Dec corn… 1st target hit

Dec corn has hit the first target of 472…where wave A= wave C. 

Position taken (dec )buying premium 472.0. To start new position… next lower target comes in 466. 

Dec corn… w2 in progress ?

Dec corn looks to have completed wave 1 and now look to be working on a wave 2. Most likely in a zig zag or possibly in an expanded flat. Will watch how this plays out. 

Observation : all the grain markets look like they are putting in w2's. 

Nat gas… update

Nat gas is looking like the 4th wave  of the c leg down could be in progress. Now the question is do we truncate the 5th wave. It looks like there is a good chance of it happening, as I believe a 5th wave extension higher is coming soon.  

OJ targets hit…

OJ targets were hit this morning and I'm currently buying premium at 155.00 per sept contract. We will see where we go, I'm thinking up

A few markets that could be setting up

So in the past few weeks we have several markets that could be in the last stages of their decline. OJ nat gas and corn. 

First off dec corn is creeping up on my 1st target zone for wave 2 that comes in @ 466-472. 

OJ is also creeping up on a downside trgt of 154-155 per sept contract. Intraday what I'd like to see is w4 up and then w5 down to set up the buy at 154-155. 

And finally nat gas has completed 1-2-3-4 waves down and working on the 5th wave lower. 5 th waves are tough so I will be watching the intraday for 5 waves down to finish the last leg of the flat or we may end this final 5th wave in an ABC. A push back towards yesterday's low could very well get me to add to positions

Didn't have time to run charts , but I will be updating these markets frequently. 

Wave 3 grinder in OJ ????

Orange juice looks like a nice grinding wave 3 and 1st targets come in around the 183-184. If this is in fact the case this will drive the bears crazy… 

Holding long positions

Dec corn wave 2 forming?

After playing around near the highs Dec corn looks like we are starting the C leg down of the w2. 1st Target comes in at 466 1/4. I will be waiting for this market to set up for the start of the w3 higher as I believe it's gonna be a good one. 

(If wave C is equal to wave A then my target moves up a tad to 472.00. )

Facebook c wave starting soon?

Facebook looks to have completed the A and B waves and now a break below 54.66 should be followed by a drop to the 44-47.50 price range in a C wave to complete the 4th wave. I will be looking to take profits at this level on remaining $FB shorts. 

Sugar Rush… is the 5th wave underway?

The triangle looks to have finished with the false breakdown in an e wave then reversal. 1st target comes in @19.51 and that would break the prior wave 4 opening the door to 23-24. 

Nat gas…Wave 4 flat correction ?

Nat gas looks to be in a w4 flat…I'm looking for a possible target to come in around 325-330 if this count is correct I will be looking for a 5th wave extention higher to possibly start soon. 

Sugar trade.… will the E wave finish today??

Sugar still looks to be drawing out this wave 4 triangle with the E wave possibly ending yesterday as we broke thru the bottom trendline at 17.27 on the July contract. If this is a head fake to the downside (which ewaves will sometimes do)we should see a reverse and close back over that 17.27 level in the next few days. If not then prices cannot penetrate under 16.82. 

If we get this scenario then we most likely are looking at a w2 of the first wave. 

As of now the wave 4 is still in play…

Intermission

Will be taking a small break and do some turkey hunting… I'll be posting later on in the week.,as I'm still watching for the sugar market and natural gas to begin heading higher. Wave Counts pointing higher for both markets are still in play. 

Trade well

CK

Is the cup finally completed on corn??

Corn looks to have completed wave 1 and now I will be looking for 5 waves lower for a wave A.  Then a wave B, followed by the final wave C down to a possible 1st target of 4.45 1/4. Let's see how we play out. 

Interest rate futures C wave to begin?

Interest rate futures are (per my last post ) and a possible bottom at or around  the 1st of June are moving in the right direction and interest rates are moving lower. Today's number may very well get this c leg impulse started so I believe it's not gonna be as good as some are projecting. 

As you can see a decisive break above 125 will be my first clue that the c wave is underway.  

