 

5th waves can be tricky as they can develope  in  3 possibilities. I believe that we will retest the highs as the economy sputters along and the fed cranks up the money machine again. A breach of 96.95 on the downside would invalidate this count higher as the 5th wave would be over and higher rates will be in the way…

I will be starting a long term" short" euro dollar interest rate position if and when my targets get hit.

Super sugar…

Sugar appears to be in an impulsive wave 3 of wave 1. If this is the case and correct count we have most likely seen the bottom in the sugar market and the e- wave higher has started.  Targets for the wave 3 of 1 per the oct contract come in at 18.78 on the upside. On a pullback to the low 17 cent range I will be starting a position trade as I believe we will be going much much higher in the next couple years....