Feeders wave 3 of 5 extention in play

Aug Feeders formation is becoming more clear and look to be in a w3 extention on the daily chart and could target as high as 200.25 so I'm still waiting on this market to finish this 3rd of the 5th wave higher. It's not uncommon for 5th waves in commodities to extend… After this a sharp correction should be in the works for the 4th wave of the 5th.  

Dow jones expanding diagonal e wave finishing

Starting to look like a expanding diagonal on the daily chart with ABCD and the E wave in progress .  targets for the Dow come in at 16704 today if we get a full e wave to the trendline. E waves tend to push over the upper trendline … will be watching here as I will be getting short the futures if these numbers come close to hitting in the $DJI

June lean hogs… ready for next decline or a bit higher????

June lean hogs look to have two scenarios that are possible 

The first is another leg lower in a c wave that could move as low as 110 . I'll be watching for A break of 12147 as this is the current b wave…

Scenario 2 - is that we move a bit higher to the 130 area before we resume the correction in a 5 wave decline. 

 What I would like to see:

The best case scenario would be a push higher to the 130 area as this would be enough for a 3-3-and a final wave 5 down to the 110-115 price target to complete the flat wave 4. 

Natural gas setting up the w3

Wave 3 looks to be setting up…  bought June  premium 482.   Come on wave 3!!!!! 

Lumber… 5 waves down complete

July lumber looks as if 5 waves down has completed… so now I'll be watching for a possible wave 2 to form. 1st target would be 350 -358 if this count is correct. 2nd scenario We also could be looking at a w 2 flat where the prior w4 at  348.10 will protect the top side and hold. 

July daily lumber

Feeder cattle update… it's a grinder!

Thought we had her this morning but… not so fast. Bummer! 

While the daily feeder cattle chart looks a bit like we are still in a w 3 of the third wave higher , with the w4 and 5th wave yet to come of the impulse. 

The weekly chart appears a bit different. By different,  I'm seeing 5 waves up  that looks very close to topping out and ready to begin a deep complex correction in a possible wave 4. 

You will see that the trendlines drawn between wave 1 and wave 3 intersect at the highs today with a small throw over. Usually wave 5s like to end in these areas.  (What I'm now looking to see is 5 waves down on a intraday chart) just have to wait on this one

Christmas corn update… take 3… to the charts

1st scenario and the best in my opinion would be a push higher to the 534-535 area to finish the 5th wave higher of the first wave. And a completed cup formation.

2nd scenario is we fail on the attempted breakout of the b wave at 505 3/4 and retrace to the 483 level as target 1 then move higher to 533-35 to complete the cup and 5 waves up.  The chart below can give you an idea of what I'm projecting.

Wave 4 flat developing in the Dow ?

                    Wave 4 ? 

This is starting to look like a w4 flat in the making on the Dow in an expanded triangle with with A B C complete, with the d wave up in progress. Now we need to see if this D wave will fall short of the upper trend line and start down. I'm betting it just might. 

Positions: Short position taken @ 16462. 

We will see what happens. 

August feeders… wave 3 coming to a close?

August feeders are counting as prices may be close to putting in a top around the 184.25 level to finish this wave 3. A deep correction to at the least 72 price area should occur if this count is correct. As you know I normally don't like to get in the way of wave 3's as they can extend but I may take a small position in this market @ around 84.00. As I believe this is the end of a w3 extention here. Watching for now. 

Dec corn update… so close

Almost hit my price at 484-485… there is still hope so I'm waiting to enter this market closer to my price target as we could be starting the c leg down of the zig zag wave 2… if 506 3/4 gets taken out I might begin to add to my long position . 

OJ futures magazine post jan 28th 2014…

http://www.futuresmag.com/2014/01/28/enjoy-your-orange-juice-today-tomorrow-it-might-be

Yum brands top in sight????

Yum brands looks very close to finishing the upside run in a w3 , or more likely a wave c. Either way a correction is coming and possibly after yum brands reports a good number and the stock spikes. Trgt on the upside is 79.45 if we get a full wave 3.  I will be placing orders to sell on a push to these levels. 

Not to mention this stock most likely will not react good to these higher commodity prices that are definitely coming…

10 yr note…rdy to see the last push lower in rates?

Daily chart looks like the 10 yr June contract may look for a bottom around the 12306 price range as I'm still expecting a rally ( or rates to fall back) to a price range of 12703-12814 and finally bottom by the end of May start of June time frame. Looks very much like 1234 and the 5th wave down in the making. It is very possible that we hold here and reverse today.

Watching for a setup   

May lumber update…

May lumber looks like it may be finishing the 5th wave down in a contracting ending diagonal setup to end around the 312.00 area. Would like to see this e wave lower start soon. May add if we push down to these levels and this is the correct count… I should find out in the next couple days if I my count is right…

Dec 2016 euro dollars update…

Dec 2016 euro dollars could be ready to start the c leg or wave 3 higher of the final push up in the wave 5 of 5 of 5 to finally bottom interest rates. I will be watching this market closely as I believe that I will have a great opportunity to ride an interest rate rise. We will see… the count remains the same as my last update on march 24 2016

Dec corn update… this could get very exciting!

Dec corn looks to have started the next leg down. Targets for the downside are 484-485 price range. This is where I expect to see a reversal and a move back toward and breakout of the last high at 5.17 into a w3. As I expect much higher prices over the next couple years. 

Natural gas wave 3 breakout possibility

Natural gas ilooks to be setting up a w3 higher after breaking the .618 and and the B wave …now to break .786 and 1.00 would set up a wave 3 to a target of 590 n change. 

a break of 4754 on June contract sets up the wave 3…

Risk - Reward

Here's my low risk trade today… 

Sugar after a good day on wed is giving it back today but seems to be holding the 1724 area by a point… on the July contract. I'm currently buying this mrkt as I believe the risk is low as my target is above 20.10. 

My Trade today : Buying July sugar at 1732 33 with a stop below 1680. A risk of 1 to make 5.  

We will see how we play out…. 

1-2 1-2 in place? For spx and Dow

All the indices are setting up the same way… just looking at the Dow jones June futures for now though. What may be developing is a 1-2 1-2. The only thing that would invalidate this count would be a push above 16384. ( main count)

The second count is this very well could be the up leg of a wave 4 flat and we have ABC down followed by an ABC up to end around the 16427 area then a 5 wave move down. (For now this is looking like a  1-2 1-2 is in play…). 

Small position short at 16325

Cup of corn

Dec Corn is still looking like a cup and  is getting ready to finish up. a push to 537 dec contract would be the ideal set up before we get the wave 2 handle that would target 471-480 on dec corn.

  It's very possible that we have finished the cup and the handle wave 2 will be next to come.  Anyway I am still looking for much higher prices within the next 1-2yrs. 

Update hard red spring wheat after bottom call on 1/29

Above is my current short term count for red spring wheat. Currently we look to have possibly completed the wave 4 and a push higher in a wave 5. Targets are around the 821 area. This will conclude the wave 1 of wave 3 ,then we need a wave 2 correction to follow in the form of a flat. Let's see if this plays out like I think it will… 

Sugar… more down or are we finished a wave 4?

Sugar looks to finally finishing this triangle wave 4 of the 1st wave higher. A drop to 17.25 is not out of the question but after I am expecting a new high over 19.26 to a possible target of 19.81 after a breakout of the triangle in a 5th wave. 

The topping of $cat???

$CAT looks to be putting in a finishiing C wave of a zig zag. I was looking at this market in my first post on this stock as I believe we will see a nice correction in a c wave or a w3 that could push us down to the 60-65 price range.1st target @102.50 was hit and 2nd Target on the upside  comes in at 105.65 .Currently trading @ 103 n change. 

FB update ABC correction in the works?

Facebook short term count is that we have finished the the A wave down and currently in the process of the B wave higher in the form of a ABC zig zag. This could target the 63-65 level. 

 After this is completed we should see a psh down to the 51.40 area and possibly lower to the second target of 44.88. That being said I'm not a buyer at these levels. 

2nd target for w4 June pork (deep zig zag)

Lean hogs are closing in on the next target at 115.30-115.80.…for the wave 4. I'm expecting a bounce and even a possible reverse from this level. Watching for now and if the lower targets are hit I will consider buying this market…

Sugar set to move higher????

Sugar may have put a bottom in today… the lowest target intra day is the 1726-28 area. It's starting to look like a wave 4 triangle. With the wave 5 to come.

Current count as of now is we are in a complex w4…

Best case scenario is we have seen wave 1 and wave 2 is finishing up with a w3 targeting 2242 if we get a full wave 3. 

Corn almost finished with w1 ?

Dec corn is setting up beautifully. 

Almost hitting my target of 509 1/2  from the wave 4 triangle breakout. 

 I'm currently long and will be looking for a spot to add to my position on the pullback that could start soon.

 Best case scenario and one I would like to see is that we have a run up to around 533 n change on an extended 5th wave and then the pullback into a w2 zig zag that should target the 470-480 price range. Once we start the correction I can be more precise in drawing my targets. 

Lean hogs … closing in on w4 trgts

June lean hogs are closing in on my 1st target at 11975.

Resting orders to close position at 11975.  

Coffee… are we seeing the w2 starting to form

Coffee looks ready to start the c leg lower after the spike this morning to the 196 area.  Target for the c leg down is the 13518 to the 150 level to finish the wave 2 . First I'm gonna need a break of 166 on the downside to confirm the wave c down  is underway.

Watching for now

Crude setup… will we reverse back higher ?

Crude oil has set up this morning for a long trade on one of my fave setups intra-day… let's see if we start moving higher after this mornings sell off.

Long position June  from 99.66. 

Quick look at Disney stock

$dis has gone far enough and actually thru the 1st wave 3 target of 68.50-69.00 to qualify for a full wave 3.  The second wave 3 "extended" target is 93.20-93.50. I'm still watching this market as I believe we are very close to a top here in the third wave with a w4 target to come in around the 60.00 price range. 

No position as of yet

Guess who awake… and hungry

After scoring new highs we have 5 waves down completed and possibly a w2. A close near the intra day lows or even a breakdown could send us lower to a target of 15449 if a full wave 3. 

Holding short 

Dow futures… will it take out 16540?

Yesterday's post regarding the Dow futures in still in play, but may possibly be invalidated. A push above the 16540 area will do this. If a new high is achieved the daily chart is showing a ABC to finish the 5th wave of wave 3. Trgt where A=C is 16560. 

Side note- Intraday 1 min chart shows a completed or very close to completed 5 waves up.

Positions holding short…

Lumber… where we going from here?

While looking over some charts tonight I came across the lumber chart and it caught my eye. I will be watching this market as I believe this thing could get rolling higher very soon. (Small position opened 332.90) 

Detailed wave counts on this mrkt with targets. Commoditykid@gmail.com n I'll send you my current count.

Facebook… update wave count

Facebook is looking great and I'm looking for the start of the c wave lower to around the 44-47 area as this was the prior wave 4.  (Still Holding short ). 

Order placed to sell under prior low at 59.00

Dow futures wave 2? Or are we moving on up?

Dow futures are still in a possible wave 2 correction… a breach of 16540 would negate this count… let's see how we play out.  I would really enjoy seeing this market put this wave 4 in… a push below 15979 opens the door to further declines. Targets would be the prior wave 4 near 14500. 

Weekly chart

Canada$… is w5 down ready to start?

Looking at the June Canadian dollar. The daily chart looks like a complex wave 4, with the last 5 wave up move happening now. My Upside targets come in at 9125 to 9180  to possibly finish the formation and then the reversal lower.  I will be watching here as I believe we are in the last stages of a c wave that targets the 8597 on the downside. 

Natural gas updated count

Natural gas with the recent push down appears to be in overlapping waves and looks like we are forming a wave 2 of wave 3. Targets for this wave on the downside are 4.248 down to 4.073 

april gold / june gold count modification.

As of this morning my first count invalidated as prices slipped below my 1280.10 price by about 3 bucks. the other related count was that we are still in a wave 4 deep zig zag but wave 1 ended at 1255.10 which would keep this count valid.  The other scenario is that this could very well be wave 2 as it qualifies on being deep enough and a zig zag which wave 2's often are. either way ill be watching for prices to push higher.

-  holding long june from 1293

Count for April gold…w2 or wave 4?

April gold moved as low as 1282.40 as of this writing and has yet to crack that 1280.10 level and the count currently remains as a wave 4. If however we do manage to trade underneath this price of 1280.10 then my count will change to a possible wave 2 zig zag. (Normally Wave 2's usually move 618-.786 of wave 1) this would move the target on the low side to 1227-1262.7. For now though I'm counting this as a deep wave 4   Positions holding long for now. 

Dec corn upside trgts…

Well that was quick -dec corn truncated the 5th wave down intraday to possibly complete the daily triangle and breaking out… upside target for dec corn 509 1/4…

Christmas corn setting up

Dec corn looks looks to be in the wave 3 lower of a corrective c wave of a flat forming that is near completion… Once this formation is complete I will be looking for much higher prices. Lowest downside target is 4681/2-472. 

As you can see buy the intra day 5-min chart the impulse down is plain to see and a push back to 4801/2 to 482 will be needed to move us out of the impulse down and set up one last leg lower. This will set up my trade. 

June lean hogs wave 4 happening?

June lean hogs are seeing a nice rally close to the highs we saw this month. It appears still to be in a complex wave 4 flat correction if we hold the highs. This is still my main count as of this post. 

$cat in a w2?

$cat looks its  putting in a zig zag for a wave 2 and a break under the 67.24 could move this stock back to 40-50 price range…target for the wave 2 to end would be 102 20-102.50. 

April/June gold is a extended wave 5 rdy to start?

April gold on the daily chart looks to be putting in a deep zig zag for a wave 4… if it is a w4 by no means should we move below 1280.10. As wave 3 did not travel it's full distance then a 5th wave extention should be expected. Very good chance I take a shot on the long side here as reward out weighs the risk here in my opinion.  

Positions. Long June contract 1293.50 

Facebook wave 3 down target approaching

Facebook has played out nicely and the wave 3 target is approaching at 60.00. I will be taking profits on half the position. And the other half will let go as I still believe we head lower…

Intraday wave 2 playing out in nat gas?

Looks like a possible 5 waves up on May nat gas and looks like we may be in a corrective wave 2 intraday… a push back to the highs breaking 442 and 443 today sets up a wave 3 higher to around the 4.60 price range if a full wave 3.

Holding long positions and will be adding on June and aug on a break over these levels mentioned above.  

Quick look at May feeders

Looking at May feeders it appears prices are moving in on my target of 18105 to 18115 for an extended wave 3. 

Normally I do not like selling wave 3,s but the risk reward on this trade will be low so I may step in front of this grinding 3 . Still watching for now.

April fats… wave 4 targets

April fats after chopping around some look to finally be heading lower in the wave 4… targets are 140.71 to 138.83 as I am expecting it to be a deep correction. 

Lean hog… we're in the money

Lean hogs appear to be putting in the wave 4 correction and it should be deep and a complex pattern. Targets are 11975 down to 11552. 

Positions :still holding shorts from low 132's

Natural gas n the golden number…

Natural gas almost hit the exact .618 number today at 4.248 on the May contract and held.. It also closed in what looks like a bullish candle so the wave 4 may have completed today and the wave 5 higher should begin soon. I'm also looking for this 5th wave to extend… 

This is my main count as of now. Once levels are broken on the upside I'll be able to draw targets for the 5th wave impulse.

Interest rates… where do we go from here?

On 3/13/14 I posted a shot at a bottom call for short term interest rates … I am revising my count a bit further out as it looks as if we have completed the "A" wave on dec 2016 euro dollars and currently working on the B wave. All we are gonna need now is the c leg that could possibly take the form of a contracting ending diagonal to finally bottom out interest rates in the May June time frame. 

The lowest target for the b wave would be the 9742-45 area but it's very possible that we have seen the low as of this morning on the contract at 9760 1/2.

I'm still watching this contract as I believe  this will be a great position for a long term ride to higher rates. 

No positions as of yet… patience is the key here.  

Targets if this is the correct count would be a test and possible breach of the old highs at 9870- 9880

Coffee… correcting in a w2

Coffee retracing perfectly… (see 3/15 post) 

 Coffee is getting very close to my first target around 162.50-163.00 and I will be taking profits on my short position. The correction appears to be setting up for a bottom and I will be looking to move back to the long side.  Watching for now.